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Severe DEEP SOUTH Severe Weather threat 18-20th

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I just spent 1200 fixing my car.. not looking forward to any major hail storms. (Why did I not invest in a carport years ago?)
 
whamby said:
I just spent 1200 fixing my car.. not looking forward to any major hail storms. (Why did I not invest in a carport years ago?)
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April 2016 happened to me... And about 50 other cars in the parking lot at work

Softball sized hail verified in the city and the houses even had damage... Craziest thing I've ever seen
 
NAM 12k doesn't look so frightening for East Tn at least... one good strong line... wish this puppy could wrap up sooner and further south.. we'd actually see some snow showers here in CHA. Oh well.
 
TWC has live coverage with Mike Siedel, in Birmingham ! TORCON of 6 for y’all. Looks pretty rough this afternoon! Bham-ATL looks to be the danger zone.
 
All models that im looking at put the best zone in west TN north MS south central into south east TN and parts of NW GA in the enhanced area. HRRR RGEM etc
 
SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
Primary concern is timing and intensity of severe convection. 00Z
and more recent model guidance continue to indicate favorable
parameters for supercells with large hail and a few tornadoes this
afternoon and evening with development of a line of strong/severe
storms after 10pm over NW GA moving SE into ATL metro after
midnight before weakening and perhaps dissipating. Hires models
still not solid on most likely locations of supercells during the
afternoon. Could be a cluster over northern AL and southern TN
moving into northern 1/4th of GA and another cluster over
eastcentral AL and westcentral GA moving into middle GA but our
confidence remains low. Ingredients for supercells will be in
place across all of CWA with MLCAPE ranging from 2000 J/kg over
westcentral GA to 250-500 J/kg over NE GA in area of retreating
CAD air mass. Vertical wind shear quite strong with 0-6km shear
ranging from 50kts over middle GA to 75kts in the far north and
0-1km shear 20kts over middle GA to 30kts in the far north. As
mentioned night before, 0-1km shear in this range could be keep
tornado threat confined to weaker, shorter-lived supercell-based
tornadoes. Significant tornado parameter (STP) values from GFS
coming up to 4-7 over AL/GA border SW of ATL metro, but keep in
mind forecast values typically larger than observed (i.e. SPC RAP
analysis) STP so observed STP values of 2-3 are likely what we
will end up with.

Supercell threat will diminish greatly after 10p with line of
storms expected afterward. However with diminishing low level
convergence, large scale lift and MLCAPE, even this line should
weaken and eventually dissipate by 1-2a.
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FFC
 
Looks like the best window for severe in GA might not be until sunset.
 
That would be crazy to get more thunderstorms here today followed by a chance of snow Wednesday.
 
I feel like this is going to be a bust over metro Atlanta for some reason...maybe bc I want it to be.
 
campamy said:
The sun has been in-and-out here for about the last 45 min. I wasn't expecting to see it this early.
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Don't be surprised to see it do the opposite and actually hurt the tornado threat. While the sun will allow instability, it could allow for drier air to mix to the surface. If air mixing is a problem, we still deal with a big time hail threat.
 
I am now seeing from NOAA that they are expecting supercells to form around 3PM in North Georgia and then later there would be another line of severe storms develop around 8PM or so. Is this what some of you are seeing as well? I am a teacher and I am concerned about kids getting home OK and after school activities. 3PM would be a horrible time for some of these storms to come through. If I remember correctly the big tornado that came through Ringgold, Ga. in 2011 was in a supercell. We are all still a little traumatized by the thought of that happening again.
 
Look at the model data and the 4/10/09 analog, it will be interesting to see how these storms form and begin to turn right.
 
Arcc said:
Don't be surprised to see it do the opposite and actually hurt the tornado threat. While the sun will allow instability, it could allow for drier air to mix to the surface. If air mixing is a problem, we still deal with a big time hail threat.
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I sell insurance, so I actually dislike this!!!
 
mcd0143.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
The most recent MCD from the SPC aligns virtually to perfection w/ sig TOR probabilities for late March

View attachment 4588
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Unfortunately, looks like a real large threat today given the upgrade to moderate later today. Probably would bring us up to enhanced here. HRRR has me worried for hail and tornadoes across the area.
 
Xtreme Weather said:
Last time moderate risk was June of last year I believe...

Pounding the table now stay alert folks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yeah, as I said earlier, these things mean business when they upgrade. If you're in or near this area, stay alert. I may stay up a bit later to make sure my are isn't going to get hit hard.
 
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