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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Brady, Texas getting absolutely hammered this run. Wow.

The energy from the north seems to have detached from the southern energy much earlier this run..hmmm
 
Well, the bowling ball may choke off, but some light precip came east. Nothing noteworthy.

edit: well nevermind. Central-North TN gets a White Christmas this run!
 
If anyone still has doubts about the negative effects from the SW cutoff for the SE US (by the way, MDA pro mets agree), compare the beautiful H5 setup of the 0Z GFS at hour 192 with its lack of SW low/no SER/solid cold heading SE with the H5 setup of the 6Z hour 186, 12Z hour 180, and 18Z hour 174 with their SW cutoffs and SE ridges. If only that SW cutoff were a fake! Are we still early enough for that to still be possible? The Euro has had major problems with SW cutoffs in the past.

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Snow in N NC on Christmas!! An SD Christmas present!
 
Now this goes delay cutter, like some of the earlier runs...SoutheastRidge might be happy about this run because of where he's at.
 
And here comes the cold for everybody after that...just late because of how long the bowling ball/cutoff just sits there. Perhaps this storm could affect our westerly folk and then change the pattern back too?

Or maybe not on the cold
 
While the Euro has a major issues with southwest US shortwaves because it tends to oversimplify and this slow them its handling of the potential typhoon behind Kai Tak seems more realistic than the GFS. A weaker ridge in the NE Pacific spurred by a weaker or more suppressed typhoon as the Euro shows would likely discourage the SW US trough from cutting off from its parent longwave trough and backing away as quickly into the NE Pacific thus yielding a warmer solution for the SE US...
 
When will we know whether this typhoon will be doing the Christmas curve or staying the course?


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I think that cut off will get kicked out sooner than what the GFS is depicting. Here's what just came to my mind. Rain, snow, ZR/IP from Texas to the upper south while the cut off just spins for a good bit. Initially the upper south may receive scatt. light amounts of moisture, but nothing like Texas may end up seeing. As the cut off starts to kick out, the moisture content will start increasing as the freezing line progresses south and east. Rain transitions over to ZR/IP elsewhere, then transitioning over to all snow for the area's that may end up being effected by frozen precipitation. The latest GFS has that cut off spinning over the SW for at least 3 days. I don't think it will remain cut off for that long. I'd say it will stay cut off for at least 24-48 hours and then get kicked out. Parts of Texas may very well have a long duration of snow/ZR/IP. It will keep falling and falling until that cut off starts to kick out. My best guess what we will be dealing with is, rain to ZR/IP to all snow event.
 
I think the best shot for people outside of where the models are already showing frozen precip are the areas affected by CAD. We still got time for things to change although I don't think the SER is going anywhere. It's 3rd and 17 with 2 timeouts 1:30 left in the fourth quarter ball on your own 20 yard line
 
Yeah I don't think we mind the SW cutoff in this case, it's the best chance for a storm to actually occur. It just can't sit there like it has and either fizzle or become a cutter later.
 
Storm5 said:
I like it , the euro cut it off then kicked it out . It's better for storm chances vs a cold dry NW flow
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Location, location. Much of the SE was also very wet on the 0Z and there was even some SN. Besides, I'd rather be cold and dry than warm and wet. I've had enough warmth. To each their own!

I really think we could miss out on a very cold last week of Dec due to the SW cutoff/SER combo per the extreme -EPO analogs I mentioned. With very cold, it opens the door to more of the SE for potential snow as opposed to potential ZR in western SE/TX and any SE cold being much more limited in area as well as less intense for many. I'm sure many western SE/TX folks want the big ice, but we're not all there. We can never all be pleased.
 
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I think the Euro would be the best solution. Gfs will hopefully come around. Still early, many model runs to go and still over a week away. Im not worried.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Yeah I don't think we mind the SW cutoff in this case, it's the best chance for a storm to actually occur. It just can't sit there like it has and either fizzle or become a cutter later.
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The cut off is going to be the storm once it's kicked out. Between the cut off and the SER, both will be working together to pump a moist SW flow, moistening the upper levels along the front. The moisture that's along the front isn't a storm system, it's just from a moist SW flow. If that cut off sits there longer, it could amp up the SER, and if that occurred, most places in the SE US won't see any frozen precip. The cut off needs to kick out.
 
WeatherWatch said:
The cut off is going to be the storm once it's kicked out. Between the cut off and the SER, both will be working together to pump a moist SW flow, moistening the upper levels along the front. The moisture that's along the front isn't a storm system, it's just from a moist SW flow. If that cut off sits there longer, it could amp up the SER, and if that occurred, most places in the SE US won't see any frozen precip. The cut off needs to kick out.
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It needs to on Christmas Eve or a little earlier. If so the cut off isn't a problem.
 
WeatherWatch said:
The cut off is going to be the storm once it's kicked out. Between the cut off and the SER, both will be working together to pump a moist SW flow, moistening the upper levels along the front. The moisture that's along the front isn't a storm system, it's just from a moist SW flow. If that cut off sits there longer, it could amp up the SER, and if that occurred, most places in the SE US won't see any frozen precip. The cut off needs to kick out.
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Is your vid up yet
 
SD said:
Regardless of what we see the pattern leading into Christmas into the next week is ripe for a major ice event

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I seen the 18z gfs with another wintry event on the 26/27 time frame. Could be two different storms or emerge into one .
 
SD said:
Regardless of what we see the pattern leading into Christmas into the next week is ripe for a major ice event

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Tornado, Hurricane, Major Ice Event ... least it's 1 out of 3 for safety down here ... o_O
 
NWTNWX said:
Hate being in the bullseye this far out but man the Euro was a thing of beauty for these parts. Gonna be a fun week to watch this unfold.
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Yeah i feel good out here but I hate being in the euro bullseye this early i mean hopefully it holds up but I'm still concerned this could be a massive ice storm instead
 
More good news from your local Curmudgeon ...

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Damn ...
 
You know how we see NW trends with other system's, like the winter storm that recently occurred? We could be dealing with the same with this possible upcoming winter storm, but opposite. I think at some point, there will be a south and east trend. Margin of error.
 
GaWx said:
If anyone still has doubts about the negative effects from the SW cutoff for the SE US (by the way, MDA pro mets agree), compare the beautiful H5 setup of the 0Z GFS at hour 192 with its lack of SW low/no SER/solid cold heading SE with the H5 setup of the 6Z hour 186, 12Z hour 180, and 18Z hour 174 with their SW cutoffs and SE ridges. If only that SW cutoff were a fake! Are we still early enough for that to still be possible? The Euro has had major problems with SW cutoffs in the past.

Edited for typos
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WeatherWatch said:
The cut off is going to be the storm once it's kicked out. Between the cut off and the SER, both will be working together to pump a moist SW flow, moistening the upper levels along the front. The moisture that's along the front isn't a storm system, it's just from a moist SW flow. If that cut off sits there longer, it could amp up the SER, and if that occurred, most places in the SE US won't see any frozen precip. The cut off needs to kick out.
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even if the cutoff kicks out it would be a big storm and most likely a warm system. It's a fine line we are walking
 
Im still amazed how early the last week snowstorm was. To me thats worth it all, especially how far south it snowed and actually stayed for 4/5 days. I have pictures and vids, for memories so my kids will grow up knowing they had a privileged seeing snow. Watching my kids reaction when it did snow was worth a million winters
 
I actually think the precip shield has trended south some on recent runs but it doesn't really matter if the cutoff doesn't kick or it kicks late. If it doesn't kick it's just going to keep getting stronger and pumping warm air/fueling the SE ridge...when/if it does it'll be a warm system on one side but maybe it does soon enough that it gets a bit farther east in the southeast.
 
accu35 said:
Im still amazed how early the last week snowstorm was. To me thats worth it all, especially how far south it snowed and actually stayed for 4/5 days. I have pictures and vids, for memories so my kids will grow up knowing they had a privileged seeing snow. Watching my kids reaction when it did snow was worth a million winters
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Bingo, my five year old girl got to see a real deal snow for the first time. She loved it. What made the storm one of my favorites was the perfect snowball and snowman making snow. Makes for great entertainment for the kiddos. I’ve got pictures of me and her in the snow and they are priceless.
 
As I alluded to earlier, the GFS has massive sub-vortex scale convective feedback problems that often lead to overzealous and bogus tropical cyclogenesis and intensity forecasts, especially with storms that originate out of the monsoon trough. You won't find a much better example of this than what we're seeing right now with invest 97W in the Western Pacific. These errors will likely manifest upstream and upscale w/ time as the run progresses once the model finally realizes the tropical cyclone won't develop as fast as originally forecast, and won't gain latitude as quickly (Beta advection out of the monsoon trough and deepening of its Rossby Penetration depth is delayed), thus won't be as strong or apt to recurve, henceforth its longwave pattern over North America may look more and more like the Euro/EPS with time
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