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Severe December 28th -new years possible severe weather event.

May want to extend the date.
scp.conus.png
 
Snowfan said:
May want to extend the date.
scp.conus.png
Click to expand...
Definitely a moist air mass setting up shop around the southeast for a good chunk of time. Models aren't in good agreement that far out though, heck the day 5 risk still isn't in good consensus with models lol. But I imagine with the moist air mass there will be some threat eventually down the road from the first potential batch. January seems to be a bad month for tornadoes in Alabama. Two ef3s just miles from me the last 10 years in January.
 
FROM SPC FOR DAY FIVE

Wed - Northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and vicinity...
Prior to D5, the warm sector moisture has been contaminated by
continental air which has led to weak instability across much of the
warm sector. However, by Tuesday night, a true maritime tropical
moisture feed is forecast to overtake the western Gulf of Mexico.
Persistent southerly flow will advect this airmass inland from
eastern Texas to northern Mississippi/Alabama by Wednesday
afternoon. Moderate instability should develop south of a front,
which is expected to be in place from eastern Texas into the
Tennessee/Ohio Valley region. There is decent model agreement with
the increasing low-level moisture and the relative position of the
surface front. However, the upper-level pattern does cast more
uncertainty on the forecast.

The details of any severe weather threat will come from the
evolution of the low-amplitude wave to eject from the larger scale
western CONUS upper-level trough. Predictability of the
timing/amplitude of upper-level troughs such as these is inherently
challenging, especially at Day 5. Therefore, it is unsurprising that
there is still considerable spread between available mid-range model
guidance. The last 2 runs of the ECMWF have shown a more amplified
mid-upper level trough which would initiate a greater low-level mass
response and likely lead to a greater severe-weather threat.

Therefore, uncertainty remains regarding the evolution, timing, and
amplitude of the upper-level pattern on Wednesday. However, there
has been a consistent signal for surface-based storms in an
environment with moderate buoyancy and strong shear for several
days. The aforementioned arrival of a maritime tropical airmass in
the vicinity of a surface front and at least weak height falls aloft
is consistent with at least scattered storm development. Therefore,
confidence is high enough to introduce 15 percent severe
probabilities for Wednesday.

..Bentley.. 12/25/2021
 
Again. Very isolated convection being shown for late wensday into early Thursday morning. Instability increases as the LLJ ramps up in the overnight hours.Screenshot_20211226-150325.pngScreenshot_20211226-150311.pngScreenshot_20211226-150346.pngScreenshot_20211226-150358.png
 
tennessee storm said:
Still think the second system around new years has a even higher ceiling
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I think so too. The wensday system though might be a banger. I'm pretty intrigued, looking at forecast soundings. Shows a loaded gun setup. There's a decent bit of supportive factors for wensday, the cape has ticked up with each new NAM run, wouldn't be surprised for a enhanced corridor at least. Might not be a tornado outbreak with the wensday system but it sure could produce 1 or 2 significant storms.
 
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