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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

BHS1975 said:
Is that the highest resolution? How much does the ICON have?


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Yes the Swiss model's resolution is 9x that of our best and highest resolution 3 km HRRR (in the x-y plane you can fit 9 1km grid boxes into one 3km grid box). The German model's resolution is 13km (about an eighth of a degree) which is 4x higher than the GFS and slightly lower than the full resolution version of the ECMWF (9 km)
 
1300m said:
Euro at H5 also looked a little better. We need just a little bit more of this trend. As Webber posted earlier, if we can just get winds aloft to tap that moist air to our south it will set off significant overrunning and precipitation will blossom nicely. As bad as it looks with precipitation, it could go from zero to something much bigger with only another tick or two in the same direction at H5.

00Z:
00_Z.png


12z:
12_Z.png
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Yeah no doubt the Euro is digging this trough over the upper midwest more, if we can do this for a few more runs, it should help veer the mid-level flow from WNW to W-WSWly at least long enough to tap into the eastern pacific moisture...

ecmwf_z500_dt_noram_11.png
 
SimeonNC said:
There is one big concern, if a solution like the ICON/Swiss models ends up playing out. We're getting to the point where there would be little to no warning of that happening, multiple cities in GA and the Carolinas would have their own snow/icejams.
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Possibly. Good thing in the KCHS area, it's already being heavily montiored due to that this region is in the battlezone between some precip or possibly more already. It's places around that could be caught offguard badly now that the guard has been let down if all of the sudden, the rest of the outputs start trending towards the ICON/Swiss grids
 
BHS1975 said:
But if we get too much of a southern component wouldn’t that create a warm nose?
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Always a fine balance. That's why sig SE winterstoms are not too common. Too westerly = often too dry. Too much southerly component (SW) may mean too warm/too far NW of a track. That's why WSW if often the ticket.
 
Looks like the wave looks better on all modeling. Baby steps. The Canadian didn't look as good as others, but it was still a slight improvement.
 
The 00z cycle might possibly have a better sampling of the wave in question but probably now the most important cycle coming up whether it's game on for a wider portion of the Carolinas, GA or not
 
Stormsfury said:
The 00z cycle might possibly have a better sampling of the wave in question but probably now the most important cycle coming up whether it's game on for a wider portion of the Carolinas, GA or not
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It's hard for me to believe the 9KM Euro is totally off with it's solution, versus something like the Swiss or German modeling, but again, this is a great test for those two models.

Icon, at least, gets Wintry weather all the way back into ATL.
 
the 12Z EPS is pretty similar to the 0Z EPS/12Z Euro with only light qpf near the SE coast and hardly anything well inland. The H5 flow is still too westerly for great prospects.

Edit: To clarify, the qpf I'm referring to is only for the 12/28-9 wave.
 
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GaWx said:
Always a fine balance. That's why sig SE winterstoms are not too common. Too westerly = often too dry. Too much southerly component (SW) may mean too warm/too far NW of a track. That's why WSW if often the ticket.
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Yup, it's why we see so much cold rain, lol. So many little things need to tie together with timing. It's why stuff sneaks up so often. T
 
GaWx said:
the 12Z EPS is pretty similar to the 0Z EPS/12Z Euro with only light qpf near the SE coast and hardly anything well inland. The H5 flow is still too westerly for great prospects.
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The EPS actually took a step in the right direction and shifted the precipitation northwestward for both the 27th & 28-29th events vs the 0z suite, it's the first NW shift we've seen from the EPS in at least several days. Baby steps...
output_5nBq8L.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS actually took a step in the right direction and shifted the precipitation northwestward for both the 27th & 28-29th events vs the 0z suite, it's the first NW shift we've seen from the EPS in at least several days. Baby steps...
View attachment 2344
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Yeah, I did see a small tick NW. To clarify, the qpf I'm referring to is only for the 12/28-9 wave. The 12Z EPS qpf for this wave is still under 0.05" more than about 50 miles inland of the Carolina coasts vs you showing both waves combined.
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, I did see a small tick NW. To clarify, the qpf I'm referring to is only for the 12/28-9 wave. The 12Z EPS qpf for this wave is still under 0.05" more than about 50 miles inland of the Carolina coasts vs you showing both waves combined.
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Well at least for now it is...
 
While we don't have grids for Central SC or ATL for the Swiss model; I'd wager a bet it's not as snowy as the upstate of SC into NC. It's likely IP/Snow mix before going over the ZR for some.
 
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