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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Looks like the ice is worse as you go from Raleigh to Charlotte. Maybe the snow up this way will be more then.
 
NAM continuing to show a significant threat from all p-types. I'm going to my parents house in Greensboro, which is right on the SN/IP line, which probably means there will actually be a ton of IP when the warm nose roars in1544400000 (2).png 1544400000 (1).png 1544400000.png . Might be the most I've ever seen there since I moved here in 2003
 
The NWS in Tennessee has more confidence at seeing snow for my area then I do. I really am not excepting any accumulation but according to this I could.

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cg2916 said:
Do ZR maps usually verify well or are they usually inflated like snowfall maps?
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They are almost always overestimated. They assume a 1:1 ratio of QPF to ice, and that almost never happens, even under ideal conditions. In this setup..with heavy precip rates (resulting in runoff) and marginal temps (upper 20s to low 30s, everything is not going to freeze on contact), I'd probably 1/3 to 1/4 some of those maps
 
Looks like around 4 inches of snow with ice on top is a safe bet around my way.

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FamouslyHot said:
Pretty serious ice threat on the NAM
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It's really going to depend on how dry the air is and how much of a continued inflow of dry air there is during the precip (to aid in evaporative cooling to keep the temp below freezing). Really going to have to watch the obs to find this out
 
scroback said:
They are almost always overestimated. They assume a 1:1 ratio of QPF to ice, and that almost never happens, even under ideal conditions. In this setup..with heavy precip rates (resulting in runoff) and marginal temps (upper 20s to low 30s, everything is not going to freeze on contact), I'd probably 1/3 to 1/4 some of those maps
Click to expand...
Also, arent temps going to be kind of marginal for ice, like in the low 30s ? Or is this a situation where it will be 25 and ice?
 
High 53 now in chapel hill and cloud deck thickening to blanket this warm area in. Surface temps are going to be marginal, hopefully we can get them down to where accumulations can be made early near the onset.
 
There might be Thundersnow/thundersleet in these convective bands, those rates are going to be insane
 

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