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Pattern December Discussion

Around the 30th, the Euro is very cold in the east! Now all we need is some precip
 
:(

gfs_ens_T2ma_Mean_us_3.png
 
Euro with a Miller A at day 10 with cold air there! CMC agrees. I'm in
 
The day 10look on the Euro is quite tasty to me! 850s are below freezing into N AL, N MS, N GA, barely into W Carolinas, 1011 lp off LA!!! Of course there's a lakes low, but fun to look at!
 
Storm5 link said:
awesome 12z euro run

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The stuff left in the SW could have been interesting if it got out slightly ahead towards the end of the run.  Of course it just sits and spins.
 
Tarheel1 link said:
The day 10look on the Euro is quite tasty to me! 850s are below freezing into N AL, N MS, N GA, barely into W Carolinas, 1011 lp off LA!!! Of course there's a lakes low, but fun to look at!
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that low wouldn't matter with the massive high diving through the plains

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Fingers crossed long-range Euro is onto something.  We don't have much case-study data with potential threats with GFS vs Euro this Winter, but what we do have the GFS has been more accurate so far for us down here from what I've read.  Eric, is this statement correct?
 
Re: December Discussion

I don't get the exciment from a day ten op run with the currenr pattern we have The exciting part is what's going with the pattern not any kind of system. just a few days ago things looked like complete s*** and now they have completely flipped . That's the exciting part at this point . The question is , is the flip correct . If we were in a stable colder pattern I'd be a little more interested in a day ten setup. But at this point I'm just hoping this change across the northern hemisphere  is legit and does not back off

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Re: December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
I don't get the exciment from a day ten op run with the currenr pattern we have The exciting part is what's going with the pattern not any kind of system. just a few days ago things looked like complete s*** and now they have completely flipped . That's the exciting part at this point . The question is , is the flip correct . If we were in a stable colder pattern I'd be a little more interested in a day ten setup. But at this point I'm just hoping this change across the northern hemisphere  is legit and does not back off

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+1
 
Storm5 link said:
I don't get the exciment from a day ten op run with the currenr pattern we have The exciting part is what's going with the pattern not any kind of system. just a few days ago things looked like complete s*** and now they have completely flipped . That's the exciting part at this point . The question is , is the flip correct . If we were in a stable colder pattern I'd be a little more interested in a day ten setup. But at this point I'm just hoping this change across the northern hemisphere  is legit and does not back off

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I know how you love the weeklies and they'll have an answer for you real soon...LOL!


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SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=2.msg3054#msg3054 date=1482426299]
70 on Christmas Day... yeah that might qualify as Torchmas.


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It's kind of become a Christmas Day tradition !
[/quote]

No it hasn't. Besides this year, last year was the first Christmas in several years that was well above average. Every Christmas from 2009-2014 was either around seasonable to below average in Atlanta.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KATL/2014/12/25/DailyHistory.html?req_city=KATL&req_state=GA&req_statename=Georgia&reqdb.zip=30320&reqdb.magic=5&reqdb.wmo=99999
 
Re: December Discussion

12z euro
439fdc658dec5e6ccf9fd944a2537b0f.jpg


12z euro ensembles
71623f1b9a0540ef0b848c2587c0524b.jpg


so yeah this is why there is no need to get excited about a day 10 op run in a cappy pattern . the eps is a huge improvement vs previous days, however it disagrees with the op

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Every once in awhile, the op can score a win!
 
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