• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

1300m said:
The big question for me -- who has been asked to prepare a snow map for the state of NC this morning -- is how much more adjusting are we going to see based on the weaker, further south shortwave trend. Euro/FV3 have consistently been shaving off the northern edge and concurrently increasing totals further east as the mid-level low and associated WAA remain less amplified. Have to believe the 12z NAM will follow and should be an interesting run for it.
Click to expand...
You know this already, but trust your knowledge and gut .still not easy at all .My honest thoughts are this still has some room south. Mainly for the reasons you mentioned above .
 
deltadog03 said:
You know this already, but trust your knowledge and gut .still not easy at all .My honest thoughts are this still has some room south. Mainly for the reasons you mentioned above .
Click to expand...

If you look strictly at models there is a lot of credit toward the colder more suppressed runs. My post on the last page shows just how north the nam was in the West while fv3 was basically spot on.

So that says to discredit nam some. It also made a decent shift south 00 to 06.

That’s solely relying on models though. That’s risky in itself.
 
The ULL looks interesting for nc on the gfs, has a 2014 lookish to it, above the broad but weak warm nose(still below 0°c) there are some very steep lapse rates
 
Tarheel1 said:
Does a more South track guarantee colder air for those who get precip? It it suppression or just Southern trend?
Click to expand...
It can't hurt! It will cut down totals on the northern edge, but will also reduce WAA at the same time, so a good thing for those further south. It seems like the southern trend is a subtle bit of two things - the shortwave itself appears to be ticking south and not interacting with the northern stream quite as quickly early on AND a piece of northern stream energy is also trending further south helping hold the southeastern Canada vortex further south a tad longer each run.

fv3p_z500_vort_namer_fh60_trend.gif
 
1300m said:
It can't hurt! It will cut down totals on the northern edge, but will also reduce WAA at the same time, so a good thing for those further south. It seems like the southern trend is a subtle bit of two things - the shortwave itself appears to be ticking south and not interacting with the northern stream quite as quickly early on AND a piece of northern stream energy is also trending further south helping hold the southeastern Canada vortex further south a tad longer each run.

View attachment 8793
Click to expand...
Agreed! That's why I also think the euro (which is further west and SW with the backside ULL) has a better handle on it vs progressive GFS suite .
 
And that would allow for a longer duration of snow in nc if the wave continues to have that look
 
drfranklin said:
Tarheel and Jimmy - where are you on this map:
47495094_1886873261410022_4297953307588034560_o.jpg
Click to expand...
The bottom of the i in Greenville
 
@tarheel who’s bathtub do I need to slosh in to get that 06z Euro snow map to verify? damn
 
nam looks like the snow line will be a bit south again, snow line right over clt and points west towards the upstate at hr 27
 
theblendybabe said:
I’m stalking but I’m in Easley, do you really think it’ll pan out?
Click to expand...
I’m pretty sure TR gets 10” of snow/sleet mix. Down our way, Easley , Simpsonville , 2-4” of mostly sleet, would be great and about the highest we should hope for
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top