Pattern December Discussion

[Brick Tamland]

After that the Euro keeps going wave after wave.  Maybe Brick isn't such a nut talking about his "little systems not doing much" until around Christmas.

Yeah, not saying we see something on Christmas like in 2010, but this is really similar to what happened then with two or three threats before we got that storm.

 

[SD]

[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1680#msg1680 date=1481612363]
After that the Euro keeps going wave after wave.  Maybe Brick isn't such a nut talking about his "little systems not doing much" until around Christmas.

Yeah, not saying we see something on Christmas like in 2010, but this is really similar to what happened then with two or three threats before we got that storm.
[/quote]

I just like the fact that the sustained warmth continually gets pushed back.

 

[Webberweather53]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the massive/poleward Aleutian ridge return by the 1st-2nd week of January once the tropical forcing shifts back into the Indian Ocean forcing the Pacific jet to retract again. We're in a QBO/ENSO base state (WQBO/-ENSO) that favors a high-latitude Aleutian/far North Pacific ridge, and tropical pacific forcing in this background will only act to suppress the ridge into the central Pacific, therefore causing a stronger than normal Pacific jet to enforce mild/Pacific air across North America. Even though the polar vortex is liable to recover somewhat in the near-term, the redevelopment of the Scanadinavian Ridge-Alaskan vortex configuration should cause WAFz (wave activity flux) to increase again in the medium-long range, thus at least giving us a chance to get another -AO surge later in January if we get can sustain that and get enough tropospheric forcing @ the right time to get a huge lobe of the polar vortex to sit over North America. As far as I'm concerned, if we don't see a nice PV lobe over North America in January &/or February, we're going to probably have issues wrt getting cold air into the east-central US. January is highly uncertain wrt its sensible impacts, but I'd lean above average here if anything. I'm not holding out much hope for February this year given the nearly unanimous signals for warmth in that month from the climate models, analogs, and the canonical QBO/ENSO progression, but we shall see.

I produced this graphic several weeks ago when I made my winter forecast, thus far I'm fairly pleased w/ how December has played out, the blend of these 3 sets of years seemed to be the most realistic route. As you can probably tell, there's a lot of uncertainty w/ January, but pretty remarkable consensus on a warm February here.

http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/ENSO-QBO-base-state-and-2016-17-winter-analogs-1-1024x797.jpg
Pardon me if the picture is cut-off I did my best to resize

 

[Tarheel1]

Awesome! After next weeks threats, looks like torch city, according to Webber!

 

[accu35]

G :snowman: :snowstorm: :snowmanod times ahead, glad to see this pattern looking much better.

 

[accu35]

Awesome! After next weeks threats, looks like torch city, according to Webber!

I wouldn't bet on that, GFS has us on the cold side throught out run, not saying we dont torch but saying we enter Jamming Jan like  Lion.

 

[GaStorm]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the massive/poleward Aleutian ridge return by the 1st-2nd week of January once the tropical forcing shifts back into the Indian Ocean forcing the Pacific jet to retract again. We're in a QBO/ENSO base state (WQBO/-ENSO) that favors a high-latitude Aleutian/far North Pacific ridge, and tropical pacific forcing in this background will only act to suppress the ridge into the central Pacific, therefore causing a stronger than normal Pacific jet to enforce mild/Pacific air across North America. Even though the polar vortex is liable to recover somewhat in the near-term, the redevelopment of the Scanadinavian Ridge-Alaskan vortex configuration should cause WAFz (wave activity flux) to increase again in the medium-long range, thus at least giving us a chance to get another -AO surge later in January if we get can sustain that and get enough tropospheric forcing @ the right time to get a huge lobe of the polar vortex to sit over North America. As far as I'm concerned, if we don't see a nice PV lobe over North America in January &/or February, we're going to probably have issues wrt getting cold air into the east-central US. January is highly uncertain wrt its sensible impacts, but I'd lean above average here if anything. I'm not holding out much hope for February this year given the nearly unanimous signals for warmth in that month from the climate models, analogs, and the canonical QBO/ENSO progression, but we shall see.

I produced this graphic several weeks ago when I made my winter forecast, thus far I'm fairly pleased w/ how December has played out, the blend of these 3 sets of years seemed to be the most realistic route. As you can probably tell, there's a lot of uncertainty w/ January, but pretty remarkable consensus on a warm February here.

If the Nina fades fast I wouldn't count out February yet.

 

[accu35]

[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1700#msg1700 date=1481638770]
I wouldn't be surprised to see the massive/poleward Aleutian ridge return by the 1st-2nd week of January once the tropical forcing shifts back into the Indian Ocean forcing the Pacific jet to retract again. We're in a QBO/ENSO base state (WQBO/-ENSO) that favors a high-latitude Aleutian/far North Pacific ridge, and tropical pacific forcing in this background will only act to suppress the ridge into the central Pacific, therefore causing a stronger than normal Pacific jet to enforce mild/Pacific air across North America. Even though the polar vortex is liable to recover somewhat in the near-term, the redevelopment of the Scanadinavian Ridge-Alaskan vortex configuration should cause WAFz (wave activity flux) to increase again in the medium-long range, thus at least giving us a chance to get another -AO surge later in January if we get can sustain that and get enough tropospheric forcing @ the right time to get a huge lobe of the polar vortex to sit over North America. As far as I'm concerned, if we don't see a nice PV lobe over North America in January &/or February, we're going to probably have issues wrt getting cold air into the east-central US. January is highly uncertain wrt its sensible impacts, but I'd lean above average here if anything. I'm not holding out much hope for February this year given the nearly unanimous signals for warmth in that month from the climate models, analogs, and the canonical QBO/ENSO progression, but we shall see.

I produced this graphic several weeks ago when I made my winter forecast, thus far I'm fairly pleased w/ how December has played out, the blend of these 3 sets of years seemed to be the most realistic route. As you can probably tell, there's a lot of uncertainty w/ January, but pretty remarkable consensus on a warm February here.

If the Nina fades fast I wouldn't count out February yet.
[/quote] yeah, also like many have said Jan, Feb will give us a better chance at WINTER STORMS in the southeast

 

[Webberweather53]

[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg1700#msg1700 date=1481638770]
I wouldn't be surprised to see the massive/poleward Aleutian ridge return by the 1st-2nd week of January once the tropical forcing shifts back into the Indian Ocean forcing the Pacific jet to retract again. We're in a QBO/ENSO base state (WQBO/-ENSO) that favors a high-latitude Aleutian/far North Pacific ridge, and tropical pacific forcing in this background will only act to suppress the ridge into the central Pacific, therefore causing a stronger than normal Pacific jet to enforce mild/Pacific air across North America. Even though the polar vortex is liable to recover somewhat in the near-term, the redevelopment of the Scanadinavian Ridge-Alaskan vortex configuration should cause WAFz (wave activity flux) to increase again in the medium-long range, thus at least giving us a chance to get another -AO surge later in January if we get can sustain that and get enough tropospheric forcing @ the right time to get a huge lobe of the polar vortex to sit over North America. As far as I'm concerned, if we don't see a nice PV lobe over North America in January &/or February, we're going to probably have issues wrt getting cold air into the east-central US. January is highly uncertain wrt its sensible impacts, but I'd lean above average here if anything. I'm not holding out much hope for February this year given the nearly unanimous signals for warmth in that month from the climate models, analogs, and the canonical QBO/ENSO progression, but we shall see.

I produced this graphic several weeks ago when I made my winter forecast, thus far I'm fairly pleased w/ how December has played out, the blend of these 3 sets of years seemed to be the most realistic route. As you can probably tell, there's a lot of uncertainty w/ January, but pretty remarkable consensus on a warm February here.

If the Nina fades fast I wouldn't count out February yet.
[/quote]

I actually don't think that really matters terribly much whether we end up w/ a weak NINA or significant cool neutral ENSO event, the inter-event variability wrt the sensible impacts of these phases of ENSO is the largest amongst all ENSO types, hence ENSO's overall role (although significant) can be rather elusive in a weak NINA-cool neutral, but I will say when I experimented w/ a cool neutral ENSO background state, the same temperature distributions remained (warm SE, cool NW) but they were a bit tempered. Even if the NINA completely collapses right now, it would take a few months or more for its impacts to run their course throughout the overall climate system. The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) & Adjusted, Pentad Averaged Bivariate ENSO Timeseries (BEST) indices i'm currently running were both in weak NINA territory last month. The twin westerly QBO regimes is definitely helping prop up this event via enhancement of off-equatorial convection (& thus the SE Asia & Australian monsoon circulations) & if we maintain a WQBO regime through this fall, I would expect La Nina conditions to return next year, w/ potentially a stronger event than this year in 2017-18, but if EQBO finally makes an appearance, then we may crawl towards neutral or warm neutral, but I'm doubtful of the latter scenario atm...
There's no denying that a weaker NINA event going into the late portions of this winter would certainly help to some extent to take some of the edge off the canonical NINA progression w/ a warmer than normal SE US in FEB but I'm not sure about its significance.

Adjusted, Pentad Averaged BEST Index ranks (1870-Present)
http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Adjusted-Bivariate-ENSO-Timeseries-BEST-Index-Rankings-1870-Present.txt

NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) data and ranks (1948-Present)
http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/NCEPNCAR-Multivariate-ENSO-Index-MEI-Raw-Data-Rankings-1948-present-v2.0.txt

 

[NCSNOW]

See if we can atleast luck up and get a snow sounding, good 850s for a quick front end thump next Tues. Even if it's only for an hour before the iceman rolls in and sets up shop. Ice hanging off the trees is alot more attractive with a white ground. And if the euro/EPS is right i'll be spending a few days having an old fashion Christmas by candlelight.

 

[ATLwxfan]

I'm no meteorologist but It sure seems like predictive modeling has taken a hit the last few years. Climate change (manmade or otherwise) has changed the game.  We can't reliably predict a week out, how can we do so 2 months out. Winter just started. Let's see where it goes.


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[accu35]

12z gfs really trying with the 17,18th system

 

[RollTide18]

12z gfs really trying with the 17,18th system

Yep

 

[Brick Tamland]

GFS does have something frozen. So looks like it is going to the icy solution, too.

 

[ATLwxfan]

The 'ol backside snow/ice mind trick.


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[SD]

This run should be fun post 192

 

[accu35]

[quote author=accu35 link=topic=2.msg1722#msg1722 date=1481645759]
12z gfs really trying with the 17,18th system

Yep

[/quote] I know we need a stronger push of cold but that looks better. Plus it's like a over running event for couple of days. CMC may be on to something

 

[Brick Tamland]

 

[Supershow]

Nice little LP riding up thru the ArkLaTex next week - we need a stronger HP to push it south and then this board would really light up

 

[Storm5]

Re: December Discussion

closed low over texas.... that could fun. whoever gets under that would get dumped on

yep just west of dallas...crushed

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