Stormsfury
Member
Yeah, the GFS is pretty significant down this way like everything else has been. My region will be iced over or bone dry cold, no in between solutions this time. A rare issue but plenty of cold air is solidly there
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Yeah, the GFS is pretty significant down this way like everything else has been. My region will be iced over or bone dry cold, no in between solutions this time. A rare issue but plenty of cold air is solidly there
SimeonNC
Member
Yeah, the German model had me in the upper teens the entire time it was snowing. That would be insane for this part of the country.
Stormsfury
Member
Yeah I mean just subtle differences lead to drastically different outcomes. Basically all these OP runs are just basically an ensemble of OP runs which of come up with what they are programmed to do with their specific parameters and leads to varying solutions
Stormsfury
Member
Prelims was flat like the CMC
Well no bueno
SimeonNC
Member
Sorry if this is bant but this might be one of the most frustrating storms to track ever.
Still, I wonder what the Ensembles will have, along with the Euro. If The UK whiffs and Euro brings back the precip then we might be in for a long few days.
Still, I wonder what the Ensembles will have, along with the Euro. If The UK whiffs and Euro brings back the precip then we might be in for a long few days.
The 12z Ukmet is not out yet.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Although it's less popular, here's another reminder the German model (DWD-ICON) is probably a legitimate NWP model, it uses the same slow physics parameterizations as the ECMWF. Excerpt taken from Zangl et al (2014). This doesn't necessarily make its current solution more or less legitimate, but it should probably be given due consideration in subsequent winter storms...
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2378/abstract
Here are a few other excerpts from the 15th Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems via ECMWF.
https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default...stem-dwd-based-icon-icone-eu-and-cosmo-de.pdf
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2378/abstract
Here are a few other excerpts from the 15th Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems via ECMWF.
https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default...stem-dwd-based-icon-icone-eu-and-cosmo-de.pdf
I think it is out for Stormvista (not sure), and was likely looked at by Grit or someone on the other board.
Well Eric; I can say the German model had close to 2 inches of qpf here until yesterday, and dramatically altered it's idea. (this was both waves, btw). It's now around 0.25 - 0.3 which is an increase from 00z; but much more tame and realistic.
From what y'all have posted before on it it seems pretty good
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah it's pretty good, just as, if not more legitimate than the GFS & CMC, however I've only seen it handle a few winter storms, thus I'm not aware quite yet of its biases in storms like this but it did very well with the event earlier this month. Even if it busts here I think it should be given regular use & scrutiny...
UKMET does indeed look like or worse than the 00z that was basically a wiff.
so does TWC only follow gfs to the death?! lol
GeorgiaGirl
Member
So which way does the Euro follow next up? The ukie or the icon?
Usually the UKMET is the best indicator, as last night.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
UKMET does indeed look like or worse than the 00z that was basically a wiff.
This was what the UKMET showed for the same time yesterday on its 12z run, this run is actually a big improvement if anything, the wave is much slower today by a country mile...
Stormsfury
Member
I know it handled several events well in the previous winter and did well with a couple of wedge events since it has been in operation, so I definitely have to give it some credence.
Also will be a decent case on how things play out locally around my region. Great test run so to speak