euro kuchera map shifted nw vs 00z.
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
TigerSnow
Member
I've never seen so many debbie downers or negativity before. It amazes me. It's weather it will change. Fact is we do not know what will happen right up until game time almost. We have the players in place and now we just have to see how it all shakes out. For early December it is about all we can ask for.
RollTide18
Member
Ride the NAM till it has a fiery crash
Kylo
Member
It moves NW because the main band is NW of us, if we kept heavy banding it would probably stay frozen. Front end thump, dry slot works too. If Raleigh gets 2" of sleet/snow I would call that a major victory for December. Heck that would be the 2nd biggest snow we had since 2015, almost 4 years ago.
The warm nose can be above/below 850 hPa
Still liking an inch for Raleigh, followed by freezing rain and then rain. Charlotte could do a bit better...maybe 3” before the changeover. GSO looks good for around 6-7” and will probably stay all frozen. The corridor from roughly Boone to Asheville should be the sweet spot with 12-15”.
I'd agree, but I don't see too much of a ZR threat in Raleigh, surface temps are just too marginal. I think GSO may get several of those inches in sleet too
Sandbar
Member
Placement of the high is crucial
Yup....Unless something changes I wholeheartedly agree but were are now at that point where things are more apt to trend bad than good in my neck of the woods. Very little room for error has reared its ugly head.....with marginal cold source to work with everything has to be placed perfectly and move perfectly for the those of us on the fringes.
Yeah, I don't expect much ZR here, unless we really start to see a reversal on the CAD situation in the next 24-36 hours. Very discouraging to see these 1040 highs become 1030 highs as we near game time. But it's typical, I guess.
whatalife
Moderator
Agreed and I doubt we see a 1041 like last nights nam run...
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Kylo
Member
Some subtle or not so subtle changes in the atlantic blocking. You can see why the backside stuff isn't as good, though still time for that change. Our 50/50 lifts NE but another lobe rotates down, so now there is an alley to escape further east.
with rah likely to beef up their wording this afternoon, it reminds me of jan 2017 when they were calling for big totals even when the nam was firing warning shots on ptypes. i think their low end total was 4-5" or something while the nam showed rain and sleet.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Euro showing 7 to 10 for Wake. Really, not sure why folks even come here to discuss the models if they already make up their minds up they are wrong and what will happen.
Storm5
Member
Don’t listen to them . Enjoy your snow man . Jealousy brings out negative comments
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Uh oh, the transition is occurring. The nowcast time phase is about to commence.
Really not sure why some even come on here to hug snowfall maps when they know they're going to be wrong.
SimeonNC
Member
I feel like CLT points north will stay all frozen, I'm anticipating the surface temps being below freezing for most of the event . It won't be all snow but I doubt that much of it will be rain here.
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As long as it's FROZEN...
Kylo
Member
Yeah, if people in Raleigh are expecting 6" that isn't happening. But, front end 1-2" with some sleet then transition to rain is in the realm of possibilities. I wouldn't put money on that though.