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Pattern Fab Feb

Mitch West said:
Y’all go look at the end of the Euro 18z
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Lol just another 1052 High that's going to screw us.

It's good seeing the pattern so suppressed and also the block showing up in E/C Canada. That's much better than north Greenland, especially at this range.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol just another 1052 High that's going to screw us.

It's good seeing the pattern so suppressed and also the block showing up in E/C Canada. That's much better than north Greenland, especially at this range.
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That high won’t be that strong as it approaches time.
 
Here's the 18z WeatherNext Ensemble run. About like the last run. It does show some late blooming snow in E GA into the Carolinas (it only has a total snow product on SV...doesn't have a 48hr one)

I'm kind of mixed on this setup. Pattern is there. Suppressed storm track is there. High potential is there. Like wow has mentioned I believe, I'd like to see the southern stream wave be stronger as it works thru the western ridging and the Rockies. That helps with its ability to dig into the SE and turn the corner. If the wave is weak, it gets bullied as it's trying to dig and isn't able to assert itself into a storm. Ideally, the wave is either quite strong and goes about digging and tilting itself....or it's moderately strong and the western appendage of the TPV drops in and phases with it (or a combo of those scenarios!). The GFS AI products seem to have the strongest southern wave in the various model runs as it works SE. CMC was pretty good with it too. On to the 00z's

Jan 24 WN 18z.gif

Jan 24 WN 18z Snow.gif
 
griteater said:
Here's the 18z WeatherNext Ensemble run. About like the last run. It does show some late blooming snow in E GA into the Carolinas (it only has a total snow product on SV...doesn't have a 48hr one)

I'm kind of mixed on this setup. Pattern is there. Suppressed storm track is there. High potential is there. Like wow has mentioned I believe, I'd like to see the southern stream wave be stronger as it works thru the western ridging and the Rockies. That helps with its ability to dig into the SE and turn the corner. If the wave is weak, it gets bullied as it's trying to dig and isn't able to assert itself into a storm. Ideally, the wave is either quite strong and goes about digging and tilting itself....or it's moderately strong and the western appendage of the TPV drops in and phases with it (or a combo of those scenarios!). The GFS AI products seem to have the strongest southern wave in the various model runs as it works SE. CMC was pretty good with it too. On to the 00z's

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Appreciate you sharing these runs. Super encouraged to see this, can’t think of any better look at this point. If we miss to the south then so be it, just cannot handle losing another one to the mid atl
 
griteater said:
Here's the 18z WeatherNext Ensemble run. About like the last run. It does show some late blooming snow in E GA into the Carolinas (it only has a total snow product on SV...doesn't have a 48hr one)

I'm kind of mixed on this setup. Pattern is there. Suppressed storm track is there. High potential is there. Like wow has mentioned I believe, I'd like to see the southern stream wave be stronger as it works thru the western ridging and the Rockies. That helps with its ability to dig into the SE and turn the corner. If the wave is weak, it gets bullied as it's trying to dig and isn't able to assert itself into a storm. Ideally, the wave is either quite strong and goes about digging and tilting itself....or it's moderately strong and the western appendage of the TPV drops in and phases with it (or a combo of those scenarios!). The GFS AI products seem to have the strongest southern wave in the various model runs as it works SE. CMC was pretty good with it too. On to the 00z's

View attachment 188755

View attachment 188756
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giphy.gif

Who’s ready to suffer tracking this storm!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
griteater said:
Here's the 18z WeatherNext Ensemble run. About like the last run. It does show some late blooming snow in E GA into the Carolinas (it only has a total snow product on SV...doesn't have a 48hr one)

I'm kind of mixed on this setup. Pattern is there. Suppressed storm track is there. High potential is there. Like wow has mentioned I believe, I'd like to see the southern stream wave be stronger as it works thru the western ridging and the Rockies. That helps with its ability to dig into the SE and turn the corner. If the wave is weak, it gets bullied as it's trying to dig and isn't able to assert itself into a storm. Ideally, the wave is either quite strong and goes about digging and tilting itself....or it's moderately strong and the western appendage of the TPV drops in and phases with it (or a combo of those scenarios!). The GFS AI products seem to have the strongest southern wave in the various model runs as it works SE. CMC was pretty good with it too. On to the 00z's

View attachment 188755

View attachment 188756
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Are those things you would like to be seeing this far out though?
 
DopplerWx said:
Appreciate you sharing these runs. Super encouraged to see this, can’t think of any better look at this point. If we miss to the south then so be it, just cannot handle losing another one to the mid atl
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I hear ya. I definitely have always liked that suppressed look in the long range.....however, the "mechanics" for how the storm comes together still has to be there. If the ensemble is spitting out weak moisture along the gulf coast, that is fine if said mechanics are there....if not, it's not necessarily the best look. Again, I think it's 50/50 here, but certainly potential is there
 
griteater said:
I hear ya. I definitely have always liked that suppressed look in the long range.....however, the "mechanics" for how the storm comes together still has to be there. If the ensemble is spitting out weak moisture along the gulf coast, that is fine if said mechanics are there....if not, it's not necessarily the best look. Again, I think it's 50/50 here, but certainly potential is there
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Agreed. Suppression is nice when you have a legit storm, but many forget that suppression and sheered to oblivion are two different things.
 
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