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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

DarkKnight said:
@Storm5 or anyone. What I have circled is the upper level low correct??? That’s is what we want on the back end of the system to come thru to give us a chance of snow?? Correct?? Trying to learn to read the upper level maps.

View attachment 8518 View attachment 8519
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No, that is the closed low at 700mb, as mentioned above the ULL that is talked about forms as the energy in the upper Midwest dives into the southern stream. You can best see it on the 500mb chart.
 
SD said:
Wetbulb of 27 means lots of issues. Hard to recover from 27 to 32

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What does Wetbulb mean and what is its significance to the forecast? Is it similar to dewpoint? Sorry for the very basic questions
 
NAM closes off the 500mb low very early at hour 75.

namconus_z500_vort_us_50.png


This doesn't seem to be the case of any other model run...perhaps a case of the NAM being overamped as usual.

EDIT: And keep in mind, this is upper energy associated with the main system, not the trailing energy.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Isnt 31-32 kinda marginal for freezing rain ? I imagine roads would be fine with those kinda temps.
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Problems on elevated surfaces/trees/powerlines/bridges.

The marginal term gets thrown around with temps in the 31-32 range because as rain hits the surface and turns into ice, it causes latent heating which will generally, under heavier rates, warm the surface above freezing.
 
J.C. said:
31F is plenty cold enough to cause problems with trees, powerlines, and bridges. Roads would generally be ok, and it would depend on precip rates.
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Not really, thirty one degrees may provide icing in very light precip, but in this setup with heavier precip moving in and 850s torching, precip pulling down warmer air and latent heat release will make it just a miserable rain. Needs to be several degrees colder to see ice there.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
NAM closes off the 500mb low very early at hour 75.

namconus_z500_vort_us_50.png


This doesn't seem to be the case of any other model run...perhaps a case of the NAM being overamped as usual.

EDIT: And keep in mind, this is upper energy associated with the main system, not the trailing energy.
Click to expand...

Yeah it was close to doing that at 12z as well . Probably overdoing it like it normally does at this range . As you said no other model tries to do it


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Jessy89 said:
Chris justice 3-6 north of 85
Kendra Kent up to 2 inches

Wow what a difference in forecast lol
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You think that's bad? I saw this on AmWx:

GSP
The low subsequently will move across the Southeast
Coastal Plain in a Miller A-type configuration.

RAL
The low tracks along the Gulf coast/S GA/FL Panhandle, likely evolving into
a Miller B configuration.
 
BlueRidgeFolklore said:
You think that's bad? I saw this on AmWx:

GSP
The low subsequently will move across the Southeast
Coastal Plain in a Miller A-type configuration.

RAL
The low tracks along the Gulf coast/S GA/FL Panhandle, likely evolving into
a Miller B configuration.
Click to expand...

Lol that’s funny but bad at the same time. Unbelievable how off national Weather Service can be off from one another
 
Really lame that models have been showing the backside moisture through SC, but even that is to warm.. BACKSIDE MOISTURE BUT TO WARM.

Thanks
 
This guy on Fake Book!!
47487803_2180363565329700_404712122602225664_n.jpg
I am growing more concerned for areas in Western NC, because the model data continues to paint widespread 15-25” amounts across there. This storm will be a two-part system and one that will most likely bring crippling snowfall to many areas from Interstate 85 and to the north. I even think that South Raleigh may get some snow out of this setup.

Some areas will likely get 20"+ of snowfall from this system. This will be a long-duration storm for many areas and lasting nearly 48 hours. Winds are expected in the 15-25mph range and some gusts could reach 50mph at times. This is a borderline "Blizzard" for Western NC. There will be some areas that mix with or change to sleet and freezing rain as well. Please get prepared for this storm now!
 
Interesting trend with 850s for nc for sure, it still the gfs but something to watch
 

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