NBAcentel
Member
Really gonna be a rate dependent look right there, gonna need heavy precipitation to cool the surface, light stuff won’t cut it more then likely
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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NCSNOW
Member
I can testify. Winter wonderland up here today
trackersacker
Member
I would say it was a bust for parts of southern Virginia in some regards. But areas closer to central Virginia did just fine
NCSNOW
Member
Tsappfrog20
Member
SnowNiner
Member
You know you're getting Monday, don't be throwin marginal NC storms at us. Give us the cold ones. lol.
I'm very happy that we keep defaulting back to cool/cold in the medium range, very nice to have a cool below average December which it looks like is in store for us. I just feel for an actual storm, we're waiting for the pacific and the jet to reshuffle a bit to give us a cleaner taller +PNA ridge that will give the SE a better/more southernly cold trajectory and let our northern stream shortwaves tilt a bit. Right now I feel we're not quite cold enough, and not quite troughy enough to get a storm. Good to be in the game, but I'd love to be VA and Mid-Atlantic the next few weeks.
GoDuke
Member
Looks like 85 in VA on up to Richmond.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
I don't disagree at all, but there will be a lot of cold bottled up over the next few weeks, just need one well timed wave for y'all.
Bingo!
Heading south though.
The snow is starting to die out around 30 miles from NC. From my observations:
DC 1”
Fredericksburg 3”
Richmond 2”
Petersburg 2”
NCSNOW
Member
View going up I 85 today
It is
olhausen
Member
A few more pictures from last night. Icy sidewalk! Temps have literally been stuck between 30-38 this whole week. Highs are Pretty impressive for the first week of December. I do worry with how much cold we are getting that it then flips in January during our best snow month.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Google weathernext2 is pretty euro-y, maybe a little beefier
Bigedd09
Member
Tsappfrog20
Member
Google's AI weather model.
SimeonNC
Member
I'm honestly more excited for Monday as I said, I like tracking smaller events and this one seems it has the potential for the entire state to ee something and not just the I-40 region.
CPC with the buzzkill of the century.. I mean what in the world dude.
JHS
Member
1989-90 comes to mind here and I'm hoping for the flip. December was an icebox and then winter was gone.A few more pictures from last night. Icy sidewalk! Temps have literally been stuck between 30-38 this whole week. Highs are Pretty impressive for the first week of December. I do worry with how much cold we are getting that it then flips in January during our best snow month.
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Not surprising considering this is close to the Euro Weeklies, which hopefully are too warm. We’ll see!
CPC has had some wins. I’m not one to diss on them like everyone else. I personally enjoy their outlooks. They nailed this one issued on the 27th of December for what came this past January… but man. I just don’t see what they are seeing. Who knows. Just seems like Corncob Cornelius got lazy & just said let’s just go straight La Niña & clocked out for the day.
We have cold air, disturbances and a positive MJO phase to work with but as you said, we need a taller +PNA ridge to work with. The upper air pattern that drives our weather needs to have that dip in the roller coaster to bring that colder air further down south and the ascent after the dip just off of the Southeast coast to give us a good old fashioned coastal low to work with. If that +PNA ridge would cooperate then many of us would be in for some fun times ahead.
I honestly believe it's programmed into them, because it shows the same thing 95%of the time for weeks 3 and 4. They can't help themselves. They got hot heads. lol
It’s an easy out to just go with warm 90 percent of the time.
yesterday 6z wxnxt vs today 12z. obv the pretty ptype map looks more fun, but the real thing to watch is that H5 trough dug in a little better and the broad coastal sfc low has backed up closer to the SE coast. its a better look on this versus the AIFS. please note these are coarse, 6-hr estimated ptype average maps and really should only be used for QPF ideas and syntopic feature placement
What's the link to this man? I tried to search it yesterday when Evan posted it but I believe i was on the wrong site.
No, Mitch, it wasn’t laziness as I assume they saw the straight extended Euro model guidance that is very similar.
I remember quite clearly the very cold weeks 3-4 outlook that you posted for Jan of 2025 because it was one of the coldest, if not the coldest, in the SE on record since they started issuing them. I was as excited as ever and was posting about how they were the coldest ever. At the time, the Euro Weeklies, had been locked on cold for weeks 3-4. So, it made sense to go cold then. But in total contrast, they’re mild due to a SE ridge. So, it makes about as much sense to go mild now as it did then to go cold.
That makes sense man. Thanks for the explanation sir.
Promise im not gatekeeping bc I want weather forum likes for myself, but the link is not mine to share. Sorry man
It's cool.
NBAcentel
Member
Some AIFS ensembles panels
Mean as a whole for the ptype
More importantly the confidence level
Individuals
Mean as a whole for the ptype
More importantly the confidence level
Individuals
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
My current curiosity right now is, how well are models handling the strength of the southern stream energy from the baja low. Models have never been great figuring out baja lows. Right now we're looking at poor LL support so a SFC low kind of struggles to form. The main vort right now isn't digging far south enough either, but the vort is closer than it seems. If we can just get some better digging. there and some ensemble members have really shown interest with that, especially Euro AIFS. Running out of times for trends, but something to generally keep an eye on.
just curious, what is the link really in the first place? is it secret because the product is licensed or something? no hate at all just curious lol.
trackersacker
Member
These are really cool graphics. Thanks for sharing.
EFisherWX
Member
Apologies, I’m currently hosting the maps on my employer’s server, so only our internal team has access atm. I’ll iron out if we’re allowed to make that data public as a private wx company (depends on Google’s terms), or I may just end up hosting on GitHub for y’all to access. I’ll circle back next week.
Also hi, first forum post
Tsappfrog20
Member
Apologies, I’m currently hosting the maps on my employer’s server, so only our internal team has access atm. I’ll iron out if we’re allowed to make that data public as a private wx company (depends on Google’s terms), or I may just end up hosting on GitHub for y’all to access. I’ll circle back next week.
Also hi, first forum post
Eric you do an awesome job we appreciate you bro
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NBAcentel
Member
The rich get richer:
Apologies, I’m currently hosting the maps on my employer’s server, so only our internal team has access atm. I’ll iron out if we’re allowed to make that data public as a private wx company (depends on Google’s terms), or I may just end up hosting on GitHub for y’all to access. I’ll circle back next week.
Also hi, first forum post
The issue is not having a valid api key from Google to make the maps with Python, grads, etc.
I'm assuming you guys have access to the bigquery, or an API of some sort. Not sure Googles going to go for publicizing it, and I personally feel like they are very much into using that zarr format they also have to push people into using their cloud services, since it seems when you request and are granted access, it's through that