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Pattern December Discussion

Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1775#msg1775 date=1481655533]
Some areas got upwards of 0.7-0.8" liquid equivalent on that Euro run in central NC. I sure hope some of this is sleet...
ecmwf_precip_24_raleigh_31-1024x768.png
Click to expand...

That doesn't look dry to me. If that's mostly frozen, could be a bigger deal.
[/quote]

Yeah exactly, this Euro run was actually a lot wetter in central NC...
Most areas get double-triple the amount of precip...
ecmwf_precip_24_raleigh_33-1024x768.png

I don't expect the models to handle overrunning/isentropic lifting terribly well this far out either. They're usually underdone w/ the strength of the CAD, northern extent, intensity, & amount of CAD precip this far in advance but there's still plenty of time for it to change.
 
Cary_Snow95 link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg1781#msg1781 date=1481656039]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1775#msg1775 date=1481655533]
Some areas got upwards of 0.7-0.8" liquid equivalent on that Euro run in central NC. I sure hope some of this is sleet...
ecmwf_precip_24_raleigh_31-1024x768.png
Click to expand...

That doesn't look dry to me. If that's mostly frozen, could be a bigger deal.
[/quote]

Looked like most of that arrives after temps warm though.
[/quote]

The temperatures are actually below freezing for the duration of the event along a line from about Roanoke Rapids-Smithfield/Goldsboro-Lillington & into Rockingham-Wadesboro. The precip depicted in the triangle on this Euro run is mostly freezing rain.
 
Gonna have to find a kicker wave out in the pacific or something to shove the lp out of 4 corners area and preferably due east and not toward the lakes.
 
Re: December Discussion

bigstick10 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1777#msg1777 date=1481655749]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=2.msg1774#msg1774 date=1481655445]
Back to a blowtorch Christmas again, lol....
Click to expand...
Yeah , no its not. Not sure if your trolling or what

12z gfs Sunday the 25th
3c15b3171958ebbeb4680379ab42be9a.jpg


12z euro Friday the 23rd
dbbc96d519dc1a0e69d47a69e7485630.jpg


12z cmc the 23rd
be3460ed082af32d138090d6702cd54e.jpg

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

The GFS does not even go below freezing from the 21st to the 29th, just saying what the 12Z said, forgive my ignorance.. You all know everything...............
[/quote]

Doesn't mean it's a torch though
 
Re: December Discussion

bigstick10 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1777#msg1777 date=1481655749]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=2.msg1774#msg1774 date=1481655445]
Back to a blowtorch Christmas again, lol....
Click to expand...
Yeah , no its not. Not sure if your trolling or what

12z gfs Sunday the 25th
3c15b3171958ebbeb4680379ab42be9a.jpg


12z euro Friday the 23rd
dbbc96d519dc1a0e69d47a69e7485630.jpg


12z cmc the 23rd
be3460ed082af32d138090d6702cd54e.jpg

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

The GFS does not even go below freezing from the 21st to the 29th, just saying what the 12Z said, forgive my ignorance.. You all know everything...............
[/quote]
you said blowtorch lol temps are at or BN . what does below freezing have to do with what you said

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
I like what webber is cooking. He sounds pretty convinced we'll be singing some ice, ice, baby next week.
 
Webberweather53 link said:
[quote author=Cary_Snow95 link=topic=2.msg1783#msg1783 date=1481656245]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg1781#msg1781 date=1481656039]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1775#msg1775 date=1481655533]
Some areas got upwards of 0.7-0.8" liquid equivalent on that Euro run in central NC. I sure hope some of this is sleet...
ecmwf_precip_24_raleigh_31-1024x768.png
Click to expand...

That doesn't look dry to me. If that's mostly frozen, could be a bigger deal.
[/quote]

Looked like most of that arrives after temps warm though.
[/quote]

The temperatures are actually below freezing for the duration of the event along a line from about Roanoke Rapids-Smithfield/Goldsboro-Lillington & into Rockingham-Wadesboro. The precip depicted in the triangle on this Euro run is mostly freezing rain.
[/quote]
Oh right on. Thanks for the clarification. Nice to have you back in here Eric!
 
Looks like the Euro would be all freezing rain for central NC. 850s are quite warm and 925s stay above freezing so the cold air is very shallow.
 
SD link said:
Looks like the Euro would be all freezing rain for central NC. 850s are quite warm and 925s stay above freezing so the cold air is very shallow.
Click to expand...
Yeah that's always iffy with a very shallow layer in-situ wedge.  Too high of rates and it scours out fast.  As depicted, this looks like it would be just the right rates to lock in the cold.  Still expect many changes over the next few days.  It does not look warm though.  Maybe the models will keep having warmth in the long range, only to back away from pumping the SE ridge as time draws closer.
 
Thanks guys... Think we should give this another day or so, but it's nice to at least have some model consensus this far in advance (although it's almost certain to be temporary lol).
 
Re: December Discussion

bigstick10 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1777#msg1777 date=1481655749]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=2.msg1774#msg1774 date=1481655445]
Back to a blowtorch Christmas again, lol....
Click to expand...
Yeah , no its not. Not sure if your trolling or what

12z gfs Sunday the 25th
3c15b3171958ebbeb4680379ab42be9a.jpg


12z euro Friday the 23rd
dbbc96d519dc1a0e69d47a69e7485630.jpg


12z cmc the 23rd
be3460ed082af32d138090d6702cd54e.jpg

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

The GFS does not even go below freezing from the 21st to the 29th, just saying what the 12Z said, forgive my ignorance.. You all know everything...............
[/quote]

Maybe for your backyard it doesn't. I see multiple days during this time period that go well below freezing for my area.
 
SD link said:
Looks like the Euro would be all freezing rain for central NC. 850s are quite warm and 925s stay above freezing so the cold air is very shallow.
Click to expand...

Could mean some snap, crackle, and pop.
 
Webberweather53 link said:
EPS mean has ~0.35-0.4" of liquid equivalent precipitation from this system next week in the Triangle, most of which is presumably ice.
Click to expand...

You guys are in trouble if it gets wetter/colder.
 
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