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Pattern Dry July 2024

Up to 10.56” for the month and that’s probably one of the lower totals in Pitt, areas around FarmVille and Ayden / Grifton have seen a good bit more, as well as in town up through Bethel. Almost 6” of that has fallen in just the last 3 days, picked up about an inch yesterday and 0.64” in the early morning hours today.
 
WeatherNC said:
Up to 10.56” for the month and that’s probably one of the lower totals in Pitt, areas around FarmVille and Ayden / Grifton have seen a good bit more, as well as in town up through Bethel. Almost 6” of that has fallen in just the last 3 days, picked up about an inch yesterday and 0.64” in the early morning hours today.
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Yeah I'm actually over 10.5 now and not sure the last time I had that much in a month without a tropical system
 
Metwannabe said:
Yeah I'm actually over 10.5 now and not sure the last time I had that much in a month without a tropical system
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9.71 for July with 1.57 on 6/30. What gets me about my total is the fact it's not being carried by one of those 5-7 inch days that have been fairly common locally it's just been persistent with today being day 8 of rain.

When I look at the models and see a wetter than normal pattern returning early to mid next week I do start to wonder if we are going to do the super wet pattern with a crescendo of a hurricane. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I don't remember many direct cane hits on the carolinas in at least the last 20-30 years that has been preceded by drought. It seems like our drought busters were always gulf hits
 
SD said:
9.71 for July with 1.57 on 6/30. What gets me about my total is the fact it's not being carried by one of those 5-7 inch days that have been fairly common locally it's just been persistent with today being day 8 of rain.

When I look at the models and see a wetter than normal pattern returning early to mid next week I do start to wonder if we are going to do the super wet pattern with a crescendo of a hurricane. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I don't remember many direct cane hits on the carolinas in at least the last 20-30 years that has been preceded by drought. It seems like our drought busters were always gulf hits
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How many legitimate droughts have we had during the summer months over the last 30 years? And would we be talking in terms of drought? D0 or D3 or more over X period of time? Is there a good/easy way to find out?
 
SD said:
9.71 for July with 1.57 on 6/30. What gets me about my total is the fact it's not being carried by one of those 5-7 inch days that have been fairly common locally it's just been persistent with today being day 8 of rain.

When I look at the models and see a wetter than normal pattern returning early to mid next week I do start to wonder if we are going to do the super wet pattern with a crescendo of a hurricane. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I don't remember many direct cane hits on the carolinas in at least the last 20-30 years that has been preceded by drought. It seems like our drought busters were always gulf hits
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That’s actually closer to what I’ve been. 9.89” for the month and outside 3.85” on the 12th, it’s basically been 1-1.5” at a time. I also had 2.3” on 6/30
 
Rain Cold said:
How many legitimate droughts have we had during the summer months over the last 30 years? And would we be talking in terms of drought? D0 or D3 or more over X period of time? Is there a good/easy way to find out?
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@Chazwin named the 3 that stick out right off memory

As for what quantifies drought, you tell me. What I have learned in the past few summers at this board is there is a broad spectrum of what is drought. That said, for this specific exercise I would use extended BN rainfall or the drought monitor being at D0+ at time of impact.
 
2007 is the year that really sticks out to me. The drought lasted through the summer months into late fall and I remember that year having so many burn bans I lost count of them all. August was a month where RDU broke high temperature records on seven different days including the previous all time high temperature record of 105 degrees.
 
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SD said:
9.71 for July with 1.57 on 6/30. What gets me about my total is the fact it's not being carried by one of those 5-7 inch days that have been fairly common locally it's just been persistent with today being day 8 of rain.

When I look at the models and see a wetter than normal pattern returning early to mid next week I do start to wonder if we are going to do the super wet pattern with a crescendo of a hurricane. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I don't remember many direct cane hits on the carolinas in at least the last 20-30 years that has been preceded by drought. It seems like our drought busters were always gulf hits
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1999 had Dennis and Floyd come in from the Atlantic and bust a bigtime drought in NC, but other than those 2 all I can remember were gulf storms to do it. Jerry in 1995 came up through Florida, and Hannah in 2002 came out of the gulf to bust droughts in this area.
 
Rain Cold said:
How many legitimate droughts have we had during the summer months over the last 30 years? And would we be talking in terms of drought? D0 or D3 or more over X period of time? Is there a good/easy way to find out?
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2002 and 2007 come to mind for major droughts. Going back farther 1986 and 1993 were also major summer droughts.
 
Chazwin said:
The 3 that stick out to me are 2001, 2007, and 2011
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2011 was not that bad here, especially June. It did get drier later in July and into August. That was a crazy spring for severe weather of course with 1 after midnight major bowing MCS giving parts of the Charlotte Metro and surrounding areas 80+ mph gusts, among many other events.
 
SD said:
@Chazwin named the 3 that stick out right off memory

As for what quantifies drought, you tell me. What I have learned in the past few summers at this board is there is a broad spectrum of what is drought. That said, for this specific exercise I would use extended BN rainfall or the drought monitor being at D0+ at time of impact.
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Last night's rain came after midnight so day 8 for me as well.

This June was legit drought, .47 the entire month, corn crops lost, I still have dead spots in my yard where the grass didn't just go dormant it all out died. But yeah we do tend to moisten up a good bit before TC head this way, we love to keep it interesting that's for sure lol
 
SD said:
9.71 for July with 1.57 on 6/30. What gets me about my total is the fact it's not being carried by one of those 5-7 inch days that have been fairly common locally it's just been persistent with today being day 8 of rain.

When I look at the models and see a wetter than normal pattern returning early to mid next week I do start to wonder if we are going to do the super wet pattern with a crescendo of a hurricane. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I don't remember many direct cane hits on the carolinas in at least the last 20-30 years that has been preceded by drought. It seems like our drought busters were always gulf hits
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What I find interesting is that there are major totals all across the state from @Metwannabe and at @Downeastnc @WeatherNC and down here in cape fear region. All are over 8 inches and it's not been from one system but just round after round of storms. That's pretty impressive when you look at it.

Typically when I see a WPC qpf map that shows area wide huge totals it never pans out but it did this time
 
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Based on radar alone you’d think this was a tropical system or a cooler season cyclone moving in. Pretty impressive for July. We’ll see if it all can hold together overnight.

On a side note, had two electric thunderstorms yesterday in SW Charlotte, one around 2 pm and another around 8. Also a pretty rare occurrence for the atmosphere to stay that primed this time of year. Typically the first storm would’ve used up all the “juice” as some would say.
 
Many, myself included, forget that it’s a summer pattern and that your neighbors may score while you’re high and dry. I don’t think I’ve gotten the rain that others in my locale have gotten but that’s life!
 
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