Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[scroback]

Can it snow with upper level and mid level temps at 1-2 degrees C or does it have to be 0

It's more complicated than just temperature. Completely depends on how deep that 1-2C layer is...how dry it is, what kind of precip rates you are getting, etc. If the precip is heavy, and advections are absent, then yeah, that would probably cool that layer to 0C and it would snow. This case is a little more dynamic though

 

[LovingGulfLows]

1 hour ago check the first image.

Yeah, this is definitely JB's account. You can see the blue check next to his name. His tweet is a little difficult to understand though.

 

[scroback]

Insane 1-3” possibly 4 INCHES of sleet could occur from Winston to Asheville. Per latest modeling. All snow confined to north-west NC.

Yeah, looking like upstate SC and the SW NC mountains are going to get rocked by sleet

 

[Stormdoc]

FWIW now the GFS jackpots the Triangle now with the most snow

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Yeah, this is definitely JB's account. You can see the blue check next to his name. His tweet is a little difficult to understand though.

Yeah I thought he was saying that Joe B said it was a big bust for foothills and mtns. I know Joe is smarter then that.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Nobody’s going to like the new HRRr very much.

Looks the same. The 12z has the same depiction of the mix line right before it flips to all snow and the line sinks south

 

[DadOfJax]

Insane 1-3” possibly 4 INCHES of sleet could occur from Winston to Asheville. Per latest modeling. All snow confined to north-west NC.

Not the case at all....snowing west of Asheville in Maggie Valley now.

 

[Jessy89]

It's more complicated than just temperature. Completely depends on how deep that 1-2C layer is...how dry it is, what kind of precip rates you are getting, etc. If the precip is heavy, and advections are absent, then yeah, that would probably cool that layer to 0C and it would snow. This case is a little more dynamic though

Thanks for that explanation

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I am changing my forecast. Huge error potential for southern, central foothills and mountains of NC. Up to 8” in the mtns and 3-6” down below. If that. Sharp increase further north still 12-24” for Boone to Mount Airy.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Nobody’s going to like the new HRRr very much.

Looks good to me! Its sleet storm or bust for fringe areas at this point. May be a sleet storm as well for some of those who think they’re getting 10”. It’s a very fluid situation

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Rgem had a better thump of snow here, up to 8 inches in my yard

 

[Round Oak Weather]

Could it overproducing in Texas translate to the southeast?

 

[LovingGulfLows]

That ULL in Texas is great. Still going strong from last night. Wish that would happen in GA.

 

[Brick Tamland]

This is when the short range models start going back and forth with the warm nose and cold air push. Happens every time.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Not the case at all....snowing west of Asheville in Maggie Valley now.

You still get the intial thump but you will be sourly disappointed by Sunday evening. 75% confident of this icy mix scenario.

 

[drfranklin]

This storm is going to bust for a lot of people. I’m just hoping the ground is white in upstate sc. even just one inch I’ll call it a win. And move on to the next storm

Jessy, you may be correct; however, have patience - I believe some in Upstate SC with get a winter wonderland overnight - it's Nowcast time and I refuse to look at anymore modeling - remember it's only December 8th - we have all of Jan/Feb - I'm expecting a board-wide event at least once this winter - I'm a Birmingham native and want storm/my AL peeps/everyone to participate

 

[Jessy89]

Jessy, you may be correct; however, have patience - I believe some in Upstate SC with get a winter wonderland overnight - it's Nowcast time and I refuse to look at anymore modeling - remember it's only December 8th - we have all of Jan/Feb - I'm expecting a board-wide event at least once this winter - I'm a Birmingham native and want storm/my AL peeps/everyone to participate

Yes I agree with you. All we need is a similar set up in mid January. And everyone will win

 

[Brick Tamland]

Saw on the other board the NAM is running too warm compared to actual temps.

 

[upstatescwx]

Sleet falling in nothern greenville sc atm


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[LovingGulfLows]

Saw on the other board the NAM is running too warm compared to actual temps.

He was mainly talking surface temps and how it would affect NE GA. Don't think it will translate much in the mid levels especially if a stout warm nose appears.