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Pattern December Discussion

Starburst link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1700#msg1700 date=1481638770]
I wouldn't be surprised to see the massive/poleward Aleutian ridge return by the 1st-2nd week of January once the tropical forcing shifts back into the Indian Ocean forcing the Pacific jet to retract again. We're in a QBO/ENSO base state (WQBO/-ENSO) that favors a high-latitude Aleutian/far North Pacific ridge, and tropical pacific forcing in this background will only act to suppress the ridge into the central Pacific, therefore causing a stronger than normal Pacific jet to enforce mild/Pacific air across North America. Even though the polar vortex is liable to recover somewhat in the near-term, the redevelopment of the Scanadinavian Ridge-Alaskan vortex configuration should cause WAFz (wave activity flux) to increase again in the medium-long range, thus at least giving us a chance to get another -AO surge later in January if we get can sustain that and get enough tropospheric forcing @ the right time to get a huge lobe of the polar vortex to sit over North America. As far as I'm concerned, if we don't see a nice PV lobe over North America in January &/or February, we're going to probably have issues wrt getting cold air into the east-central US. January is highly uncertain wrt its sensible impacts, but I'd lean above average here if anything. I'm not holding out much hope for February this year given the nearly unanimous signals for warmth in that month from the climate models, analogs, and the canonical QBO/ENSO progression, but we shall see.

I produced this graphic several weeks ago when I made my winter forecast, thus far I'm fairly pleased w/ how December has played out, the blend of these 3 sets of years seemed to be the most realistic route. As you can probably tell, there's a lot of uncertainty w/ January, but pretty remarkable consensus on a warm February here.

Pardon me if the picture is cut-off I did my best to resize
Click to expand...

Eric, is that you?
[/quote]

Yep sure is. Took me a while to find this place...
 
Starburst link said:
I had really food hopes (internally) for the 15th-20th time.  Oh well.  As I get older, the more just plain annoyed I get with this whole weather model thing.
Click to expand...
  Lol, ...now you are getting it.  Don't look at the models...what do they know?  When you get to be as old as I am, you've lost your frustration..it's all peace and tranquillity....and Larry's Zen acceptance of whatever weather brings...smooth sailing... happiness when you look out and see what's offered by the climate...until you screw up and look at the models again :)  I too used to rage in frustration...but now I let climo be my guide...if it ain't happened in forever, it probably won't happen now..and if it does..it'll surprise the crap out of everyone, models included, lol. Larry said 1917 for the Atlanta area...that's lots and lots of Dec. no's and I've lived thu a bunch of them..each one fuelling a smouldering rage in my youth, but now I just give  a knowing nod, lol.  When you've gotten no, over and over, you just get broken... a shell... and it doesn't hurt as bad, because you are always  battered.  That's the peace loving sleet, and snow, in the south brings!  Broken shells of shattered hopes and dreams, lol.  Until you get one...and then you have to suffer the  whole thing all over again..because hope springs eternal...it's cruel, and torturous, and it's the gods laughing at you for living in the deep south :)  Like CR's Xmas snow...now it finally happened in the Atl area, hope is renewed that it can happen again... that's how the snow gods get you..to twist the  knife...to take foolish little boys and girls and make their lives each Dec. a living hell..wishing and hoping for snow on Christmas..because it happened once....not realizing it might take another 100 years, lol.  Oh, the humanity!!
 
Dsaur link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1434#msg1434 date=1481518036]
I had really food hopes (internally) for the 15th-20th time.  Oh well.  As I get older, the more just plain annoyed I get with this whole weather model thing.
Click to expand...
  Lol, ...now you are getting it.  Don't look at the models...what do they know?  When you get to be as old as I am, you've lost your frustration..it's all peace and tranquillity....and Larry's Zen acceptance of whatever weather brings...smooth sailing... happiness when you look out and see what's offered by the climate...until you screw up and look at the models again :)  I too used to rage in frustration...but now I let climo be my guide...if it ain't happened in forever, it probably won't happen now..and if it does..it'll surprise the crap out of everyone, models included, lol. Larry said 1917 for the Atlanta area...that's lots and lots of Dec. no's and I've lived thu a bunch of them..each one fuelling a smouldering rage in my youth, but now I just give  a knowing nod, lol.  When you've gotten no, over and over, you just get broken... a shell... and it doesn't hurt as bad, because you are always  battered.  That's the peace loving sleet, and snow, in the south brings!  Broken shells of shattered hopes and dreams, lol.  Until you get one...and then you have to suffer the  whole thing all over again..because hope springs eternal...it's cruel, and torturous, and it's the gods laughing at you for living in the deep south :)  Like CR's Xmas snow...now it finally happened in the Atl area, hope is renewed that it can happen again... that's how the snow gods get you..to twist the  knife...to take foolish little boys and girls and make their lives each Dec. a living hell..wishing and hoping for snow on Christmas..because it happened once....not realizing it might take another 100 years, lol.  Oh, the humanity!!
[/quote]

Tony, have you ever thought about writing books?  That's wonderful!
 
Re: December Discussion

large changes on the euro for next week. much warmer mid week . really buries the western energy turning the flow SW

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
You definitely don't see a 1046 high in New England on both the GFS & Euro over fresh snow cover every day... Extremely impressive to say the least.

ecmwf_slp_precip_east_27-1024x768.png



gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png
 
Dsaur link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1434#msg1434 date=1481518036]
I had really food hopes (internally) for the 15th-20th time.  Oh well.  As I get older, the more just plain annoyed I get with this whole weather model thing.
Click to expand...
  Lol, ...now you are getting it.  Don't look at the models...what do they know?  When you get to be as old as I am, you've lost your frustration..it's all peace and tranquillity....and Larry's Zen acceptance of whatever weather brings...smooth sailing... happiness when you look out and see what's offered by the climate...until you screw up and look at the models again :)  I too used to rage in frustration...but now I let climo be my guide...if it ain't happened in forever, it probably won't happen now..and if it does..it'll surprise the crap out of everyone, models included, lol. Larry said 1917 for the Atlanta area...that's lots and lots of Dec. no's and I've lived thu a bunch of them..each one fuelling a smouldering rage in my youth, but now I just give  a knowing nod, lol.  When you've gotten no, over and over, you just get broken... a shell... and it doesn't hurt as bad, because you are always  battered.  That's the peace loving sleet, and snow, in the south brings!  Broken shells of shattered hopes and dreams, lol.  Until you get one...and then you have to suffer the  whole thing all over again..because hope springs eternal...it's cruel, and torturous, and it's the gods laughing at you for living in the deep south :)  Like CR's Xmas snow...now it finally happened in the Atl area, hope is renewed that it can happen again... that's how the snow gods get you..to twist the  knife...to take foolish little boys and girls and make their lives each Dec. a living hell..wishing and hoping for snow on Christmas..because it happened once....not realizing it might take another 100 years, lol.  Oh, the humanity!!
[/quote]
I could not have said it better. I see the sleet man is in rare form today.
 
Re: December Discussion

bigstick10 link said:
Back to a blowtorch Christmas again, lol....
Click to expand...
Yeah , no its not. Not sure if your trolling or what

12z gfs Sunday the 25th
3c15b3171958ebbeb4680379ab42be9a.jpg


12z euro Friday the 23rd
dbbc96d519dc1a0e69d47a69e7485630.jpg


12z cmc the 23rd
be3460ed082af32d138090d6702cd54e.jpg

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Starburst link said:
[quote author=Dsaur link=topic=2.msg1766#msg1766 date=1481654698]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1434#msg1434 date=1481518036]
I had really food hopes (internally) for the 15th-20th time.  Oh well.  As I get older, the more just plain annoyed I get with this whole weather model thing.
Click to expand...

Tony, have you ever thought about writing books?  That's wonderful!
[/quote]  Thanks, Shawn, but who'd want to buy a book about tortured, shattered little snow loving kids, lol.  I do think a study about the psychology of loving sleet and snow in the south would be illuminating, lol.  There must be something twisted and wrong about us, lol.  Or special, and blessed...not quite sure which...maybe just simple minded and trusting in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, lol.  T
 
Texas is the new snow capital of the south.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=2.msg1774#msg1774 date=1481655445]
Back to a blowtorch Christmas again, lol....
Click to expand...
Yeah , no its not

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Forgive Max, his shirtlessness gets in the way sometimes!
Let's hope the models are wrong about the shortwave getting stuck in the SW!?
 
Webberweather53 link said:
Some areas got upwards of 0.7-0.8" liquid equivalent on that Euro run in central NC. I sure hope some of this is sleet...
ecmwf_precip_24_raleigh_31-1024x768.png
Click to expand...

That doesn't look dry to me. If that's mostly frozen, could be a bigger deal.
 
Cad Wedge NC link said:
[quote author=Dsaur link=topic=2.msg1766#msg1766 date=1481654698]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1434#msg1434 date=1481518036]
I had really food hopes (internally) for the 15th-20th time.  Oh well.  As I get older, the more just plain annoyed I get with this whole weather model thing.
I could not have said it better. I see the sleet man is in rare form today.
Click to expand...
  Thanks, Cad...just making sure my frustration wards are in place.  Reminding myself..I must not believe, I must not believe.  It may look like light glinting off sleet, but it's not real...don't fall for it again this year....it Isn't Real!!!!!
Click to expand...
 
Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1775#msg1775 date=1481655533]
Some areas got upwards of 0.7-0.8" liquid equivalent on that Euro run in central NC. I sure hope some of this is sleet...
ecmwf_precip_24_raleigh_31-1024x768.png
Click to expand...

That doesn't look dry to me. If that's mostly frozen, could be a bigger deal.
[/quote]

Looked like most of that arrives after temps warm though.
 
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