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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Gfs coming around to the idea of getting some light wintry precip here Tuesday night into early Wednesday

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SD said:
EPS continues to bring the cold
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Where do you find the link to generate this graph on ryans site? I am either blind or just keep overlooking it.
 
Merry Christmas Eve! I said it the other day when the models were pumping that SER for today and tomorrow “ if we can get seasonal to slightly below temps I’d consider it a win”. My temp forecast for today and tomorrow is in the upper 40s. That’s a huge win imo considering it was near 80 last Christmas and coming a near biblical flood the year before.
 
one of the better MRX discussions I've read in a while:

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The first four periods of this part of the forecast, Tuesday
through Wednesday night, look dry overall, but on the chilly side
with temperatures about 6-10 degrees below normal. Then starting
Thursday we continue to look at an unsettled pattern with models
waffling on the placement and timing of moisture and lift. Still
the same as the last couple of mornings when looking at this
overall pattern of the main moisture connection to our south and a
number of clippers in the pipeline that zip through the area very
quickly. For Thursday night, there is a small clipper that will
be humming along at about 45 kt to the ESE. GFS puts out about 1
to 2.5" if snow across much of the valley with this clipper, but
it seems to be going too fast to drop this much precip. Also, Euro
is not even showing anything with this clipper over our area.
Will just go with 35-50% POPs for Thursday night and we`ll see how
future models handle it.

GFS is also cranking out more snow on Sunday, but MREFs are a lot
more conservative with QPF probabilities only 10-20% of 0.1" liquid
equivalent (LE) for Sunday and 20-30% probs for 0.1 LE for Sunday
night. So this still seems like a lot of clippers without a lot of
organization. I will say that there is a trend in the MREFs that
the Sunday night into Monday timeframe that we could tap into the
moisture plume south of us--long way off, but worth watching.

&&
 
GaWx said:
All of the models were ridiculously overdone with their severe -EPO predictions.
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We will have to see what it verifies at. Those crazy epo runs from last week showed that it would peak today the 25th . And currently we have a stout -epo
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from Nashville NWS for areas down to the Alabama state line, about 15 miles from me:
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming west northwest after midnight.

Sunday
A 40 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 38.
 
Storm5 said:
We will have to see what it verifies at. Those crazy epo runs from last week showed that it would peak today the 25th . And currently we have a stout -epo
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Stout, yes, and strong and long enough to have significant impact, but I can almost guarantee you that the extreme -EPO runs will not verify as of 12/25 or just after. Where is the 5760-5800 m H5 Alaskan/W Canadian ridge that was being modeled for around 12/25?
 
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These way off model runs are the reason why, although it will warm for a time, I don't trust them to say winter is over after the 10th either. As usual we will have to get the timing right with the cold and the pecip but don't give up all hope the rest of the winter, chances are at least some of us will score again
 
So far this month, at least here in Chattanooga, has been a lamer version of 2010... oh well.. still some possibilities on the horizon.
 
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