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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

Spending two full weeks back home in Raleigh with some days in Wilmington leading up to and after Christmas.

Foot and a half of snow for this entire board over those weeks with the biggest part starting midday Christmas Eve, and ripping all day through Christmas night with no slowing down.

Sharpie.
 
Can’t wait for the MJO dives into the center of death and all these cold maps turn normal to above overnight . I think my average high is 30 by the end of this month! 🤘
 
Mitch West said:
Bro are you good? I mean we are trying to make this happen.
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I’ve chased too many stratwarming/polar vortex split in my days, to know way more things can go wrong than can go right!!! The split sends the cold to the other side of the planet, after waiting and watching a few head fakes send it to the USA, only to have it correct to that or dump out west somehow, when everything thing was on track for 2 weeks!
Just trying to temper enthusiasm , until my eyeball water is freezing
 
We might be in a La Nina right now but the tropical troposphere already looks very El Niño like.

One of the reasons why I’ve had some mixed feelings about western troughing at the end of Nov into the early Dec is all this westerly momentum build-up in the tropics.

It’s a lot easier for the Pacific Jet to extend and shift equatorward with this momentum distribution, likely one reason why we’ve seen a +PNA trend the last day or two.

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Webberweather53 said:
We might be in a La Nina right now but the tropical troposphere already looks very El Niño like.

One of the reasons why I’ve had some mixed feelings about western troughing at the end of Nov into the early Dec is all this westerly momentum build-up in the tropics.

It’s a lot easier for the Pacific Jet to extend and shift equatorward with this momentum distribution, likely one reason why we’ve seen a +PNA trend the last day or two.

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If the Niño is knocking, can we get some active southern jet while we’re at it? I’m weary of these northern jet initiated systems that have been so common thus far in the 2020s
 
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I’ve got three of these bad boys on the tree this year (I know it don’t mean squat) but here’s to kicking the ball through the goalpost this winter.


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No analogs, no indices, just pure gut, but I actually feel really good about winter weather in December this year. Everything has been as close to normal this Fall, compared to recent yrs, and just seems like our time.
 
RBR71 said:
No analogs, no indices, just pure gut, but I actually feel really good about winter weather in December this year. Everything has been as close to normal this Fall, compared to recent yrs, and just seems like our time.
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I agree. More of a simplistic view where I feel like things will turn cold the first half of December. I see the pattern like a teetertotter. If your warm right now, it'll teeter cold (eventually). I guess the problem we could have is if there is one skinny kid and one fat kid.
 
Today’s 2 week GEFS MJO progressed significantly more quickly vs yesterday’s run into phase 7!

Today’s 2 week GEFS (11/19) is 2 days faster making it into phase 7 vs yesterday’s run and is already halfway through phase 7 as of 12/3!
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Yesterday’s 2 week GEFS (11/18) didn’t get to phase 7 til 12/1 vs today’s 11/29:
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Yesterday’s extended GEFS (11/18) didn’t have it halfway through phase 7 til 12/7 meaning today’s 2 week GEFS gets to halfway through phase 7 four days faster (12/3) than yesterday’s extended GEFS (not til 12/7)!
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I'm trying to simplify it down to whether or not we get to phase 8 or not. We do, good times, if not, SE ridge likely. Right now generally the EPS doesn't look good to me to start the month. The -NAO is gone (-AO too maybe?), the -EPO is too far west kicking in a solid SE/WAR ridge. Looks like we're still waiting on the jet to extend east, and waiting on phase 8 the beginning of December. But I think when the mjo kicks east to where it's supposed to be further in the month better times will be waiting. Just need to keep moving the mjo because I do not think phase 7 is it. Can't die in 7. Again oversimplistic I know, but it's what I'm looking for.

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GFS has a snowstorm here at the end of the run of course 🤣

Some people here say no Arctic air for a month and somebody else was talking about the one Thanksgiving it snowed here

Go figure
 
SnowNiner said:
I'm trying to simplify it down to whether or not we get to phase 8 or not. We do, good times, if not, SE ridge likely. Right now generally the EPS doesn't look good to me to start the month. The -NAO is gone (-AO too maybe?), the -EPO is too far west kicking in a solid SE/WAR ridge. Looks like we're still waiting on the jet to extend east, and waiting on phase 8 the beginning of December. But I think when the mjo kicks east to where it's supposed to be further in the month better times will be waiting. Just need to keep moving the mjo because I do not think phase 7 is it. Can't die in 7. Again oversimplistic I know, but it's what I'm looking for.

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IF the 11/18 bc version of the extended EPS that you just posted were to be right, you couldn’t ask for a better position of the MJO in Dec/Jan: just outside the circle in phase 8 (and very slow moving making it last longer would be a big bonus) is about the coldest on average in the E US as it’s colder than strong phase 8 (though there’s always lots of variation of course): if you asked me to place it in a better place I couldn’t:
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SnowNiner said:
I'm trying to simplify it down to whether or not we get to phase 8 or not. We do, good times, if not, SE ridge likely. Right now generally the EPS doesn't look good to me to start the month. The -NAO is gone (-AO too maybe?), the -EPO is too far west kicking in a solid SE/WAR ridge. Looks like we're still waiting on the jet to extend east, and waiting on phase 8 the beginning of December. But I think when the mjo kicks east to where it's supposed to be further in the month better times will be waiting. Just need to keep moving the mjo because I do not think phase 7 is it. Can't die in 7. Again oversimplistic I know, but it's what I'm looking for.

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Something I’ve been noticing in the EPS the last couple weeks is that it’s really not been doing a good job of handling the NAO and AO. 10 days ago it had both going positive by now yet both are still squarely negative.
 
SnowNiner said:
I'm trying to simplify it down to whether or not we get to phase 8 or not. We do, good times, if not, SE ridge likely. Right now generally the EPS doesn't look good to me to start the month. The -NAO is gone (-AO too maybe?), the -EPO is too far west kicking in a solid SE/WAR ridge. Looks like we're still waiting on the jet to extend east, and waiting on phase 8 the beginning of December. But I think when the mjo kicks east to where it's supposed to be further in the month better times will be waiting. Just need to keep moving the mjo because I do not think phase 7 is it. Can't die in 7. Again oversimplistic I know, but it's what I'm looking for.

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NAO/AO aside, I'd argue that the AI has been doing better with the pattern at range than the EPS.

Now this looks a little more like Phase 7, doesn't it?

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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
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I’ve got three of these bad boys on the tree this year (I know it don’t mean squat) but here’s to kicking the ball through the goalpost this winter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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You start your Christmas decorating early don't you? I usually put our tree up around the first week of December. I've got to get Thanksgiving out of the way first. We have a couple of snowmen we put on our tree every year. I hope your snow ornaments will send some positive vibes our way and we get the blizzard that many of us have been dreaming about this December.
 
I normally don't plug my stuff in here much these days, but I made a post on my thoughts which is basically what have all been saying. If you look at the AI model, it honestly fits the background very well when you combine the SSWE & the phase we are in & heading towards.

We get the cold front next week.. it cools off.. then the ridge flexes again as what could be an arctic outbreak drops into the Central US (Regardless, it looks to be a stout shot of cold air). Does the cold air bleed East? Who knows. But it fits the background of phase 7 which is what we will be in during that timeframe.

I think as we move over the coming days & week or so, we will see model guidance adjust to shots of colder air coming further East to back MJO progression. Hopefully by next weekend, we start to see true signs of significant change for us. But even at the end of the current AI run & really all guidance, you can see cold lock & loaded ready to drop.

 
Goodness gracious that’s a big phase 7 MJO event, might be about to eat my words about the GEFS forecast from yesterday over amping this …

Given the warmest water on the entire globe is sitting around the 160E in the Equatorial Pacific and we’re about to have a long and strong westerly wind burst over it, this probably spells the end of La Niña in 3 months or so.

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