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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Fv3 still looks like snow north of 85 to me. In South Carolina if it verifies fv3 will be the go to model. I think nam slows it down way to much
 
So here is an interesting model to pay attention to. New in 2016, was a response for the US to get better numerical modeling after our failure with Sandy in 2011. Just had major upgrades to version 3.0. It's the NBM (National Blend of Models)...very similar to the NWS superblend. It contains input from pretty much everything (ECMWF, GFS, Canadian, NAM12/3k, some WRFs, HRRR, etc). It has a ton of interesting parameters (Unfortunately I haven't been able to create plots for all of them yet), like variable ratio snow accumulation, positive energy of warm nose, negative energy of cold surface layer, line and flat ice accumulation and more. This model cycles every hour, so there are frequent updates. Here is the simulated reflectivity with p-type. While plots here only go to 36 hours, it runs out to 240 hours, although not all parameters are available after a certain number of hours. I'm interested to see how this pans out, it's basically a massive ensemble mean, so probably pretty well.

https://media.giphy.com/media/1zR7XLSCwPbnt3XVrx/giphy.gif
 
scroback said:
So here is an interesting model to pay attention to. New in 2016, was a response for the US to get better numerical modeling after our failure with Sandy in 2011. Just had major upgrades to version 3.0. It's the NBM (National Blend of Models)...very similar to the NWS superblend. It contains input from pretty much everything (ECMWF, GFS, Canadian, NAM12/3k, some WRFs, HRRR, etc). It has a ton of interesting parameters (Unfortunately I haven't been able to create plots for all of them yet), like variable ratio snow accumulation, positive energy of warm nose, negative energy of cold surface layer, line and flat ice accumulation and more. This model cycles every hour, so there are frequent updates. Here is the simulated reflectivity with p-type. While plots here only go to 36 hours, it runs out to 240 hours, although not all parameters are available after a certain number of hours. I'm interested to see how this pans out, it's basically a massive ensemble mean, so probably pretty well.

https://media.giphy.com/media/1zR7XLSCwPbnt3XVrx/giphy.gif
Click to expand...

Here's a still image in case you can't get the giphy link to load1544346000 (1).png
 
FV3 is pretty much the same, its been consistent all week. The backside is pretty much a no go. Every model seems to have trended warm with it today.
 
Just gonna drop this bad boy off here since pivotal isn't finished (although it is truly insane in the snow areas):

fv3p_asnow_eus_17.png


The FV3 is either the new DGEX or the kang.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Just gonna drop this bad boy off here since pivotal isn't finished (although it is truly insane in the snow areas):

fv3p_asnow_eus_17.png


The FV3 is either the new DGEX or the kang.
Click to expand...
Look.. if the gfs was any good they wouldn’t replace it with fv3. So considering it’s updated technology. It might be right
 
FV3 finally in the process of caving. Can’t wait to see its Kucharacha map.
 
hikingtheappalachians said:
So the past few days I have been thinking of heading up for a snowy day hike northeast of Cashiers, near Lake Toxaway, tomorrow... (I don't have Sunday available). This dry air modeled by the NAM concerns me a bit. Is there any past history on this? It's only a 7-hour difference, but for me, the difference between snow starting on a hike at 5 PM versus snow starting on a hike at 10 AM would be humongous. It seems like most modeling supports a start around 10 AM (except the 12km NAM), and GSP is similar, having changed the start time of their WSW to noon. How long does dry air take to erode usually in situations like this?
Click to expand...

Anyone?
 
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