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Severe DEEP SOUTH Severe Weather threat 18-20th

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This is an interesting setup for sure. Shear is less here, but cape values are very impressive for March.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looks like it's going to be intense watching the storms as they roll in tomorrow. Hoping for the wedge to destroy the tornadic ones as they get close to here.
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Yeah it has my attention given that the worst of it appears at the moment over my area, but we are still out a ways from really seeing how things develop. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. Eagerly awaiting the next outlook from the SPC in about 25-30 min.
 
I wouldn’t be surprised if the ENH gets expanded south into AL and west and central GA later
 
2A091FF5-0E86-45E6-B8F2-DC83DB0432CE.png 95B7DBD1-B417-421A-B8F1-97443595680A.png 3CF8A5C5-76A9-4C1B-A236-8A461E355B59.png 5C5FE51D-73AD-43E8-84FB-AC68F260D28B.png 1291490D-FBB4-4C72-90BB-BCC5A6A74DD5.png It’s the 3KM NAM so take it with a grain of salt, but it’s got a pocket of strong winds at 850mb moving through. It actually gets a bit stronger as it moves thru AL and then into GA
 
Woah, looks bad for northern Arkansas and southern Tennessee.
 
Latest SPC update looks worse. The wedge may not save us after all. Either that or it's going to be a classic case of the SPC predicting worse than what comes to reality.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Latest SPC update looks worse. The wedge may not save us after all. Either that or it's going to be a classic case of the SPC predicting worse than what comes to reality.
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I don't know the wedge usually does save us, and looking at the NAM doesn't look like the dewpoints get out of the 50's for our area. Might be enough for some elevated storms though
 
WeatherLC said:
I don't know the wedge usually does save us, and looking at the NAM doesn't look like the dewpoints get out of the 50's for our area. Might be enough for some elevated storms though
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Latest NAM puts the dewpoints north enough to put Forsyth in the 60s before the storms arrive. I just read FFC's discussion and they seem to be going for a strong wind and large hail risk and low tornado risk. Here's the part about tomorrow:
As vigorous shortwave moves east over TN valley, broad and
unusually strong westerly flow to the south remains in place. In
my experience with severe weather forecasts both here and in the
southern plains, this pattern has a great deal of potential to
produce atypically high instability and very strong deep vertical
wind shear with supercells the dominant mode. It has been over a
year since this area has seen supercell storms of this magnitude
(Jan 22 2017). Large hail and a few tornadoes will be likely.
Given MLCAPE values 2000-2500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of
60-70kts, hail will likely be much larger than the Jan 2017 event
with sizes of 2 to 3 inches likely. If there is a bright side to
this story, it could be the low level shear, 0-1km bulk shear is
only progged of 30-35kts. This is still quite strong and should be
sufficient for a few tornadoes, but unlikely to see the larger
/long-tracked tornadoes that we saw with the Jan 2017 event or
other notable supercell-based tornado events and outbreaks.
Interestingly, CIPS top 15 analogs based on 00Z NAM valid 00Z Tue
do not contain any events in the last 10 years, so could be some
analogs with lower storm report density and thus lower analog
probabilities. Top analogs is Apr 3 1998 which produced widespread
hail over north GA but other dates have hit or miss coverage of
reports and not too many tornado events though there area some.
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The tornado threat depends on how much mixing takes place with the shallow boundary layer moisture. That will be a game time call.
 
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