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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

these temps in the mid 40s were always well predicted by models. HRRR clearly has many areas in the 43-45 range. Temps dive tonight with arrival of heavy precip. That was always the forecast
And yet for some reason the NWS only forecast 41 in Charlotte. Why? Its up to 46 in Charlotte now. A whopping 5 degrees warmer than forecast with about 2 hours of heating left in the day.
 
I’m south of 85 in the upstate and my temp is 5 degrees cooler than Charlotte atm
 
I am growing concerned the counties north of Raleigh along the state line could see something special. 2-3” rates during the height of the storm. Into Virginia as well. Potential for thunder snow and blizzard like conditions too as deform band moves through that area. Could be a sneaky surprise I overlooked way east of the mountains.
 
Latest FV3

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Even tho the fv3 is probably to snowy, which can still happen, it's a model you can trust except it's snow maps on tt
 
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