Overall at this range I’ll take that look I mean at the end of the day we’re always going to have to deal with some sort of warm nose here comes with the territory unfortunately
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yeah it'll be hard for us to get into the meaty stuff in this setup. Initial moisture surge and upper trough passage would be our only real chance to score. I'd be full of rage but in the end it would snow so you can only be so disappointed
Need help from the nao or the western ridge to be a little more east. We've done well in similar setups this past decade but when not many miles east/west of the western ridge axis or north/south on the amplitude making a huge difference we are going to win some lose some
Stephenb888
Member
The thing that sucks tho is after big +PNA events like that, we love to retrograde the pacific into a dumpster fire
Here it comes on the gefs 
I’m not holding my breath on this system. The GFS is the only model that agrees on something + it’s 10-12 days out. There’s so much uncertainty that unless we get a wide agreement, then it’s just noise.
The euro probably would have had something past D10 but it likely would have been west/Miller b. Until the initial trough gets ironed out the rest like you said is just noise
ForsythSnow
Moderator
What is consistent is the ensembles showing a strong cold blast. They're strengthening as each run happens on the GEFS. It's just down to energy really.
Big difference in the GFS vs GEFS
Gefs is more shallow with the western ridge, which would probably mean a quicker exit, but a cleaner cold shot
Not bad 
Canadian kind of does a similar thing .. I think what we also need to look for is that initial dump of cold air out ahead of the system .. if we can get that high pressure system stronger than this could be a much bigger CAD deal
Sheesh … if the euro jumps on board .. maybe this could warrant an actual thread soon .. I mean every model cycle were all just going to be glued to this time period 
The pac could be a little better but you cant hate on the TPV/EC trough connection, if we get a better ridge towards B.C/NW territories then we could have a legitimate shot at pushing the TPV further south 
Might be a regional battle on the board incoming. Taller ridge like the op gfs has favors Al/ms/ga/upstate due to SER response. Shorter more w-e ridge like the gefs mean probably favors NC with less SER response. TN and the nc mountains win either way.
You guys play nice over the coming days
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
December to Remember.
Gefs snow totals through 252 think just about all scenarios are covered
If this threat period holds on 00z models … I have to put my vote in for a thread
I would wait for a few days.
Way to early man by a mile relax haha
Yeah, it’s way too early. I’d wait until we’re at least under 180 or 150 hours.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
No threads till namming starts
Yeah let's revist Sunday afternoon or Monday morning maybe even Tuesday if there's no consistency
I wouldn’t mind this either last feb proved that for areas east of the apps
My bad my bad I mean I’m not saying it’s going to be a for sure thing event I just figured a thread could be started for a time period we are watching for something to happen for someone all three major models all pointing at this time period for something to happen to someone in the SE .. what that something is who knows but we would have a thread to put all the clunk in every 6 hours but I suppose we making them for for sure events and in that case we clutter the December thread for a few more days
Gonna be hard to do better then this craziness from last run 
The 6Z and 12Z GEFS resumed the colder trends. The near picture perfect MJO forecast continues today from the GEFS for the best chance for cold to dominate the SE per historical MJO stats. The challenge though is the combo of PNA, AO, and NAO. The GEFS still doesn’t have any of them in a favorable position yet although they’ve all trended somewhat in the more favorable direction vs where they had been toward the end of the 2 week forecast period. The first few days of December are showing as a -PNA, +AO, and +NAO combo. However, they all trend a little better late, especially PNA and NAO.
Here’s the near optimal GEFS MJO from today going toward low amplitude 7 and 8:
Here’s the near optimal GEFS MJO from today going toward low amplitude 7 and 8:
I'm all for starting a thread around D7 if the models are all in enough agreement that the threat is there, it's not like starting the thread will change the outcome. I just don't want to start threads for D10-11 then tomorrow evening this thing is dead and 56 people are posting womp, oof, dead, next, turn out the lights, shouldn't have started the thread, 2011, epo, ser, and so on.
Which reminds me our board stretches across a number of states, if the system looks bad for your area that doesn't mean it does for someone else. Can we please not post the this storm is dead imby stuff in the main threads and keep it to whamby. We almost had to start 2 threads last feb and I doubt many people want subregional threads here
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Geez euro is raising heights along the west coast into Canada a little more but it has a new closed wave in AK that might be a problem
Looks like higher heights shallow, lower heights closer to the Arctic, and a donut over AK 
If we can boot that vortex over AK and bridge those higher heights from the west coast into the NPAC, oh man 
Also don’t know if it’ll end up causing any problems but that little wave off of California coast albeit far away but that just randomly popped up
I feel like it's going to screw the whole thing here and drop down the WC
Looks like the overall broad western ridge is gonna save it for us but the process this run isn’t one I’m comfortable with 
It's probably not going to unload the entire arctic into the SE like the 0z but there may be a storm around d10 with some bitter cold lurking along the US/Can border at D10