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Pattern December 2023

Looking through the prism of my Back yard location and into the crystal ball long range using the 6z GFS Op and 0z CFS. The highlights are we never get 2m temps other than about normal. Swings +2 to -2 range. The exception on GFS Op, its warmest is Christmas eve-Dec 27th. CFS starts getting us to where we want to go 12/26ish onward throughout its run.

The GFS OP shows it raining for like 36-40 hours straight here next weekend (sun-mon). We got roughly 3 inches from this weekend, so the drought has officially been put out to pasture here.
 
Went to bed at 1130 and looked out before I did. It was down to 34 but still rain. Cold delivered on time though. The Mountains to my immediate south did get some now that I can see them.
 
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When the big GOAK trough shuffles back to the Aleutians and we raise heights in AK, that’s when I’m sure winter storm prospects will appear. Just gotta wait, gotta have patience, we’re following a typical strong Nino progression, there not known for being good early on 343D1310-DD69-43B4-9832-9ADF66CEB684.pngE2FF0AE9-50E9-4341-BDA3-E7025B1EAB2F.png00B28163-803F-45AA-8EAB-ED7034B03B15.png
 
When the big GOAK trough shuffles back to the Aleutians and we raise heights in AK, that’s when I’m sure winter storm prospects will appear. Just gotta wait, gotta have patience, we’re following a typical strong Nino progression, there not known for being good early on View attachment 138512View attachment 138513View attachment 138511
Even though it was a La Niña, It’s very similar to December 2021 when things were so warm especially the last 10 days of the month… I don’t think Charlotte fell below 60 for four or five days leading into New Year’s. However, you could see the signs fairly evident that a good pattern was coming.
 
Little tweaking and we can sneak some fun in between next Sun-Tues. Euro is a little to far off coast and both need some HP help, better timing. The canadian is the quickest with the storm ( starts up Sunday ) and looks like it has some misfit ULL energy trying to get involved. Long shot but it's something to watch. Ill give it a 5% chance for NC right now.

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