• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Just checking in. The reason the nam has sooo much less frozen precip across the area is because it is MUCH slower at getting meaningful precip into NC.

By 12z Sunday the fv3 has southern Wake passing one inch in qpf while the nam barely has .3.

Basically, the quicker precip means we take advantage of our cold before it erodes.

The question is who is right.

2DC49284-E4ED-48E4-912B-0A660A04C06C.gif
 
f4f0495e4f3feb48e608b7e4448784e6.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
So at this point isn’t this model by itself. I mean that’s mostly sleet for western nc not snow. I just don’t buy it
 
Just like the 12z run, the 18z NAM soundings support snow for CHA from 9z to 18z tomorrow with temps in 30s and around 1/2" of QPF. Lookout and Signal mountains, and the Cumberland Plateau could potentially see a surprise 4"+ if indeed the NAM is handling the thermals right.
 
Last edited:
Just checking in. The reason the nam has sooo much less frozen precip across the area is because it is MUCH slower at getting meaningful precip into NC.

By 12z Sunday the fv3 has southern Wake passing one inch in qpf while the nam barely has .3.

Basically, the quicker precip means we take advantage of our cold before it erodes.

The question is who is right.

View attachment 8845
Blend the model that shows the slowest arrival of precip with the model that shows the least precip with the model that shows the quickest exit of the precip with the model that shows the warmest mid levels with the model that shows the warmest surface temps. That blend works really well for the Raleigh area.
 
See guys look at this. These are the driest sounding a before onset for nam and fv3.

Look st the MASSIVE dry air on nam. Can we verify this with a current map somewhere?

Maybe a met can explain why there is this large of a difference?

2BFB5311-74DD-4622-8824-D0AA8E3DF544.gif
 
The FV3 has been rock solid for days not wavering much at all. I think in the end we are going to see why it is replacing the GFS.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Just popping in to remind everyone that the 10" snow I received last December is the reason I havent been able to chime in on our first significant storm this year. Apparently, this whole "selling your soul" deal ain't what its cracked up to be.

Haha


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Just checking in. The reason the nam has sooo much less frozen precip across the area is because it is MUCH slower at getting meaningful precip into NC.

By 12z Sunday the fv3 has southern Wake passing one inch in qpf while the nam barely has .3.

Basically, the quicker precip means we take advantage of our cold before it erodes.

The question is who is right.

View attachment 8845
Definitely a big factor here. The extending finger is impressive so far, but a big reason why the NAM seems to delay the precip is that it evaporates in order to moisten the column (lower dewpoints over NC). On a positive note, the NAM was way too slow on its earlier runs, and so there is some slim hope that such a trend could continue. That seemed to be more of a low pressure location problem, though.
 
Here's my forecast map for this storm. I definitely think the mid-level warm nose as usual isn't being properly handled by most of the models, deep layer veering profiles and a 40-60+ KT jet being shown at 700 hPa certainly gives off a bad omen if you're expecting all snow even those even as far NW as the Triad seem increasingly probable to mix with sleet for a while. We'll see what happens.
December 8-10 2018 NC Forecast Snowmap.png
 
Here's my forecast map for this storm. I definitely think the mid-level warm nose as usual isn't being properly handled by most of the models, deep layer veering profiles and a 40-60+ KT jet being shown at 700 hPa certainly gives off a bad omen if you're expecting all snow even those even as far NW as the Triad seem increasingly probable to mix with sleet for a while. We'll see what happens.
View attachment 8848
yeah im headed up to the mountain house in cashiers. i would like to be further east like bevard and i agree that the global models arn't resolving this warm nose properly.. However, im hoping unlike the NAM that it is more sleet than freezing rain but im afraid the mountain house is too far west... ugh
 
So the past few days I have been thinking of heading up for a snowy day hike northeast of Cashiers, near Lake Toxaway, tomorrow... (I don't have Sunday available). This dry air modeled by the NAM concerns me a bit. Is there any past history on this? It's only a 7-hour difference, but for me, the difference between snow starting on a hike at 5 PM versus snow starting on a hike at 10 AM would be humongous. It seems like most modeling supports a start around 10 AM (except the 12km NAM), and GSP is similar, having changed the start time of their WSW to noon. How long does dry air take to erode usually in situations like this?
 
NWS has 5-11" for Charlotte. I take it some of you think that's too high ? I see Webber has 1-3 for Charlotte LOL. What does Webber see that the NWS doesn't ?
 
Back
Top