Pattern December Discussion

NorthGaWinter · Dec 17, 2016

Snow in NGA 324!

JHS · Dec 17, 2016

Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=JHS link=topic=2.msg2470#msg2470 date=1481987297]
We are going to have to wait until Feb for any winter weather. This winter seems to be playing out like the winter of 1988-89 which means no chance for snow or ice until around Feb 15 and then only for NC and SC. Little if any winter weather in AL, GA, or Miss this winter.

Lol! I thought we were gonna have to wait till January for rain???
[/quote]

We got at least some rain in Dec 1988 and Jan 1989, but any winter weather held off until Feb when much of NC and the CAD area in SC got a major icestorm. Then a week later a 1-3 inch snowfall in western parts of SC and NC, but MUCH more along I-95 in NC and up into southeast VA. Feb of 1989 was wild, with 80 early in the month, followed by an extremely cold cold airmass that led to a temp gradient of 40-50 degrees between Memphis TN and upstate SC. Close to 80 again around the 15th, followed 2 days later by a major icestorm with between .25 and .50 of ice in upstate SC with temps at or below 32 at GSP for close to 36 hours. If we get a winter and spring like that year, this board will be very busy from Feb into May, first with cold and wintry weather in Feb, then severe storms and tornados in April and May.

GaWx · Dec 17, 2016

Today's EPS MJO fcast is actually even a little more favorable for SE cold than yesterday with it trending slightly more toward the left half of the circle toward days 8-10:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

Let's see if that happens. Whereas the MJO is far from the end all be all factor due to too many other influences, the left side of the circle either within or just outside for long periods has on average been associated with a good bit colder SE US temp than, say, an MJO well on the outside of the right side. Even inside the right side has on avg been colder than outside the right side. Inside or just outside on left side has on avg been colder than well outside on the left. Outside the left side has averaged colder than outside the right. Sometimes, however, it gets mild even in normally colder MJO locations & vice versa. So it is just as for any index just a tool to give an idea about tendencies/probabilities as opposed to a crystal ball.

NCSNOW · Dec 17, 2016

Larry thanks for the update and explanation. Keep us posted, working out better than Cohens theories.

Dang sun trying to peak out. Wanted to stay in 30s today, cause tommorow is torch till front. Went with -2 for December and may end up to warm for greensboro. Be something if mby ends up below normal D,J,F . Exact opposite 9f last year's epic bust on warm side against seasonal outlooks. This year seasonal outlooks called for burnt toast overall.

Storm5 · Dec 17, 2016

Re: December Discussion

12z Euro says bundle up in the 8-10 day range stating at Christmas

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whatalife · Dec 17, 2016

Storm5 link said:
12z Euro says bundle up in the 8-10 day range stating at Christmas

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Yep nice and cold...

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SoutheastRidge · Dec 17, 2016

whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2502#msg2502 date=1482000997]
12z Euro says bundle up in the 8-10 day range stating at Christmas

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