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Pattern December Discussion

The AO is forecasted to top off at about 5.0 before going towards neutral but still positive at New Years. PNA is forecasted to go negative after a brief period of being positive. Until we can get these more favorable it'll be hard to get much of anything big to track. Right now unless you can get another CAD setup, favorable area would be back out west and upper portions of the south and TN area.  The MJO looks to be going into the favorable (phase 8 and 1) I believe Larry has been talking about.
a599841de837b8ae821e9b67638dbe7f.gif

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GFS
47cf39c9b4889cb1a03ddfea4dd61aea.gif

ECMWF
11453ef708b6ee0be37a9b1c8d878ca0.gif


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Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg2652#msg2652 date=1482081207]
This one will be fun to watch. It's really not that far from bringing the goods
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It's about as far from bringing anything good, as can be! With the AO rising till atleast early January, we would have better luck hitting the lottery , than getting snow or ice in the South
[/quote]
agreed. however , can still score with a bad AO . comes down to timing

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Well the advertised torch never gets much inside day 10 either, I don't think the pattern is as bad as some say. It's not good, but I bet we don't torch late December into January like many say. In fact I think we get some winter weather as we head toward the middle of January through the end of the month. I think near normal through the rest of the month is more realistic than torch. Way to early to call winter off based on long range forecast that is sure to change. At some point some of the south will catch everything just right. Good grief maybe not southern ga or florida but for a great number of people in the mid-south. :snowflake:
 
Re: December Discussion

12z euro has a nice blizzard for north and south Dakota

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Re: December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
12z euro has a nice blizzard for north and south Dakota

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It's a step down process! We will get our step in April! :(
 
StoneMtnWx link said:
The AO is forecasted to top off at about 5.0 before going towards neutral but still positive at New Years. PNA is forecasted to go negative after a brief period of being positive. Until we can get these more favorable it'll be hard to get much of anything big to track. Right now unless you can get another CAD setup, favorable area would be back out west and upper portions of the south and TN area.  The MJO looks to be going into the favorable (phase 8 and 1) I believe Larry has been talking about.
GFS
47cf39c9b4889cb1a03ddfea4dd61aea.gif

ECMWF
11453ef708b6ee0be37a9b1c8d878ca0.gif
Click to expand...

Yes, indeed. It is too bad that the MJO is not the end all be all factor because I couldn't draw a more favorable forecasted MJO for cold than what today's GEFS/EPS consensus is showing (EPS does best with MJO overall). So, IF this were to verify per the EPS, the MJO would be very close to amplitude 1.00 (circle) going from phase 7 into 8 and aiming for low amplitude of phase 1. I can't overstate how near perfect this would be as regards the highest chances for colder than normal from a strictly MJO standpoint. Again, if only this were the only factor!
 
Re: December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
12z euro has a nice blizzard for north and south Dakota

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Click to expand...
I know I have said this before - it is literally comical when I toggle between current and previous runs of both the GFS and Euro.  Again, the screaming message is that these models have no clue during active periods until it has been sampled and at least in the CONUS.
 
Re: December Discussion

Supershow link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2662#msg2662 date=1482086620]
12z euro has a nice blizzard for north and south Dakota

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Click to expand...
I know I have said this before - it is literally comical when I toggle between current and previous runs of both the GFS and Euro.  Again, the screaming message is that these models have no clue during active periods until it has been sampled and at least in the CONUS.
[/quote]
If they show above normal temps, they usually nail those! They have been really horrible with precip also! I was supposed to get 1-3" of rain by today and have picked up .10, at best and maybe that much more before rain moves out
 
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

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Storm5 link said:
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

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Click to expand...

Getting close?!  Haha!
 
Rain Cold link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

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Click to expand...

Getting close?!  Haha!
[/quote]
lol true, it's been crap but some areas have seen a little Zr/IP which is a win

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=2.msg2669#msg2669 date=1482095881]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

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Click to expand...

Getting close?!  Haha!
[/quote]
lol true, it's been crap but some areas have seen a little Zr/IP which is a win

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[/quote]

Yeah, we got a little glaze...just enough to ruin the shutout for the winter.
 
Storm5 link said:
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

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Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
 
Still have time to get this crappy pattern out of here in time for the peak part of the season. Not too worried yet.
 
Re: December Discussion

SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

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Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
[/quote]
no, it's not. Obviously we cycle through different patterns during the winter here in the SE but the one upcoming is about as bad as you can get . The question is where do we go after this? With zero blocking to be found in the LR and a strengthening PV , it's a bleak outlook. I guess the good news is, once the pattern changes in January it can't be any worse . But when it does change there is ZERO guarantee it will get any better .  People keep saying just wait till late January and February . Thats a seasonal saying that we hear every year and i dont think its going to apply to this winter coming out of a weak Nina.  We are starting to see that in the seasonal models as they trend warmer and warmer for January and February. I've been on the front loaded winter and warmer back end from the start . Gonna be sad if the front loaded plays out and December ends up being the "coldest " month to average this winter and we go AN in J/F. Obiously we will still have a chance or two along the way but I'll be 100 percent shocked if we get any type of sustained ( meaning a few weeks) wintry pattern in January or February . Color me worried at this point

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I'm having flashbacks to January and February 2012. Actually, I enjoyed that winter. It was warm and we didn't really ever have any chances for wintry precip so we never got our hopes up. What really sucks is when you have a winter with a great pattern and can't score.
 
Re: December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2673#msg2673 date=1482097038]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
[/quote]
no, it's not. Obviously we cycle through different patterns during the winter here in the SE but the one upcoming is about as bad as you can get . The question is where do we go after this? With zero blocking to be found in the LR and a strengthening PV , it's a bleak outlook. I guess the good news is, once the pattern changes in January it can't be any worse . But when it does change there is ZERO guarantee it will get any better .  People keep saying just wait till late January and February . Thats a seasonal saying that we hear every year and i dont think its going to apply to this winter coming out of a weak Nina.  We are starting to see that in the seasonal models as they trend warmer and warmer for January and February. I've been on the front loaded winter and warmer back end from the start . Gonna be sad if the front loaded plays out and December ends up being the "coldest " month to average this winter. Obiously we will still have a chance or two along the way but I'll be 100 percent shocked if we get any type of sustained ( meaning a few weeks) wintry pattern in January or February .

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[/quote]
I see you got your avatar....lol. Well, I am riding the MJO until it proves me wrong. I know it can make or break a winter outlook, and with it forecasted to be in a favorable quadrant, I will take my chances. I stick by my original way of thinking.... Lots of wedges in the Carolinas this up-coming winter.
 
Cad Wedge NC link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2677#msg2677 date=1482097768]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2673#msg2673 date=1482097038]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
[/quote]
no, it's not. Obviously we cycle through different patterns during the winter here in the SE but the one upcoming is about as bad as you can get . The question is where do we go after this? With zero blocking to be found in the LR and a strengthening PV , it's a bleak outlook. I guess the good news is, once the pattern changes in January it can't be any worse . But when it does change there is ZERO guarantee it will get any better .  People keep saying just wait till late January and February . Thats a seasonal saying that we hear every year and i dont think its going to apply to this winter coming out of a weak Nina.  We are starting to see that in the seasonal models as they trend warmer and warmer for January and February. I've been on the front loaded winter and warmer back end from the start . Gonna be sad if the front loaded plays out and December ends up being the "coldest " month to average this winter. Obiously we will still have a chance or two along the way but I'll be 100 percent shocked if we get any type of sustained ( meaning a few weeks) wintry pattern in January or February .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I see you got your avatar....lol. Well, I am riding the MJO until it proves me wrong. I know it can make or break a winter outlook, and with it forecasted to be in a favorable quadrant, I will take my chances. I stick by my original way of thinking.... Lots of wedges in the Carolinas this up-coming winter.
[/quote]
haha yes might be my avatar for life .

You are in a much more favored area being a weak nina year. I agree with you , ride the wedges all season.

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