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Pattern December to Remember

Loganelliott99 said:
Was that a blowtorch ? I dint remember
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No… the week of Valentines had 2 separate storms… CLT actually recorded snowfall 5 consecutive days that week including 3 straight days with at least an inch of snow… there was a lot sleet as well. MBY ended up with 11.4 inches total for the two storms which is exactly 0.1” more than I’ve had in the nearly 8 years since.
 
Poimen said:
My good buddy MFD doing some work...offering some hope.

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If all of these teleconnections materialize like they are and we’re roaming in the phase 7 towards phase 8 MJO … man oh man I can smell the Miller B we could get outta this pattern. I’m impatient but it almost looks fool proof I’m glad we’re at-least seeing fantasy storms a little more frequently 46F975ED-1CF9-4A9B-B9E8-63C201EC0966.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If all of these teleconnections materialize like they are and we’re roaming in the phase 7 towards phase 8 MJO … man oh man I can smell the Miller B we could get outta this pattern. I’m impatient but it almost looks fool proof I’m glad we’re at-least seeing fantasy storms a little more frequently View attachment 97188
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Did you just say an hour 384 storm looks almost fool proof ? Just when I thought I’ve seen it all .
 
Lickwx said:
Did you just say an hour 384 storm looks almost fool proof ? Just when I thought I’ve seen it all .
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No. That pic was just for the fantasy storm comment. I said a period of time where all the teleconnections are in the right place along with a higher amp phase 7-8 is almost fools proof way to get something. But there’s plenty of fools in the SE me included so it’s not saying much
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If all of these teleconnections materialize like they are and we’re roaming in the phase 7 towards phase 8 MJO … man oh man I can smell the Miller B we could get outta this pattern. I’m impatient but it almost looks fool proof I’m glad we’re at-least seeing fantasy storms a little more frequently View attachment 97188
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Itll be interesting to see how close these runs of the gfs are come verification time. It seems like it's latched on to a system in that time period over the last few runs but with wildly varying results. I'd be impressed if it just had the timing of the system right 16 days out much less snow/ice/rain
 
SD said:
Itll be interesting to see how close these runs of the gfs are come verification time. It seems like it's latched on to a system in that time period over the last few runs but with wildly varying results. I'd be impressed if it just had the timing of the system right 16 days out much less snow/ice/rain
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I just hope we can manage any semblance of a pattern change before Christmas, that's asking a lot I know, but a slight cool down around that time would be nice. However, along with taxes and death, one other thing that is a certainty is models are too quick with pattern changes. Probably January before we have a real shot of wintry, unfortunately, but man I'd love to be wrong
 
metwannabe said:
I just hope we can manage any semblance of a pattern change before Christmas, that's asking a lot I know, but a slight cool down around that time would be nice. However, along with taxes and death, one other thing that is a certainty is models are too quick with pattern changes. Probably January before we have a real shot of wintry, unfortunately, but man I'd love to be wrong
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Agreed. Even if we could just beat the SER back enough to get some mid-upper 50s and lows around freezing for the week leading into Christmas that would work for me.
 
SD said:
Agreed. Even if we could just beat the SER back enough to get some mid-upper 50s and lows around freezing for the week leading into Christmas that would work for me.
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This is basically verbatim what the CFS shows. We moderate near normal the week of Christmas. Then we torch a bit after Christmas. Then around 1/5 the hammer drops
 
The areas that missed the rain are the typical bread winners of cad and winter weather in general. Almost like they are saving the dry air for the big Miller b. Wilkes-Surry-Mtns-Yadkin-Winston. Food for thought
 
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