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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

What were the earliest predictions for rainfall in areas of GA that are seeing it?
I feel like the "finger" is way ahead of schedule, although it shouldn't matter much at this very moment.

I saw on some of the forecasts that there was a 20% chance today.
 
I put it in the obs thread, but I have had sleet here mixed with light rain since at least 7am. Still coming down.
 
Shawn said:
What were the earliest predictions for rainfall in areas of GA that are seeing it?
I feel like the "finger" is way ahead of schedule, although it shouldn't matter much at this very moment.

I saw on some of the forecasts that there was a 20% chance today.
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Our forecast was no rain until evening as of last night even though one model on 11 Alive showed this precip coming in but the others didn't so he said it'd be dry most likely. My current NWS shows Rain after 1PM now though as opposed to Cloudy for today as of last night. I expect this will keep us from reaching 48 today as forecast but who knows. So, they already have missed this mornings light rain but doubt it means anything of significance honestly.
 
Living on the sounds of NC is just like SC....Everyone to your west and north gets snow and you get simple rain. Although, if that finger thump of snow gets in and this moves farther off the coast that will benefit mountains to coast and down into SC.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
What a nightmare this is going to be for forecasters. Especially for those just south of 85. Looks to be setting up for a shellacking for all. This one just has that feeling to it
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Go back to sleep! It was all a dream, and your still getting cold rain
 
Fountainguy97 said:
The 06z euro is way improved!

Doubles snow for many eastern areas like Wake.
View attachment 8786
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The big question for me -- who has been asked to prepare a snow map for the state of NC this morning -- is how much more adjusting are we going to see based on the weaker, further south shortwave trend. Euro/FV3 have consistently been shaving off the northern edge and concurrently increasing totals further east as the mid-level low and associated WAA remain less amplified. Have to believe the 12z NAM will follow and should be an interesting run for it.
 
1300m said:
The big question for me -- who has been asked to prepare a snow map for the state of NC this morning -- is how much more adjusting are we going to see based on the weaker, further south shortwave trend. Euro/FV3 have consistently been shaving off the northern edge and concurrently increasing totals further east as the mid-level low and associated WAA remain less amplified. Have to believe the 12z NAM will follow and should be an interesting run for it.
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We will see and know a lot at 12z

But here is the nam trend from last night so it is moving still while globals are not coming north.
193B6DA0-7068-42F1-AD31-C4CD60EB96B4.gif
 

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1300m said:
The big question for me -- who has been asked to prepare a snow map for the state of NC this morning -- is how much more adjusting are we going to see based on the weaker, further south shortwave trend. Euro/FV3 have consistently been shaving off the northern edge and concurrently increasing totals further east as the mid-level low and associated WAA remain less amplified. Have to believe the 12z NAM will follow and should be an interesting run for it.
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Does a more South track guarantee colder air for those who get precip? It it suppression or just Southern trend?
 
Tarheel and Jimmy - where are you on this map:
47495094_1886873261410022_4297953307588034560_o.jpg
 
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