I predict with confidence based on history that this late week upper low will give the ATL-AHN corridor very little or nothing. This is more of a far N AL and far NW GA potential. The only reasonable hope is for MAYBE some flurries/snow showers mainly on the NW side of ATL (Cobb) with a small chance for little to likely no accumulation. These types of systems almost always disappoint those in the ATL-AHN corridor who put much hope into them. ATL peeps would be best off if they would consider the models/just punt the rest of the month and not get their hopes up (at least for anything more than something very minor at best) and instead hope for something of significance in J, F, or M. I think the chance for either a 1.5”+ SN/IP from a Miller A or 0.50”+ ZR from a Miller B or a Miller A in the ATL-AHN corridor (or a combo in a portion of the area) at some point in J, F, or M is about 2/3 per longterm ENSO climo.
Down here in my area, the chances this winter of 0.5”+ SN/IP or 0.25”+ ZR as is the case in most winters are very low. Of the ~29 weak to low end moderate El Niño winters since 1876-7, SAV had only 2 winters with wintry precipitation that met these limits: the late Feb 1914 major ZR with some IP and the incredible TWO pure snows of Jan 1977 (0.7” and 1.3”). So, I’m giving it about a 10% chance and even that’s probably a bit generous. SAV’s best chance per climo for all ENSO for any one period is in the 2nd to 3rd week in Feb although significant wintry has occurred anywhere from late Dec through the first week of March.
I'm staying positive
something to watch ?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1_Tahv7raKk
