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Pattern Dry July 2024

Thick clouds here as we get ready to approach high noon. Not sure if its debri clouds from out west last night or sign some may luck up in a few hours. Lee side trough development
 
It looks like RDU’s highest today may end up “only” at 97 (high through 4:30PM) though it could sneak up to 98. Comparing to FAY and Winston, that’s not out of line as they have been similar today.
 
It looks like RDU’s highest today may end up “only” at 97 (high through 4:30PM) though it could sneak up to 98. Comparing to FAY and Winston, that’s not out of line as they have been similar today.

Maybe it's only hotter at RDU when the soil is bone dry.


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This wet pattern we were supposed to go into is slowly slipping away. We have gone from 4+ inches to under 2 now on the GFS over much of upstate SC. We probably will not cool off as much as expected either.
 
This wet pattern we were supposed to go into is slowly slipping away. We have gone from 4+ inches to under 2 now on the GFS over much of upstate SC. We probably will not cool off as much as expected either.
You should have expected that. Cut the wet periods in half, when you see forecast highs in the low 80s, add 7 degrees, extend heat waves by 3 days, rinse and repeat.
 
This wet pattern we were supposed to go into is slowly slipping away. We have gone from 4+ inches to under 2 now on the GFS over much of upstate SC. We probably will not cool off as much as expected either.
Why would you put any faith in the GFS, whether one run or a a few. I have heard it called the gonna f,n suck model for so long now. I too get drawn in to the runs where it lays down a good amount of rain but then get put back to reality the next run.
 
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