This little paragraph from Rah NWS loaded with good info and spells out the challenges nicely....
-What to
watch out for/what could change: First, the inland
penetration of warm air on the N side of coastal lows is always
problematic. This could cause a significant warm nose to develop
aloft, shifting snow over to more sleet or freezing rain in some
areas. Second, if surface temperatures don`t warm up as advertised
on Sun, especially along and E of the Highway 1 corridor, wintry
precip could last longer, increasing accumulations of both snow and
ice. Third, there are indications in the models that a band of
heavier convective precip is possible over the Southeast, just
inland to just off the Southeast coast, and this could serve to
interrupt transport of high
moisture into central
NC; if this were
to occur, liquid equivalent precip amounts would be lower. Finally,
if we can achieve banded snow at any point in this event, we could
potentially see localized zones of very heavy snowfall over portions
of the Piedmont.
d
