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Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

I'm so confused, some people saying there is no CAD, we have others saying there is. I'm in Florence, SC and I don't know what to expect.

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1300m said:
CAD may look weaker in GA because there's actually precipitation this run lol.

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Very good point, the cat does the dirty work before the actual precipitation, if there is any. LOL
 
Well I am preparing for winter weather in Lavonia regardless of what these cray cray models say. A few years ago the radio met was saying we dodged a bullet as ice was starting to form and end result looked like a war zone❄️
 
carolinachaos said:
I'm so confused, some people saying there is no CAD, we have others saying there is. I'm in Florence, SC and I don't know what to expect.

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Disregard my post, I saw someone say it on the other board and checked the NAM and it appeared that way.
 
deltadog03 said:
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IF this (near 0.50" ZR) were to be close to verifying, I want to check one other event to make sure but I do believe this would be the worst widespread ZR for upper coastal counties of GA to far S SC since Jan of 1922. It almost certainly would be worst for right in the city of SAV since then and by what I think would be some margin. So, a truly historic (96 years) hit is a real possibility there. It is crucial that ZR amounts don't rise above here because that's when the damage and outages would rapidly increase. The JMA and ICON qpf's would cause massive damage. Hopefully they're both overdoing their 1.25" (which would be near the severe hit of 1922) as often is the case with the JMA. As it is at this near 1/2" level, it would already cause quite a number of problems for sure, including many outages and slippery driving/walking in certain areas, especially if it gets down to 30. We've got numerous very large oaks in and near the city that would be a big concern with just the 0.50" of ZR.

The comparison to the surface wx maps of the massive Jan 1922 ZR is eerily similar.

Keeping in mind the Irma hit, there have been other instances of a big tropical hit in the area followed by a sig wintry hit somewhere within the CHS-SAV corridor the following winter: 1894/1895, 1898/1899, 1989, 1979/1980 come to mind.
 
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if I'm seeing that dew point map correctly it shows dew point of 5 in col umbia seems like we would loose most of the moisture. am I correct lol?
 
GFS = suppression depression. This ones on life support, and we're about to have a power failure! :(
 
GaWx said:
IF this (near 0.50" ZR) were to be close to verifying, I want to check one other event to make sure but I do believe this would be the worst widespread ZR for upper coastal counties of GA to far S SC since Jan of 1922. It almost certainly would be worst for right in the city of SAV since then and by what I think would be some margin. So, a truly historic (96 years) hit is a real possibility there. It is crucial that ZR amounts don't rise above here because that's when the damage and outages would rapidly increase. The JMA and ICON qpf's would cause massive damage. Hopefully they're both overdoing their 1.25" (which would be near the severe hit of 1922) as often is the case with the JMA. As it is at this near 1/2" level, it would already cause quite a number of problems for sure, including many outages and slippery driving/walking in certain areas, especially if it gets down to 30. We've got numerous very large oaks in and near the city that would be a big concern with just the 0.50" of ZR.

The comparison to the surface wx maps of the massive Jan 1922 ZR is eerily similar.

Keeping in mind the Irma hit, there have been other instances of a big tropical hit in the area followed by a sig wintry hit somewhere within the CHS-SAV corridor the following winter: 1894/1895, 1898/1899, 1989, 1979/1980 come to mind.
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Ahh yes the infamous January 1922 knickerbocker storm, which led to the collapse of the Knickerbocker theatre in Washington DC due to the weight of the snow and dropped about 24-36" of snow in Roxboro, Oxford, & Henderson, NC gave you an insane ice storm. Very interesting to learn there were several sides to this insane storm and that the general setup is potentially similar to that. This doesn't mean by any stretch of the imagination the sensible impacts here in NC will be similar but interesting nonetheless...
 
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