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Pattern Dry July 2024

Hope this continues for a week… CLT suburbs
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tractor girl said:
Rained hard east and west and south and north of us. We got maybe 20 minutes of light rain then poof gone. Drought loves drought.
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.14 from that line today. Storms split me so closely the hdr could barely pick up the gap. Incredibly frustrating. That’s the way it’s been the last week. Tuesday it’s literally thundered all around me for hours from noon till about 7.
 
JHS said:
The HRRR is about right for tomorrow. Time to drop pops down to about 20-30% instead of 60-80% tomorrow.
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Both the HRRR and the 3kNAM handled today really well and both are wanting to produce an area of training heavy rainfall late tomorrow evening into the overnight from the upstate to CLT metro
 
Shaggy said:
Only about a 2 to 3 inch difference between the 3knam and the hrrr for today
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It sucks to really attempt to pin down a forecast today. The front is likely to fire off some convection starting around noon through the afternoon but it's going to start to get wavy as the S flow begins pushing against it and it loses all help to get south. A decent shortwave will move NE out of SC and GA after dark so instability is decreasing but forcing is going up. Areas south of the front should be free to fire convection but how long does this stratus hang around and limit overall instability there.

I personally find the shortwave/mcv coming north interesting this evening and overnight. Models aren't super active with it but as it interacts with the old front and starts lifting over it I do wonder if the models are under playing coverage and intensity tonight
 
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