yea that definitely isn't Robert.
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Stormsfury
Member
00z NAM still keeps SAV and CHS with generally under a .10". QPF crept a littlr further inland on the coastal counties this run
Stormsfury
Member
THE 00z RGEM just hopped on board too...
dsaur
Member
Lol, when you've got cold air above and precip moving below, it's not over until it's over. I'm going to be real interested in how this looks in actuality, after all the moving parts find a chair to sit in. T
Edit: A lot of the models said I'd see sleet last night, and I did. Hard to refute that....we can quibble about amounts, lol. But the jist of it was like that for days....I'd see sleet. They were right last time as I did see some snow...again I can quibble about the amounts, but the jist of it was there for days.
Stormsfury
Member
Yeah dsaur. Definitely could establish how this pattern may play out with the future s/w's
dsaur
Member
Yeah, Storm, that's one thing I learned from Robert. Try to see the overall pattern, and cull out what looks like it could really happen, and start from there, lol. If cold air is in N. Ga. and water is in south Ga. It's possible they'll find a way to meet up, as opposed to say, if the cold air was in the lakes and the water was in the gulf, lol Just need to let this pattern percolate awhile, and something might pop up multiple times. The models were getting the overall possibilities, at least for my yard....doesn't mean all the parts will come together, but, heck, you can't win the lotto without buying tickets
This pattern is our ticket.Wrong guy. The guy you are talking about went by Toot ( Easternwx) and he died a year or so ago.
Uncle Nasty
Member
Ok, my bad. You are correct sir. Also, I hate hearing about the death of anyone. That's the first I've heard about it.
Uncle Nasty
Member
Ok folks I read the comments. I made a mistake when in actuality I was thinking of Eastern Weather as someone else pointed out. Yeah, Robert is one Helluva accurate met and I always used to read his stuff. Sorry I stepped on toes. I was simply remembering incorrectly. Carry on!
NAM pumping so moisture further North?
3k NAM close call for Larry, interesting along SC coast and even SE coast of NC. I'd be willing to bet the precip is a touch more NW at verification. Cold air in place any glaze would cause huge issues down there
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Actually Larry special and if the NAM verifies that's major for those areas
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Dang if somehow Charleston ended up with a quarter inch, that would be pretty bad.Actually Larry special and if the NAM verifies that's major for those areas
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I'm not dismissing that's for sure, just yesterday morning precip came in further NW then modeled, happens all too often
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NAM for sure just notched the precip further North on the latest run. Wonder how much further it goes North..
Stormsfury
Member
Yeah, Charleston hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory for the event later. Temperatures overnight ran a tad warmer but since, temperatures continue to hold steady or slowly fall. 38° continues with a TD 26° or 27°. Winds aren't particularly strong. Right now, seems like 0.1" ZR is the general call. Noticed the 3km and 12k NAM are fairly bullish on a further reach inland... due to likely sharpening the coastal trough, in which sometimes it does too aggressively in the past.
Footnote: the NAM was upgraded early this year.
Footnote: the NAM was upgraded early this year.
Plenty of moisture lurking down south, sharpen up the coastal trough as stormsfury pointed out, get any southerly component to Winds aloft and I could see the NAM solution. Give the HRRR a few hours and see what it shows, did decent again with yesterday's system but really only credible imo within 10 hrs
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HRRR not looking horrible if you're looking for ZR on the coast/s ga. Watch that guys, it could be a surprise.
It tries to get showers back into my county, west of CAE.
EDIT: well, nvm. something is wonky with my model data over here. I meant the 3KM NAM, not the HRRR
It tries to get showers back into my county, west of CAE.
EDIT: well, nvm. something is wonky with my model data over here. I meant the 3KM NAM, not the HRRR
Kind of surprised Charleston is under a Winter Weather Advisory considering their forecast low is 33 and high tomorrow is 46 ! Also, they are only forecast to get a trace to a few hundredths of an inch.