Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[Jon]

Hmmm


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[Snowflowxxl]

All of that snow in NE Alabama is ice right?

I have a hard time Alabama will experience anything.

 

[RollTide18]

Yikes, you can stick a fork in the ULL for AL/GA, too dry, I’ll be in the December thread waiting for the next one.

 

[1300m]

And there you go, the NAM gets better. And matches up pretty much with the Euro and FV3.

I don't care how many vertical levels the NAM has, if it isn't handling the setup properly what's the point in looking at its warm noses? Also, in the January NC snowstorm this year, the 24 hour Euro basically nailed the snow distribution and outperformed the NAM and the other high resolution guidance. I certainly would never lean towards the NAM anything (profiles or pattern) when it isn't in agreement synoptically with the Euro and EPS first.

 

[Ilovesnow28]

I have a hard time Alabama will experience anything.

Yeah so far just a chilly miserable cold rain for us Alabama folks as usual

 

[Snowflowxxl]

NAM and CMC nailed the December storm last year, while the GFS and especially Euro whiffed like crazy. Every dog has his day!

 

[Metwannabe]

Not bad

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[1300m]

NAM and CMC nailed the December storm last year, while the GFS and especially Euro whiffed like crazy. Every dog has his day!

Yes, and you have to know when to walk which dog

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Lol at what the NAM is doing with the secondary wave late Monday/early Tuesday. If it started just a little sooner, maybe it could lay down a little snow for me.

 

[Stormdoc]

Hmmm

Hey, that would even put Rain Cold into the good stuff!
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, the

 

[Stormdoc]

Hey that would even put Rain Cold in the good stuff!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Surprised the hrrr is showing snow that far south when it's normally warm biased with CADs....

 

[ForsythSnow]

This will not verify...View attachment 8860

Probably mostly sleet and zr in there. Also could be a little snow further north. I'll not be stupid enough to think it will verify but I'm not sure if it is too warm since 30 mph gusts are going to blast down here Saturday night. That'll speed up the air flow for sure.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The NAM has been showing a impressive CAD, maybe we can get a suprise with frozen. We will have to see. When does the WRF run?

 

[$alt]

Looks a bit cleaner than the horrible TT map.



Kuchera:


10:1

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I'm really starting to think that when models show central NC flip to rain it's really more of a drizzle. I've seen countless times where you go from heavy snow to sleet and when the rates drop you get a light drizzle. That looks like the case this run. Once we lose the rates we lose frozen precip... in reality it could just be precip cuts off and lingers slightly as the low pulls away

To follow up on this, I went on pivotal to get exact qpf amounts. From the time RDU switches over to plain rain on the Nam, about .1 additional qpf falls. This is next to nothing. For the entire storm RDU sees about 1.8" of frozen qpf

 

[deltadog03]

I don't think the Nam and 3km Nam was that bad for the trailing ULL. We will watch .Wish the sfc was colder tho . Main system plasters the Carolinas.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Looks a bit cleaner than the horrible TT map.



Kuchera:
View attachment 8862

10:1
View attachment 8863

That's 18z

 

[Avalanche]

Hmmm


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Imagine that with favorable surface temps....Wowzers!!!

 

[SD]

Hmmm


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Can't get much better than that

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