Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

[NWMSGuy]

Much needed Rainfall falling across the Mid-South today. This should help alleviate some of the deficit.

 

[NWMSGuy]

NWS Memphis backing off Wintry talk.

 

[NWMSGuy]

GEFS still appear to be fairly active with a Storm around Christmas.

 

[DadOfJax]

Who has the GEFS and EPS members?

 

[RobertRath]

Good trends over night, at least for the folks who want a torch less Christmas. As I said in earlier posts, I’d take seasonal temps or below and call it a win after the last few warm ones we’ve had.

 

[skywatcher]

Anyone in North GA seeing some frozen precip this morning?

 

[pcbjr]

Anyone in North GA seeing some frozen precip this morning?

I know someone in N FL who isn't ... ... LOL ...

 

[ForsythSnow]

Anyone in North GA seeing some frozen precip this morning?

Too warm aloft. It is showing freezing so if it rains we could get a bit of freezing rain but not enough to be significant as it will be 33 soon.

 

[BHS1975]

Too bad that nice banana high around Christmas is out of the picture now.


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[LetItSnow]

gotta love the swings for Atlanta

18z gfs 73 degrees on 12/26
0z gfs 27 degrees on 12/26
6z gfs 43 degrees on 12/26

 

[Tarheel1]

Too bad that nice banana high around Christmas is out of the picture now.


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Better than banana hammock weather, that was being shown!

 

[Storm5]

06z gefs .... through day 12

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[NWMSGuy]

06z gefs .... through day 12

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Do you believe the GEFS has a better handle on this than the Op?

 

[Torchtember]

06z gefs .... through day 12

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No Bueno

 

[Tarheel1]

JB just said look at Jan '67 , Dec 22-January 1st period! Larry, that's for you! He said anallogs! How'd that timeframe look way back then

 

[Lostnthaweather85]

Anyone in North GA seeing some frozen precip this morning?

Just a 35 degree rain here in Cave Spring outside of Rome

 

[Racker74]

JB's post of comparable analogs.


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[Webberweather53]

When is Joe Bastardi not mentioning an analog from the 50s-60s or the coldest one he can think of even when the pattern is completely different from year to year. Smh he's so biased

 

[Webberweather53]

1064 high over Kansas? Umm yea that's not happening.

 

[deltadog03]

1064 high over Kansas? Umm yea that's not happening.
View attachment 2076

Lol look at the blowtorch red. Lol jk that would be super cold

 

[WeatherWatch]

Anyone in North GA seeing some frozen precip this morning?

There could be some sleet at the onset with any rain that does fall across North GA. No accumulations.

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol look at the blowtorch red. Lol jk that would be super cold

I definitely think there's something wrong w/ the GFS' BL scheme to produce a high like that, I mean, just for a little perspective if this happened and we got a 1064 high over Kansas it would break every single pressure record in the contiguous US, much less break the previous records in Kansas by nearly 10 millibars. Yeah lol not happening unless we start entering an ice age

 

[Stormsfury]

1064 high over Kansas? Umm yea that's not happening.
View attachment 2076

Time to downgrade the GFS to the previous version. What in the world have they done with this new GFS to produce such spurious problems with TCs and now pressures normally reserved for Venus.

 

[WeatherWatch]

There will certainly be a strong arctic high pressure coming down south. Yeah, I doubt it will be that strong like the GFS is depicting. The latest Euro and EPS has a 1040-"ish" mb high coming down. So, what I like to do, is meet in the middle. That high may end up being a 1050 something mb.

 

[Tarheel1]

1064 high over Kansas? Umm yea that's not happening.
View attachment 2076

It has before! 1899!!
JB was there!!

 

[tennessee storm]

Lol look at the blowtorch red. Lol jk that would be super cold

not sure if i even wanted to experience that strong high pressure... everything wold just freeze...lol

 

[tennessee storm]

last nights 0zgfs had 498 dm cold down to tennessee.... lol

 

[NWMSGuy]

1064 high over Kansas? Umm yea that's not happening.
View attachment 2076

Think we can get some good moisture to push through that? LOL jk

 

[tennessee storm]

Think we can get some good moisture to push through that? LOL jk

yeah maybe down to cuba suppression city...

 

[WeatherWatch]

The 6z GEFS MSLP mean has a 1050mb high crossing the Canada/US broader, but the high weakens down to a 1040-"ish" mb has it heads south.

 

[Storm5]

Let’s see if we can keep the cold idea going today


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[pcbjr]

Let’s see if we can keep the cold idea going today


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All the way well past Orlando and far off the N GA coast, just for a couple friends' sake ...

 

[Storm5]

Gfs looks ugly so far


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[Storm5]

Big cold dump headed for the west


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[Storm5]

12z cmc says congrats Denver

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[accu35]

The trend looks as this may be a cold and dry Christmas, but lets see

 

[Storm5]

Ugly ugly run the western Atlantic ridge is strengthening. This bipolar model

 

[accu35]

Actually warm Christmas looks like

 

[Storm5]

Christmas will no doubt be warm this run

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[GeorgiaGirl]

12z: no bowling ball but it doesn't matter as the SE ridge is absolutely fierce. Going to be the warmest run since 18z yesterday.