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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

ForsythSnow said:
That actually does a good job of not eroding the CAD, so I think I trust it more than the GFS.
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Yeah, I haven't looked deep into the physics of the Canadian Model but I've noticed it holds onto CAD domes a lot longer than either the NAM and the GFS. I'm presuming its parameter space was intended to mainly cover winter storms given it was created in Canada, so as long as the model can actually figure out the synoptic pattern (huge caveat), it's built to handle this kind of storm...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, I haven't looked into the physics of the Canadian Model but I've noticed it holds onto CAD domes a lot longer than either the NAM and the GFS. I'm presuming its parameter space was intended to mainly cover winter storms given it was created in Canada, so as long as the model can actually figure out the synoptic pattern (huge caveat), it's built to handle this kind of storm...
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Even with this look the GFS is spitting out wouldn't CAD areas still be dealing with a huge ice storm verbatim
 
Lol wow what changes look at that cold press
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This is where things start to blur. You have an original wave, that can produce an icy scenario for GA & The Carolinas. This second situation, is a whole other beast per 00z GFS.
 
The ice likely extends down farther than the map if the HP verifies as it looks and if it does...I bet this system is further south than this...
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Even with this look the GFS is spitting out wouldn't CAD areas still be dealing with a huge ice storm verbatim
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Most definitely. Again, the GFS has a non-local mixing scheme that's based on a paper written by Brown & Grant (1997) which is derived in part from large eddy simulations, and it's the inclusion of this scheme in the GFS that makes it a piece of crap in handling CAD. The entire premise of non-local mixing is built on the idea that advection of air parcels across large-distances by turbulent mixing from larger eddies is more effective than local mixing from smaller eddies. The entire Transilient turbulence theory gets very complicated in a hurry lol esp when you analyze ensemble-averaged eddy motions...
 
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