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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

00z NAM still keeps SAV and CHS with generally under a .10". QPF crept a littlr further inland on the coastal counties this run
 
GaWx said:
0Z GFS vs 18Z GFS slight westward shift of precip, esp in S GA. Also, 0.25", though still offshore, is a bit closer to SAV/CHS.
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Lol, when you've got cold air above and precip moving below, it's not over until it's over. I'm going to be real interested in how this looks in actuality, after all the moving parts find a chair to sit in. T
Edit: A lot of the models said I'd see sleet last night, and I did. Hard to refute that....we can quibble about amounts, lol. But the jist of it was like that for days....I'd see sleet. They were right last time as I did see some snow...again I can quibble about the amounts, but the jist of it was there for days.
 
Stormsfury said:
Yeah dsaur. Definitely could establish how this pattern may play out with the future s/w's
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Yeah, Storm, that's one thing I learned from Robert. Try to see the overall pattern, and cull out what looks like it could really happen, and start from there, lol. If cold air is in N. Ga. and water is in south Ga. It's possible they'll find a way to meet up, as opposed to say, if the cold air was in the lakes and the water was in the gulf, lol Just need to let this pattern percolate awhile, and something might pop up multiple times. The models were getting the overall possibilities, at least for my yard....doesn't mean all the parts will come together, but, heck, you can't win the lotto without buying tickets :) This pattern is our ticket.
 
Uncle Nasty said:
If I'm not mistaken WxSouth is that clown that had a Tennessee Weather forum that is no longer active. He lives around Morristown and would argue and curse people out if the didn't agree with him. I think he's just a general contractor/handyman that likes weather as a hobby. I might be wrong but I'm 99.9% sure that's him. He used to post on other board and TennesseeWeather forum but he keeps getting banned from all the forums.
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Wrong guy. The guy you are talking about went by Toot ( Easternwx) and he died a year or so ago.
 
Ok folks I read the comments. I made a mistake when in actuality I was thinking of Eastern Weather as someone else pointed out. Yeah, Robert is one Helluva accurate met and I always used to read his stuff. Sorry I stepped on toes. I was simply remembering incorrectly. Carry on!
 
3k NAM close call for Larry, interesting along SC coast and even SE coast of NC. I'd be willing to bet the precip is a touch more NW at verification. Cold air in place any glaze would cause huge issues down there
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metwannabe said:
I'm not dismissing that's for sure, just yesterday morning precip came in further NW then modeled, happens all too often

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NAM for sure just notched the precip further North on the latest run. Wonder how much further it goes North..
 
Yeah, Charleston hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory for the event later. Temperatures overnight ran a tad warmer but since, temperatures continue to hold steady or slowly fall. 38° continues with a TD 26° or 27°. Winds aren't particularly strong. Right now, seems like 0.1" ZR is the general call. Noticed the 3km and 12k NAM are fairly bullish on a further reach inland... due to likely sharpening the coastal trough, in which sometimes it does too aggressively in the past.

Footnote: the NAM was upgraded early this year.
 
Plenty of moisture lurking down south, sharpen up the coastal trough as stormsfury pointed out, get any southerly component to Winds aloft and I could see the NAM solution. Give the HRRR a few hours and see what it shows, did decent again with yesterday's system but really only credible imo within 10 hrs

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HRRR not looking horrible if you're looking for ZR on the coast/s ga. Watch that guys, it could be a surprise.

It tries to get showers back into my county, west of CAE.


EDIT: well, nvm. something is wonky with my model data over here. I meant the 3KM NAM, not the HRRR
 
Kind of surprised Charleston is under a Winter Weather Advisory considering their forecast low is 33 and high tomorrow is 46 ! Also, they are only forecast to get a trace to a few hundredths of an inch.
 
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