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Pattern December to Remember

If there is anything we are learning right now, it’s that anything beyond 5 days or so has to be taken with a huge grain of salt and details are not going to be nailed down until inside 3 days. For whatever reason right now, models are struggling with even latching on to overall patterns.
 
Chazwin said:
If there is anything we are learning right now, it’s that anything beyond 5 days or so has to be taken with a huge grain of salt and details are not going to be nailed down until inside 3 days. For whatever reason right now, models are struggling with even latching on to overall patterns.
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We should have learned this many years ago.
 
Chazwin said:
If there is anything we are learning right now, it’s that anything beyond 5 days or so has to be taken with a huge grain of salt and details are not going to be nailed down until inside 3 days. For whatever reason right now, models are struggling with even latching on to overall patterns.
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It's been that way for at least a decade.
 
Brick Tamland said:
It's been that way for at least a decade.
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It's been that way for literally ever. You telling me weather models 10 years ago had better long-range accuracy than one's today? lol. There's so much that weather models cant see, I mean they are literally attempting to predict the interactions between a million frickin variables when there are at least 10 million more they just can't account for. Think of all the small details they don't see that add up into big changes, small topographical changes compounded over long distances, maybe even the interaction between built environments and the atmosphere, or even something like chaos theories butterfly affect.


I mean check this out, this is what goes into weather models. literal chaos theory and disorder. Look at this lorentz attractor. funny I learned about this from an article about dimensions of consciousness. This is weather turbulence modeled, a set of chaotic solutions. I also wonder how small temp changes work. I mean, our weather sensor might read something that rounds too 70.4 degrees, when in reality if we could break up a 1 cubic meter area of air and break that even further into smaller areas and be able to measure the temps in each of those smaller areas we would find so many variations! from 70.4, to 70.3893 to 70.2 to 70.7 etc etc. I mean weather models are just not able to see that stuff.


bumc0016-0162-f03.jpg



www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Dimensions of consciousness

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
 
Lickwx said:
It's been that way for literally ever. You telling me weather models 10 years ago had better long-range accuracy than one's today? lol. There's so much that weather models cant see, I mean they are literally attempting to predict the interactions between a million frickin variables when there are at least 10 million more they just can't account for. Think of all the small details they don't see that add up into big changes, small topographical changes compounded over long distances, maybe even the interaction between built environments and the atmosphere, or even something like chaos theories butterfly affect.


I mean check this out, this is what goes into weather models. literal chaos theory and disorder. Look at this lorentz attractor. funny I learned about this from an article about dimensions of consciousness. This is weather turbulence modeled, a set of chaotic solutions. I also wonder how small temp changes work. I mean, our weather sensor might read something that rounds too 70.4 degrees, when in reality if we could break up a 1 cubic meter area of air and break that even further into smaller areas and be able to measure the temps in each of those smaller areas we would find so many variations! from 70.4, to 70.3893 to 70.2 to 70.7 etc etc. I mean weather models are just not able to see that stuff.


bumc0016-0162-f03.jpg



www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Dimensions of consciousness

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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We need to break the chains of Binary code and elevate ourselves into the realm of cubits to create exponentially more powerful weather models!
 
pcbjr said:
That's 384 hours out ... let's get it here 1st, then and if ... we can start talking about keeping it ... but 1st things 1st ...
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Agreed, but the run is an interesting outlier in that every day of it is BN in the SE. Happy Hour!
 
Ollie Williams said:
I absolutely love the high north of Alaska. If I could only have one teleconnection, that’s the one I’d pick. It was what made February 2014 so cold despite the +NAO, and occasional -EPO.
View attachment 95571
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Yeah it would help funnel the siberian airmass around it and towards North America. Add in a +PNA ridge and it's no wonder we just saw this mammoth of a trough. Nice ridging around towards Greenland as well.
 
SD said:
Most of the good eps trends got erased last night. Blah
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It's all still so far out but I think models have been relatively consistent in showing early December warmth. Now the cold behind it is even further out but it's a possibility that fits with previous nina type years. December 1 is barely under 240 hours right now! 9 days out.
 
Lickwx said:
It's all still so far out but I think models have been relatively consistent in showing early December warmth. Now the cold behind it is even further out but it's a possibility that fits with previous nina type years. December 1 is barely under 240 hours right now! 9 days out.
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I mean with the general trend of the cool season so far for the epo ridge to show then disappear as we get closer it's hard to not go with the models that show the +epo looks. We have a timeframe coming up (week 2 of Dec) where we can buck the trend but like you said a warm period is pretty likely on the back of the cold that should dominate through the next 7 days.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I absolutely love the high north of Alaska. If I could only have one teleconnection, that’s the one I’d pick. It was what made February 2014 so cold despite the +NAO, and occasional -EPO.
View attachment 95571
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It was the biggest reason why 2013-14 sort of bucked the trend for warmer February during -ENSO. Iirc, Florida was baking while we got those 2 storms on Feb 11 and Feb 12-13
 
Prestige Worldwide said:

DT is getting excited fwiw
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You and others can tag me as a weenie for saying this, but this Euro forecasted MJO by itself is downright yummy to me at the end!

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

Even if right, the challenge though will be the NAO/AO/PNA, which the GEFS is currently forecasting to all be unfavorable for SE cold at day 14 (Dec 6th). My hope is that they're off for Dec 6th and/or they will quickly reverse soon after to hopefully make for a cold mid to late Dec.
 
GaWx said:
You and others can tag me as a weenie for saying this, but this Euro forecasted MJO by itself is downright yummy to me at the end!

View attachment 95624

Even if right, the challenge though will be the NAO/AO/PNA, which the GEFS is currently forecasting to all be unfavorable for SE cold at day 14 (Dec 6th). My hope is that they're off for Dec 6th and/or they will quickly reverse soon after to hopefully make for a cold mid to late Dec.
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?
 
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