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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

I could see up to 8” tomorrow in the mountains....over 4” east of the mountains. Placement is unclear but I sort of like the Statesville area. Even further north 2-4” could occur overnight through 10am Monday into Wilkes/Surry.
 
RollTide18 said:
Trying not to get sucked back in for disappointment

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png
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Wouldn’t everything north of 540 line be snow?
 
Yeah that feb 2014 definetly overperformed for us, got 3 inches from it, this time looks like the same things are happening, guidance is picking up on it more and more, hopefully it can occur a little into daylight for slight diurnal heating allowing for more convective snow like last time
 
Big gust here. Had 5” of snow but now about 2” of slop is left from all the cold rain. Here’s the wind chart for the gust that just hit. Came out of nowhere and you can see it pretty clearly.
147F5CD8-33BC-4380-BF92-4D4011A95B90.png
 
Jessy89 said:
Wouldn’t everything north of 540 line be snow?
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No, I would never count on just the 540 thickness line to determine snowfall. The 540 line indicates rain/snow line 50% of the time, but not always. Of course, the lower the thickness value is, the colder it is. So, if the thickness value was like 534, the snow chance would increase.
 
Every time we get a wind gust here, the trees crackle/limbs snap, kinda worrying me a bit, we haven't had a ice event like this in a long time, it really just snuck up on us
 
WxWatch said:
No, I would never count on just the 540 thickness line to determine snowfall. The 540 line indicates rain/snow line 50% of the time, but not always. Of course, the lower the thickness value is, the colder it is. So, if the thickness value was like 534, the snow chance would increase.
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Thank you that was helpful
 
That ULL doesn't look that impressive on the models. But, I wouldn't be surprised if it dumped an additional 1-3" for the areas that did get the snowfall from the main low.
 
Rain Cold said:
I would really like to understand the synoptic scale condition that places our exact area on the dividing line 75% of the time. Why can’t the conditions of the storm, whatever they are, move the line 20 miles south. Ever?
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Horrendous luck. It really has been for your corner of Wake. Look at these near misses just to your SE over the past few winters. So it’s not just “climo”. The dam will bust soon and you will jack.

https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20110110/accum.20110110.gif

https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20140213/accum.20140211.gif

https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20180104.png
 
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