If any icing occurs anywhere near Raleigh you better watch out. Strongest winds anywhere in the state. Power outages likely given qpf I would think.
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
Flo
Member
It really is amazing how we are literally an hr away from the snow/miserable cold rain line every time.
Kylo
Member
Wow, the GFS was south, dying wave.
farleydawg792
Member
Morning discussion from the FFC.....
LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... Attention turns to winter storm potential for Sat night into Sun and unfortunately, still seeing a wide array of model solutions. We are just beginning to see some of the hi res guidance entering into the picture for this time period and not surprisingly, they are a little more bullish in developing and maintaining the wedge for this event. GFS on the other hand holds onto almost none of the cold air and keeps most all areas above freezing and consequently no ice accretion. ECMWF is somewhat of a middle ground of the guidance and at least indicates some ice potential for the forecast area. It is always a tough call with dynamics suggesting a relatively quick erosion of wedge and diabatic processes suggesting it may hold longer than models suggest. For this cycle, we have favored the NAM12 blended with some hi res guidance which does allow for some below freezing temps for the NE corridor. This occur mainly after 06Z Sun over Towns and White but does spread all the way into the NE metro by 12Z. QPF values continue high, so would not take long to see issues assuming we do remain below freezing in those locations. We may prove in the end to be too high with our ice accretions but are advertising a shade over a tenth of an inch of ice for this event. This would be below warning criteria but we are also anticipating some snow and sleet at higher elevations as well. The areas that have the most overlap of ice and snow are Towns, White, Union and Lumpkin counties and will be issuing a watch with this issuance for those locations. It should be noted that most locations North of I20 and east of I75 are only a degree or two away from also seeing significant icing issues so please stay tuned for any changes to the forecast. Still anticipating multiple shortwaves both Sun night and Mon night to affect the area. Colder temps aloft will allow for a rain/snow mix Sun night and snow showers Mon night. QPF by this time period is quite low and accumulations should be confined to the higher elevations once again.
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LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... Attention turns to winter storm potential for Sat night into Sun and unfortunately, still seeing a wide array of model solutions. We are just beginning to see some of the hi res guidance entering into the picture for this time period and not surprisingly, they are a little more bullish in developing and maintaining the wedge for this event. GFS on the other hand holds onto almost none of the cold air and keeps most all areas above freezing and consequently no ice accretion. ECMWF is somewhat of a middle ground of the guidance and at least indicates some ice potential for the forecast area. It is always a tough call with dynamics suggesting a relatively quick erosion of wedge and diabatic processes suggesting it may hold longer than models suggest. For this cycle, we have favored the NAM12 blended with some hi res guidance which does allow for some below freezing temps for the NE corridor. This occur mainly after 06Z Sun over Towns and White but does spread all the way into the NE metro by 12Z. QPF values continue high, so would not take long to see issues assuming we do remain below freezing in those locations. We may prove in the end to be too high with our ice accretions but are advertising a shade over a tenth of an inch of ice for this event. This would be below warning criteria but we are also anticipating some snow and sleet at higher elevations as well. The areas that have the most overlap of ice and snow are Towns, White, Union and Lumpkin counties and will be issuing a watch with this issuance for those locations. It should be noted that most locations North of I20 and east of I75 are only a degree or two away from also seeing significant icing issues so please stay tuned for any changes to the forecast. Still anticipating multiple shortwaves both Sun night and Mon night to affect the area. Colder temps aloft will allow for a rain/snow mix Sun night and snow showers Mon night. QPF by this time period is quite low and accumulations should be confined to the higher elevations once again.
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packfan98
Moderator
Nice read from the WPC Heavy Snowfall Discussion:
"Guidance has trended southward this morning in response to a stronger and drier high pressure to the north wedging down along the eastern side of the Appalachians. SW flow aloft will transport increasing moisture on WAA and intense isentropic upglide, causing precipitation to overspread the region from south to north early Saturday, and persisting through Monday morning. Initially, precipitation may all be freezing rain/sleet, but intensifying frontogenesis will cause dynamic cooling of the column changing the precip over to snow in the terrain of SC/NC and points north towards WV. A prolonged period of heavy snow is likely in this area, and WPC probabilities show a high risk for 8 inches of snow, with a moderate risk for 12 or more. South and east of the maximum area of snow, a sharp gradient is likely where the 850-700mb warm nose greater than 0C lifts northward. The mean flow is easterly, which is not as robust as a more typical SE wind to erode the wedge to permit warm nose advection into the area. Additionally, diabatic cooling due to precipitation falling into the wedge will likely reinforce or intensify that feature, causing an increase in the pressure gradient, and a southward push of colder air due to isallobaric acceleration. This suggests heavy snow is likely into the upstate of SC, and eastward towards the Triangle of NC, as well as approaching the Coastal Plain of SE VA late on Day 3. Here, WPC probabilities are moderate for 4 inches. Well north, into WV and KY, confidence is lower due to the southern trend in guidance and the dry air which will be tough to overcome, so WPC probabilities are lower for heavy snowfall."
"Guidance has trended southward this morning in response to a stronger and drier high pressure to the north wedging down along the eastern side of the Appalachians. SW flow aloft will transport increasing moisture on WAA and intense isentropic upglide, causing precipitation to overspread the region from south to north early Saturday, and persisting through Monday morning. Initially, precipitation may all be freezing rain/sleet, but intensifying frontogenesis will cause dynamic cooling of the column changing the precip over to snow in the terrain of SC/NC and points north towards WV. A prolonged period of heavy snow is likely in this area, and WPC probabilities show a high risk for 8 inches of snow, with a moderate risk for 12 or more. South and east of the maximum area of snow, a sharp gradient is likely where the 850-700mb warm nose greater than 0C lifts northward. The mean flow is easterly, which is not as robust as a more typical SE wind to erode the wedge to permit warm nose advection into the area. Additionally, diabatic cooling due to precipitation falling into the wedge will likely reinforce or intensify that feature, causing an increase in the pressure gradient, and a southward push of colder air due to isallobaric acceleration. This suggests heavy snow is likely into the upstate of SC, and eastward towards the Triangle of NC, as well as approaching the Coastal Plain of SE VA late on Day 3. Here, WPC probabilities are moderate for 4 inches. Well north, into WV and KY, confidence is lower due to the southern trend in guidance and the dry air which will be tough to overcome, so WPC probabilities are lower for heavy snowfall."
SimeonNC
Member
The FV3 is insane
Snowflowxxl
Member
The backside keeps trending warmer. Really gonna be depressed if it ends up rain
Nam needs to hurry and get the colder snowier solution quick, running out of time and running into its best range
Sumterite
Member
Think Sumter could get an inch?
IDK, but the ice maps coming out aren't pretty for us. So far. Sumter might squeak by with predominantly rain on the main system.... still waiting on further imagery.
Kuchera shows around 0.3 - 0.5 of an inch of snow.
Sumterite
Member
I am hoping for rain. I remember the last ice storm. That was awful here with power lost for quite a while.
Here is soundings at 84 and 90 in atl area from 6z gfs as it shows precip over head. Really close to backend snow could be a mix.
GFS looks extremely suppressed guys.
They're trimming back watches/warnings out West right now like Oklahoma region cause of the track being further South in real time.