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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Woah, low track is much further east. Western side of wake never flips on this run
12z
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_18.png

18z
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_17.png
 
MSnowAtl said:
What apart of GA? Including metro Atlanta?
Click to expand...

No

Check that. It’s a much better run for Atlanta and probably because temps are getting more favorable. As much as I want to stop obsessing over this, the 18z has reeled me back in. If the GFS is underestimating the cold, we might indeed have a December Surprise on our hands.


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I don’t see blizzard criteria being met maybe that’s just me...
 
This is the first respectable/non nail-biting sounding I've seen for Raleigh yet:
notbad.png
 
North Johnston County here.... Looks like the battleground is going to be right on top of my house with that run. I'm wishing that it would creep a little more southeast somehow.
 
Dallas AFD, so close

Most of the model
guidance keeps temperatures just above freezing in our
northwestern counties, except most notably, the NAM. Global
guidance tends to underdo cold air advection in the case of
shallow Arctic airmasses such as this, so trended a little cool
compared to global models, but went warmer than the NAM. These
surface temperatures may be cold enough that when combined with
saturated profiles up to the -10 C isothermal level (i.e. the
dendritic growth zone) and dynamic cooling attendant with the
approaching mid-tropospheric trough that a wintry mix may be
possible northwest of a Breckenridge to Gainesville line. This
would likely begin initially as some light freezing rain, and
transition to snow quickly as the aforementioned dynamic cooling
takes place. It should be stressed however that at present time,
ground temperatures will almost certainly be too warm for any
appreciable accumulations, but interests in areas north and west
of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area should continue to
monitor.
 
Other frames should come. Data source is running fine it looks like so far. Could change, I guess.

weee.PNG
 
DE3CC01C-311C-4451-82D8-E5221B16AFC4.png Wow! Think this is from Ukie, but 6-10” of snow, then 1”+ of ice accretion, that would be devastating! Jimmy?
 
Shawn said:
Other frames should come. Data source is running fine it looks like so far. Could change, I guess.

View attachment 8530
Click to expand...

First place I went after the hang up at 108, status will not flag until the F0-240 products are delayed by >15 minutes. Currently about 5 minutes late based on average completion. Maybe convective feedback, grid parameterization issues off the SE coast on a global model, one can only hope and obviously I am joking.
 
034B97E2-7742-470C-8D3F-1248EF4993AA.png His own statement , doesn’t even match his own map behind him! Give us B Rad P!
 
Models do seem to be showing a longer period of snow for RDU, lasting well into Sunday afternoon instead of Sunday night.
 
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