LithiaWx
Member
Trends seem neutral or slightly better for ATL. I believe ATL will still likely cash in on at least some wintery precip.
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Trends seem neutral or slightly better for ATL. I believe ATL will still likely cash in on at least some wintery precip.
Thanks for that, I was just going by last night.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, I completely agree. It certainly never hurts to have another legitimate opinion on hand...
SimeonNC
Member
So every model so far except for the CMC seems to be improving.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GEFS definitely didn't improve vs the 6z suite, much drier but still a solid amount of precipitation. We can still do quite a bit of damage w/ 0.2-0.4" QPF
I agree if y'all cold enough for snow that could be some nice ratios
Like looked like the case yesterday at 12Z, today's 12Z consensus is back to increasing the chance for an extremely rare significant ZR threat even way down here. Now that the potential start is only 3 days out, it is time to start thinking of this as a real and growing threat here. This threat is made all the more significant because, as hard as it may be to believe, there hasn't been a significant ZR hit (say 0.40"+ and probably even less) right in the city since the severe ZR of Jan of 1922!
As a guideline for here when there have been many hours of NE or NNE winds coming down far E SC down into SAV with wedges, which is being modeled, the city itself is usually no more than 2 F warmer and often is only 1 F warmer than CHS if both are getting significant precip. That is because the typical wedge induced NE to NNE surface winds do NOT cross the nearby ocean thus not allowing for modification. So, if I were to know CHS were to be 30 or even 31, I'd be thinking most likely 32 or 31 here.
Looking at the Jan 25-7 1922 old daily wx maps, the surface features being forecasted for 12/28-9 are eerily VERY similar with a very cold 1045ish MW high that then moves into the NE at 1043ish along with an unusually strong 1029 wedge signature all of the way down here. At the end of the storm, a weak low forms E of FL and takes a path ~250 miles SE of here.
The last 2 NAM runs and the CMC have it near 32 here. The GFS, which is very likely several degrees too warm, even has it down to near 35.
As a guideline for here when there have been many hours of NE or NNE winds coming down far E SC down into SAV with wedges, which is being modeled, the city itself is usually no more than 2 F warmer and often is only 1 F warmer than CHS if both are getting significant precip. That is because the typical wedge induced NE to NNE surface winds do NOT cross the nearby ocean thus not allowing for modification. So, if I were to know CHS were to be 30 or even 31, I'd be thinking most likely 32 or 31 here.
Looking at the Jan 25-7 1922 old daily wx maps, the surface features being forecasted for 12/28-9 are eerily VERY similar with a very cold 1045ish MW high that then moves into the NE at 1043ish along with an unusually strong 1029 wedge signature all of the way down here. At the end of the storm, a weak low forms E of FL and takes a path ~250 miles SE of here.
The last 2 NAM runs and the CMC have it near 32 here. The GFS, which is very likely several degrees too warm, even has it down to near 35.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, verbatim that still should come out to be about 4"-6" of snow here in Fayetteville with ratios around 15-20:1 and given how suppressed the storm is.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is a different look:
Yep it is lol they're definitely less impressive overall but you can probably increase the totals north of the midlands by 50% or double them because 10:1 ratios probably won't happen here if only snow is reaching the ground.
Clem282340
Member
So you are saying that the snow totals will double up here in the upstate of sc
I believe one thing we have on our side is that whatever does fall, hopefully snow, won't have to much of a hard time sticking due to the amount of cold air entrenched. Will have nice ratios i imagine even here in the midlands.
This could be a rare central GA and North parts of South GA into SC including sav and chs. Lighter in NGA to GSP and up to RDU ( but colder air and higher ratios)
Stormsfury
Member
That heavy blip south of AL in the GOM. Heavy convection?
.25" of qpf could be 3-4" of snow (if all snow that is)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
yes, that's assuming the current low track holds, if it trends too far NW and you start having to deal w/ more IP then that'll be a problem and you can take what I just said and toss it out the window
And to go with webber's post about more NW; you'd likely have a lot more moisture to work with. 12z Euro will be interesting; I am waiting for the UKMET precip panels to see if they have improved.
Clem282340
Member
Okay thanks so you saying we could be getting around 3-4 inches of snow or it could be more than that if it stays on the same track
This is a different look:
After taking into account that that is mainly ZR in much of SC and GA, that is likely underdone in SE GA and SE SC because it very likely has the 32 line too far NW. See the 12Z NAM and CMC and you will see a colder surface on the southern edge of the wedge.
W
WeatherLC
Guest
So no chance of ice for n ga now?