man the " torch " that was showing in previous gfs runs is all but gone. the end of next week's looks entertaining
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Pattern December Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
whatalife
Moderator
Nice...Storm5 link said:man the " torch " that was showing in previous gfs runs is all but gone. the end of next week's looks entertaining
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Snowman63
Member
Simply amazing...The Memphis forecast for Saturday and Sunday... High of 73 and thunderstorms on Saturday... Saturday night the arctic front rolls in with a 90% chance FZR and sleet with .5" of ice possible...Sunday, sunny with a high near 28 with winds out of the north at 20 mph...Sunday night clear and a low of 14. That's a 60 degree temperature drop from thunderstorms to possible ice...while not unprecedented it certainly is unusual. 
Saturday
A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
Rain showers before midnight, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 26. Blustery, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 28. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 14. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.
Saturday
A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
Rain showers before midnight, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 26. Blustery, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 28. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 14. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Seems like when the models show a torch they end up backing off just a day or two later. Really feel like we could have a good storm before the end of the month. We have tonight's little event, and another possible event Monday night into Tuesday. Seen this happen before where we get a couple of small events here followed by a big one soon after.
Appetizers !Brick Tamland link said:
Storm5 link said:
Yep. What big torch as the Euro has cooled for the 6-10 to near normal or even a little colder than normal. Note that the Euro's (EPS) MJO fcast actually continues to be more favorable for cold than mild fwiw with very low amp and trying to rotate back to the left side of the circle:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
Per the Euro, ATL will be very near normal for Dec mtd as of 12/26. That would bode better than Dec ending up mild as far as the stats suggest for chances of a torchy Jan. Also, as stated above, the MJO doesn't give much support for a mild SE. If anything, it is more conducive for cold than mild fwiw. We'll see.
GaWx link said:
Yep. What big torch as the Euro has cooled for the 6-10 to near normal or even a little colder than normal. Note that the Euro's (EPS) MJO fcast actually continues to be more favorable for cold than mild fwiw with very low amp and trying to rotate back to the left side of the circle:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
[/quote]
Yep the euro keeps rdu at or below normal all week next week.
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drfranklin
Member
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bigstick10 link said:
as a total weather amateur, this question is for the experts: how do the global models handle extreme cold airmass(es)? does forecast accuracy drop?
Re: December Discussion
as a total weather amateur, this question is for the experts: how do the global models handle extreme cold airmass(es)? does forecast accuracy drop?
[/quote]
I'm no expert that's for sure . i guess this is more a pattern response but at least for this young season the models have struggled greatly IMO .HM mentions over and over the fact that the models are not handling the pacific wave train correctly which is why we have seen well above normal looks verify much closer to normal. This is not a good pattern for the SE as SD has pointed out many times. But here we are averaging out closer to normal with some little threats hear and there when in reality we could be well above normal.
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drfranklin link said:
as a total weather amateur, this question is for the experts: how do the global models handle extreme cold airmass(es)? does forecast accuracy drop?
[/quote]
I'm no expert that's for sure . i guess this is more a pattern response but at least for this young season the models have struggled greatly IMO .HM mentions over and over the fact that the models are not handling the pacific wave train correctly which is why we have seen well above normal looks verify much closer to normal. This is not a good pattern for the SE as SD has pointed out many times. But here we are averaging out closer to normal with some little threats hear and there when in reality we could be well above normal.
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drfranklin link said:
as a total weather amateur, this question is for the experts: how do the global models handle extreme cold airmass(es)? does forecast accuracy drop?
[/quote]
They seem to do ok on the cold, this cold shot has been pretty well modeled and Chicago and Minneapolis and all those areas are very close to December record cold and all we get is a day or two at 15-20 degrees below avg , then back to your ho hum avg to maybe occasional 10 degree below normal highs! Would be nice to get some single digits into the Carolinas and Georgia, but maybe that's just me! Glad the Christmas torch, looks to be muted, to non existent!
ATLwxfan
Member
GFS has lows in the mid 60's Monday after Xmas. No way that verifies. Right?
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JHS
Member
We are going to have to wait until Feb for any winter weather. This winter seems to be playing out like the winter of 1988-89 which means no chance for snow or ice until around Feb 15 and then only for NC and SC. Little if any winter weather in AL, GA, or Miss this winter.
Lol! I thought we were gonna have to wait till January for rain???JHS link said:
ATLWxFan link said:
The EPS says no
Tarheel1 link said:
as a total weather amateur, this question is for the experts: how do the global models handle extreme cold airmass(es)? does forecast accuracy drop?
[/quote]
They seem to do ok on the cold, this cold shot has been pretty well modeled and Chicago and Minneapolis and all those areas are very close to December record cold and all we get is a day or two at 15-20 degrees below avg , then back to your ho hum avg to maybe occasional 10 degree below normal highs! Would be nice to get some single digits into the Carolinas and Georgia, but maybe that's just me! Glad the Christmas torch, looks to be muted, to non existent!
[/quote]
I don't know about your area but I do know that single digits would much more often than mean no significant winter storm for a place like ATL though that may give places much further south/east a better chance. ATL has a much better chance when it gets a day or two of lows in the 20's vs singles in advance of any precip. This is based on going through all of the major storms going back to the late 1800's. I may need to go through the #'s & present them here if I ever get time.
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NorthGaWinter
Guest
12z gfs has snow around day 10 for miss, Alabama and Ga. it's from a low cutting up the apps so it's wrap around but it's still something
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NorthGaWinter
Guest
If that low doesn't go up the apps it's a good snowstorm for many. If you're on the west side of that low you're getting snow
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The kind of cold snap we got yesterday just came too early for the South to get really cold temps. If it came a month later, a lot of locales would have struggled to get above freezing.
The polar vortex was involved and it was strong, there just wasn't enough snowpack for it in the northern parts of North America to not moderate a little.
The polar vortex was involved and it was strong, there just wasn't enough snowpack for it in the northern parts of North America to not moderate a little.