Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

[Webberweather53]

3 km NAM composite reflectivity near truncation. Again keep in mind some of this likely evaporating before reaching the ground on composite reflectivity but you get the idea of what the NAM is pushing here, patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain occasionally mixed w/ sleet from the Columbia & Fayetteville areas and points southeastward towards the coast.

 

[Mitch West]

3 km NAM composite reflectivity near truncation. Again keep in mind some of this likely evaporating before reaching the ground on composite reflectivity but you get the idea of what the NAM is pushing here, patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain occasionally mixed w/ sleet from the Columbia & Fayetteville areas and points southeastward towards the coast.
View attachment 2352

How exciting.

 

[Webberweather53]

How exciting.

This would probably be a decent conservative, middle of the road scenario to look forward to in the midlands at this point time w/ this storm on Thursday or Friday until there's at least more confidence either way for a bigger storm or nothing at all

 

[Mitch West]

And to go with that; the energy and 500mb is much better for New Years, in theory, than what we have for this potential system. You'd think if ICON was over doing the strength and consolidation of the wave, it would be overly amplified and tilt happy with New Years's wave that is much more robust.

I am still routing for the Icon, not because I want ZR, but because I want another model I can half-way trust. The GFS has been such a letdown, I literally only look at the GEFS for a good idea now.

It's pretty bad man. I'm starting to gradually learn, for atleast our area, not to get to excited even when you see something 100 hrs out. We are so due here in CAE... It's just going to be beyond disappointing if somehow we get through this week and a half with nothing but cold air to show for it..

 

[Mitch West]

This would probably be a decent conservative, middle of the road scenario to look forward to in the midlands at this point time w/ this storm on Thursday or Friday until there's at least more confidence either way for a bigger storm or nothing at all

Which makes sense. Maybe we can manage something.. Anything would be nice.

 

[Shawn]

Freezing rain is not a fun or nice event.

 

[Mitch West]

Freezing rain is not a fun or nice event.

Well that's your opinion. Like I've said multiple times before, I'll take anything.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Yeah I'm good on the freezing rain, anything more than a glaze, no thanks. I'll be fine being high and dry.

 

[Webberweather53]

I'm under a winter weather advisory tonight and early tomorrow in Fayetteville so I call that a win


Here's what I'm thinking for NC tonight & tomorrow, patchy areas of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain, possibly mixed w/ light rain, sleet, or snow will be primarily confined to the coastal plain. You hit the jackpot with this storm if you get any snow/sleet, much less accumulation.

 

[accu35]

 

[Shawn]

Also, the EPS absolutely sucks for precipitation getting to CAE for the Wintry threat. The majority of the mean is from tonight/tomorrow's first wave. I don't really see any member getting anything appreciable to CAE on wave #2.

 

[Shawn]

The next frame squashes it.

 

[Shawn]

Flow trying to become a little bet better at 500mb for this wave #2 scenario on GFS so far, but I don't think the wave is going to be strong enough.

 

[Webberweather53]

18z German model, while still wetter than other guidance, is significantly drier than previous runs. Still would be a wintry event, and this may be the middle ground, or could be a trend towards nothing. 00z model runs will be very telling. We are definitely in the 4th quarter and it's getting down to the 2:00 mark, by 12z runs tomorrow I think we will know if this is still a threat or not.

18z:

12z:

We may be indeed headed for a middle ground, definitely curious to see what the 0z suite looks like tonight. Still feel good enough in areas like Columbia & Fayetteville NC and points southeastward that something will probably fall (whether that's just a few areas of isolated freezing drizzle or moderate freezing rain/sleet mixed w/ snow). Northwest of these areas towards RDU, Charlotte, & Greenville-Spartanburg, something dramatic will need to happen over the next few days to bring them any appreciable precipitation

 

[POWERSTROKE]

We done until Feb if lucky. La Nina we will get nothing

 

[Meteorologist1999]

18Z Gfs Suppression!! Wow might be no need to wait for the 00z Models!!

 

[Shawn]

Yeah, ICON letting go. Dropped almost a quarter inch of precip for CAE on the 18z run. Nothing in the Upstate. This event, unless a substantial change at 00z, is over.

Edit: Outside the coast/Southern GA/SC.

 

[Nam0806]

Unfortunately, the trends over the last few days have been unkind to those looking for wintry precipitation in the southeast. It looks like this event (if there is one), won't amount to much of anything.

 

[Mitch West]

Yeh this thread is dead. We tried, might catch a flurry tomorrow morning...

Lol jk .. like that would happen. We live in the arm pit of hell. No snow here.

 

[Shawn]

Yeh this thread is dead. We tried, might catch a flurry tomorrow morning...

Lol jk .. like that would happen. We live in the arm pit of hell. No snow here.

It'd be sleet for this area tomorrow from wave #1 at best.

Anyways, I bid this thread farewell! (for now)