Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

[accu35]

I’m just here for the 00z GFS cold. Wow that’s a terrible model...this is a flip for the history books. What SE ridge? Interesting Euro run coming...see if she gets colder.


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Lol, yeah 18z were wearing shorts for Christmas and now the oz has dress like Eskimos. Maybe a new trend.

 

[Jackstraw]

Heres one of the coldest night if someone wants a screenshot

I might believe that map if it was for January 27th

 

[Stormlover]

I might believe that map if it was for January 27th

but won't the sun angle be all bad by then? lol, j/k

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Heres one of the coldest night if someone wants a screenshot

It doesn't even look that cold up north. 6 degrees in Michigan and maybe colder than that in Alabama.

 

[Torchtember]

When you are referring to CAD that consist of freezing rain and sleet and no snow right

Depends on how warm upper levels are

 

[Shawn]

No way the entire USA is cold like the 00z GFS run showed. That's not a normal look.

 

[Torchtember]

No way the entire USA is cold like the 00z GFS run showed. That's not a normal look.

Any analogs for a look like this?

 

[tennessee storm]

if the 0z is correct...and i say if... yes... 498 dn thickness cold down to tennessee... unreal

 

[Jackstraw]

but won't the sun angle be all bad by then? lol, j/k

Like you lmao at the "angleites" who don't take into consideration that there has been "0 sun angle" where these cold domes come from. Don't care how warm the oven is, gonna take longer to cook a frozen chicken than a cold one

 

[Shawn]

Any analogs for a look like this?

Hopefully Larry or Eric can put them together if there are. The first thing that came to mind with a High like that and the -30-40F showing up was a time around 73' I was just doing research about. I have no absolute clue about any time the entire USA was in the freezer. @Stormsfury posted some 1983 stuff earlier that may have been.

There are low 40's down into Central Mexico this run....

 

[RollTide18]

No way the entire USA is cold like the 00z GFS run showed. That's not a normal look.

Wasn't the entire lower 48 cold in Jan 2014?

 

[Shawn]

Wasn't the entire lower 48 cold in Jan 2014?

It's just odd, with the La Nina pattern. I hope someone can come up with some analog for it.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Fwiw, although someone will have to check behind me as I'm not strong with 500 maps, but the GEFS doesn't seem like it wants anything to do with the strong cold push.

It's an improvement however. Seems like with how shocking the GFS was everyone forgot about the ensembles.

 

[Tarheel1]

That GFS upgrade is paying big dividends!

 

[GaWx]

Any analogs for a look like this?

Late Dec of 1983 hands down imo.

First read this from Stormsfury about the great Arctic outbreak of Dec 1983:

December, Make analogs relevant again

Next read my response to him about it:

December, Make analogs relevant again

 

[tennessee storm]

It's just odd, with the La Nina pattern. I hope someone can come up with some analog for it.

try january 1985 super cold down to minus 17 in nashville nina also...

 

[tennessee storm]

the polar vortex dropped down to the ohio valley during 85 super cold outbreak

 

[WeatherWatch]

A weak to mod. Nina will make the weather do crazy things. It's not like there's a strong Nina. Also, during a weak to mod. Nina, it don't necessarily mean that a warmer pattern will be locked in place.

 

[Stormlover]

Ok, where is there a place to see the Euro come in or do we have to wait until it's finished?

 

[GaWx]

What a run Phil has apparently missed. He gets down to 25 on 12/28 and that would likely be conservatively too high imo if this pattern were to somehow verify. Also, Ft Myers gets down to 31!

 

[tennessee storm]

Ok, where is there a place to see the Euro come in or do we have to wait until it's finished?

I use psu site e wall

 

[NWTNWX]

No way the entire USA is cold like the 00z GFS run showed. That's not a normal look.

Use to be in the 70s and 80s.

 

[NWTNWX]

Ok, where is there a place to see the Euro come in or do we have to wait until it's finished?

Weather.us

 

[malak05]

Okay dang I'm away for a few days and not watching ever model run and come back to this... very similar look that brought nearly 12 inches of snow to my house a few weeks ago what a crazy winter so far

 

[GaWx]

Ok folks, prepare for possible glory. Hour 144 of 0Z Euro looks better than 156 of 12Z and not too different from hour 144 of 0Z GFS.

 

[WeatherWatch]

Well, there is model agreement so far between the GFS and Euro.

 

[Storm5]

Well, there is model agreement so far between the GFS and Euro.

Wouldn’t call two global op runs model agreement . Could easily go back to the ridge

 

[Stormlover]

Wouldn’t call two global op runs model agreement . Could easily go back to the ridge

come on man

 

[Shawn]

Eh, Euro won't be as cold, but hm, something is about to happen.:|

 

[Storm5]

We’ve had

come on man

the last 5 damn days the models have been all over the place . Two runs does not make agreement

 

[Shawn]

GFS and Euro almost a copy (minus some minor details) by hour 150.

 

[Shawn]

Eh, looking at hour 168, the Euro is a little slower than the GFS, but the Arctic Hounds of Hell should be on the way on future frames. Silly to see these two looking so similar past 120.

 

[stormcentral]

I did it. Started the Christmas thread for our potential storm system. Maybe since its my first thread ill bring the GLORY! 7 days until christmas. Its coming quick!

 

[Brent]

arctic express on the Euro. Looks pretty dry though as far as I can tell

 

[stormcentral]

arctic express on the Euro. Looks pretty dry though as far as I can tell

Send it straight southeast. Dig baby.

 

[Storm5]

Holy ---- these 850 temps

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[Brent]

Dallas almost stays below freezing Christmas Day

Unfortunately its dry

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

I did it. Started the Christmas thread for our potential storm system. Maybe since its my first thread ill bring the GLORY! 7 days until christmas. Its coming quick!

What?? It's way too early to be starting a storm thread on this one.

 

[Shawn]

The Euro and GFS literally (ignore the 500mb vort) are agreeing over the general look through 174, still! Timing differences, but what?!

 

[Stormlover]

We’ve had

the last 5 damn days the models have been all over the place . Two runs does not make agreement

we'll never have agreement for days with both gfs and euro this far out...but it is significant on this run