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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Ok I've had a long day y'all, too tired, lazy to read back through all these post. Where are with regard to slp track, hp strength, etc compared to modeling.

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metwannabe said:
Ok I've had a long day y'all, too tired, lazy to read back through all these post. Where are with regard to slp track, hp strength, etc compared to modeling.

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Essentially it’s as bad as you think. BUT we have the hrrrrap which has lots of snow at the end of its run. Last run was crap. This run was better. Next run, well, you know how it goes. BUT, the 0zs are going to save our bacon at the last minute!
 
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Flirting with 2" so far in Maggie Valley at 3150' in elevation.
 
It looks like the snow line etc coming down into N GA is actually being pushed back up on radar. Lol Temps in Lavonia and Toccoa came up a degree. Wth???
 
GaWx said:
I still think much of ATL proper, especially NE ATL, will have a decent shot at flirting with 32 with precip falling. The GFS still has Doraville getting down only to 37. That doesn't look right to me with 850's in the +2 to +4 range most of the storm along with good wedging. Something does not compute there assuming history is a good guide!

Wedging normally means colder at surface than at 850. With 850s near 37 F, the surface should be quite a bit colder.
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One of the local mets here just did a FB live and his forecast model showed overnight the 32F line reaches all the way to atlanta and west toward the AL line down I-20 mainly... said light glazing of ice may be possible and mixing of snow by morning. Very interesting. That same forecast model he had also had the early arrival of precip yesterday morning. Interesting to watch tonight.
 
I don’t see the rain snow line making it below 85 here. It’s struggling to flip even up here at I85. It’s stymied right now. I bet we are still rain when I wake up in the a.m.

This is not based on model analysis. This is based on life experience in this part of the world
 
Avalanche said:
Ive been away the past several hours. What's the latest scoop on the Triad/Triangle areas?
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Likely progressing as expected. Snow not likely to begin until between 1 and 3 am, may begin as rain. Mixing with sleet possible. Still thinking 1-3" or so of snow/sleet mix but most mets are much more aggressive.
 
MBell said:
One of the local mets here just did a FB live and his forecast model showed overnight the 32F line reaches all the way to atlanta and west toward the AL line down I-20 mainly... said light glazing of ice may be possible and mixing of snow by morning. Very interesting. That same forecast model he had also had the early arrival of precip yesterday morning. Interesting to watch tonight.
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Which met ?
 
metwannabe said:
Ok I've had a long day y'all, too tired, lazy to read back through all these post. Where are with regard to slp track, hp strength, etc compared to modeling.

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I don't think things are much different from this morning

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CyclonicFury said:
Likely progressing as expected. Snow not likely to begin until between 1 and 3 am, may begin as rain. Mixing with sleet possible. Still thinking 1-3" or so of snow/sleet mix but most mets are much more aggressive.
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One thing I noticed on my home page NBC, they took out the mention of snow and just said rain for tonight and tomorrow, so fear set in. LOL
 
34° DP 33 with a rain/ snow mix it's trying to changeover here in Northern upstate

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