Pattern December Discussion

[JHS]

Does anyone know if the pivotal weather maps are accurate for ice accumulation?  if they are correct, it's a quite bigger icing situation.  of course, that kind of wedge wouldn't erode too quickly, especially with consistent light-moderate precipitation.

It's 5 days away of course, but the area from Gainesville GA through the GSP metro and to Hickory NC might get a nice storm if timing is right and precip is heavy enough. The map I saw had up to .15 to .20 on it from around Lake Lanier in GA over to the GSP metro. Lesser amounts up into NC probably due to later timing. No clue though if those maps are accurate. If we have ZR and it's around 28-30 Sat morning it will not warm up as early as expected. A good case in point about how tough wedges can be is back in 2015 when upstate SC was supposed to get rain, but we got freezing rain and eventually sleet and temps dropped back to around 28 instead of warming up. The icestorm was up to 50-75 miles west and south of where it was supposed to be.

 

[SD]

[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1595#msg1595 date=1481581493]

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

might be time for you to take a timeout

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Just saying. There is a good chance we could be saved by a -epo

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

 

[CummingWx]

[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1608#msg1608 date=1481583838]
Does anyone know if the pivotal weather maps are accurate for ice accumulation?  if they are correct, it's a quite bigger icing situation.  of course, that kind of wedge wouldn't erode too quickly, especially with consistent light-moderate precipitation.

It's 5 days away of course, but the area from Gainesville GA through the GSP metro and to Hickory NC might get a nice storm if timing is right and precip is heavy enough. The map I saw had up to .15 to .20 on it from around Lake Lanier in GA over to the GSP metro. Lesser amounts up into NC probably due to later timing. No clue though if those maps are accurate. If we have ZR and it's around 28-30 Sat morning it will not warm up as early as expected. A good case in point about how tough wedges can be is back in 2015 when upstate SC was supposed to get rain, but we got freezing rain and eventually sleet and temps dropped back to around 28 instead of warming up. The icestorm was up to 50-75 miles west and south of where it was supposed to be.
[/quote]

I believe you're referring to February 16, 2015. There was ice here as well and FFC kept playing catchup by placing counties to the S/W in a winter storm warning. My last big icestorm.

 

[WeatherLC]

[quote author=JHS link=topic=2.msg1613#msg1613 date=1481585109]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1608#msg1608 date=1481583838]
Does anyone know if the pivotal weather maps are accurate for ice accumulation?  if they are correct, it's a quite bigger icing situation.  of course, that kind of wedge wouldn't erode too quickly, especially with consistent light-moderate precipitation.

It's 5 days away of course, but the area from Gainesville GA through the GSP metro and to Hickory NC might get a nice storm if timing is right and precip is heavy enough. The map I saw had up to .15 to .20 on it from around Lake Lanier in GA over to the GSP metro. Lesser amounts up into NC probably due to later timing. No clue though if those maps are accurate. If we have ZR and it's around 28-30 Sat morning it will not warm up as early as expected. A good case in point about how tough wedges can be is back in 2015 when upstate SC was supposed to get rain, but we got freezing rain and eventually sleet and temps dropped back to around 28 instead of warming up. The icestorm was up to 50-75 miles west and south of where it was supposed to be.
[/quote]

I believe you're referring to February 16, 2015. There was ice here as well and FFC kept playing catchup by placing counties to the S/W in a winter storm warning. My last big icestorm.
[/quote]Welcome aboard.

 

[CummingWx]

[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=2.msg1625#msg1625 date=1481589022]
[quote author=JHS link=topic=2.msg1613#msg1613 date=1481585109]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1608#msg1608 date=1481583838]
Does anyone know if the pivotal weather maps are accurate for ice accumulation?  if they are correct, it's a quite bigger icing situation.  of course, that kind of wedge wouldn't erode too quickly, especially with consistent light-moderate precipitation.

It's 5 days away of course, but the area from Gainesville GA through the GSP metro and to Hickory NC might get a nice storm if timing is right and precip is heavy enough. The map I saw had up to .15 to .20 on it from around Lake Lanier in GA over to the GSP metro. Lesser amounts up into NC probably due to later timing. No clue though if those maps are accurate. If we have ZR and it's around 28-30 Sat morning it will not warm up as early as expected. A good case in point about how tough wedges can be is back in 2015 when upstate SC was supposed to get rain, but we got freezing rain and eventually sleet and temps dropped back to around 28 instead of warming up. The icestorm was up to 50-75 miles west and south of where it was supposed to be.
[/quote]

I believe you're referring to February 16, 2015. There was ice here as well and FFC kept playing catchup by placing counties to the S/W in a winter storm warning. My last big icestorm.
[/quote]Welcome aboard.
[/quote]

Thanks. I found this place about 5 days ago, decided to register just now since we have a threat saturday morning.

 

[Brent]

GFS and the euro go from 80 Saturday afternoon to 20 Sunday morning here nice lol. Might be a famous blue norther.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

GFS and the euro go from 80 Saturday afternoon to 20 Sunday morning here nice lol. Might be a famous blue norther.

80 in December ? I don't think Atlanta has ever hit 80 in December in the history of records !

 

[Storm5]

[quote author=Brent link=topic=2.msg1629#msg1629 date=1481589436]
GFS and the euro go from 80 Saturday afternoon to 20 Sunday morning here nice lol. Might be a famous blue norther.

80 in December ? I don't think Atlanta has ever hit 80 in December in the history of records !
[/quote]
he lives in Texas he isn't talking about atlanta

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[$alt]

I'd like to point out, there is now a thread to the potential icing event this weekend located here - http://southernwx.com/forums/index.php/topic,46.0.html

 

[Rain Cold]

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1603#msg1603 date=1481582696]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1595#msg1595 date=1481581493]

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

might be time for you to take a timeout

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Just saying. There is a good chance we could be saved by a -epo

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Need help from other domains.  -EPO is good, but the tendency will be for the cold to get dumped in the Midwest, leaving us normal, requiring perfect timing for a winter storm.  Now, if we could just get some more SAI and a -AO....sigh.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg1633#msg1633 date=1481591357]
[quote author=Brent link=topic=2.msg1629#msg1629 date=1481589436]
GFS and the euro go from 80 Saturday afternoon to 20 Sunday morning here nice lol. Might be a famous blue norther.

80 in December ? I don't think Atlanta has ever hit 80 in December in the history of records !
[/quote]
he lives in Texas he isn't talking about atlanta

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote] Yeah I know. I was just comparing Dallas to Atlanta since they have similar winter temps on average.

 

[SD]

[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1614#msg1614 date=1481586163]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1603#msg1603 date=1481582696]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1595#msg1595 date=1481581493]

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

might be time for you to take a timeout

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Just saying. There is a good chance we could be saved by a -epo

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Need help from other domains.  -EPO is good, but the tendency will be for the cold to get dumped in the Midwest, leaving us normal, requiring perfect timing for a winter storm.  Now, if we could just get some more SAI and a -AO....sigh.
[/quote]

Unless we get something like 13-14 where the EPO is so dominant we are in a good spot. I'm not ready to go that far but I believe there will be times where the EPO is dominant enough so that it bends the PV southward similar to 13-14.

 

[Tarheel1]

[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1614#msg1614 date=1481586163]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1603#msg1603 date=1481582696]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1595#msg1595 date=1481581493]

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

might be time for you to take a timeout

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Just saying. There is a good chance we could be saved by a -epo

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Need help from other domains.  -EPO is good, but the tendency will be for the cold to get dumped in the Midwest, leaving us normal, requiring perfect timing for a winter storm.  Now, if we could just get some more SAI and a -AO....sigh.
[/quote]
What up big homie! I see you found Wilkes new hangout, and some weird pycnic guy is here too! Y'all seem vaguely familiar!
I think I saw on FB that JB said Russians hijacked the Brazillian and pioneer models, so blame them when he's wrong! Lol

 

[Rain Cold]

[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=2.msg1636#msg1636 date=1481592130]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1614#msg1614 date=1481586163]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1603#msg1603 date=1481582696]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1595#msg1595 date=1481581493]

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

might be time for you to take a timeout

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Just saying. There is a good chance we could be saved by a -epo

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Need help from other domains.  -EPO is good, but the tendency will be for the cold to get dumped in the Midwest, leaving us normal, requiring perfect timing for a winter storm.  Now, if we could just get some more SAI and a -AO....sigh.
[/quote]

Unless we get something like 13-14 where the EPO is so dominant we are in a good spot. I'm not ready to go that far but I believe there will be times where the EPO is dominant enough so that it bends the PV southward similar to 13-14.
[/quote]

Agreed.  I think we actually will end up with a favorable NAO and PNA signature at times this winter.  It seems like a stretch if you look at the models, but I think we'll get there a couple of times this winter.  Hopefully, we can make good use of those opportunities, if they come to fruition.

 

[Rain Cold]

[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=2.msg1636#msg1636 date=1481592130]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1614#msg1614 date=1481586163]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1603#msg1603 date=1481582696]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1595#msg1595 date=1481581493]

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

might be time for you to take a timeout

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Just saying. There is a good chance we could be saved by a -epo

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Need help from other domains.  -EPO is good, but the tendency will be for the cold to get dumped in the Midwest, leaving us normal, requiring perfect timing for a winter storm.  Now, if we could just get some more SAI and a -AO....sigh.
[/quote]
What up big homie! I see you found Wilkes new hangout, and some weird pycnic guy is here too! Y'all seem vaguely familiar!
I think I saw on FB that JB said Russians hijacked the Brazillian and pioneer models, so blame them when he's wrong! Lol
[/quote]

Tarheel1... SMH.  What happened to KSV or whatever that one was?!  You get all those trees cleaned up yet from the storm?

 

[Tarheel1]

[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg1642#msg1642 date=1481592950]
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=2.msg1636#msg1636 date=1481592130]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1614#msg1614 date=1481586163]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1603#msg1603 date=1481582696]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1595#msg1595 date=1481581493]

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

might be time for you to take a timeout

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Just saying. There is a good chance we could be saved by a -epo

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Need help from other domains.  -EPO is good, but the tendency will be for the cold to get dumped in the Midwest, leaving us normal, requiring perfect timing for a winter storm.  Now, if we could just get some more SAI and a -AO....sigh.
[/quote]
What up big homie! I see you found Wilkes new hangout, and some weird pycnic guy is here too! Y'all seem vaguely familiar!
I think I saw on FB that JB said Russians hijacked the Brazillian and pioneer models, so blame them when he's wrong! Lol
[/quote]

Tarheel1... SMH.  What happened to KSV or whatever that one was?!  You get all those trees cleaned up yet from the storm?
[/quote]
Yeah, mostly cleaned up! Lost 7 trees , pines and cedars, and have one pine left! Bradford pear in front, didn't lose a branch! Lol! Got a pile of limbs and branches about 6 feet tall, by about 15 feet long, waiting and hoping the county picks up!? Waiting on my ever-elusive wintry event! Shaun just shot those dreams down a few post back!

 

[Rain Cold]

^ Lol how does the Bradford Pear not lose a leaf?  Those things come apart in a small breeze.

 

[Tarheel1]

^ Lol how does the Bradford Pear not lose a leaf?  Those things come apart in a small breeze.

I know right! It's been through 3 or 4 good ice storms, the March 1 2009 paste bomb(8") and several good t storms and hail, an ef-1 tornado and hasn't lost a limb bigger than my pinkie! I just can't cut down a perfectly good tree!

 

[Brent]

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1634#msg1634 date=1481591965]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg1633#msg1633 date=1481591357]
[quote author=Brent link=topic=2.msg1629#msg1629 date=1481589436]
GFS and the euro go from 80 Saturday afternoon to 20 Sunday morning here nice lol. Might be a famous blue norther.

80 in December ? I don't think Atlanta has ever hit 80 in December in the history of records !
[/quote]
he lives in Texas he isn't talking about atlanta

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote] Yeah I know. I was just comparing Dallas to Atlanta since they have similar winter temps on average.
[/quote]

Hit 81 the day after Christmas last year when the tornado hit here. Almost everyday in December has a record high in the 80s. Our average is a few degrees warmer than Atlanta

 

[SoutheastRidge]

[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg1639#msg1639 date=1481592613]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1634#msg1634 date=1481591965]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg1633#msg1633 date=1481591357]
[quote author=Brent link=topic=2.msg1629#msg1629 date=1481589436]
GFS and the euro go from 80 Saturday afternoon to 20 Sunday morning here nice lol. Might be a famous blue norther.

80 in December ? I don't think Atlanta has ever hit 80 in December in the history of records !
[/quote]
he lives in Texas he isn't talking about atlanta

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote] Yeah I know. I was just comparing Dallas to Atlanta since they have similar winter temps on average.
[/quote]

Hit 81 the day after Christmas last year when the tornado hit here. Almost everyday in December has a record high in the 80s. Our average is a few degrees warmer than Atlanta
[/quote] Have you experienced any blue northers in Texas ?