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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

Brick Tamland said:
I wouldn't call one run a trend yet.
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I think a lot of what people are seeing is largely model "noise" where we are noticing tiny 20-50 mile shifts north/south in various things like the 850 0C line, dewpoints, rain/snow line, etc. I agree, for this to be a trend warmer we would need to see the 18z and 00z models also continue warmer. If they go back cooler this evening then it shows we are just seeing run to run variability. We also need to get fully in range of the RGEM and 3km NAM and then see a few runs of those models to see any potential trends. I also expect precip will move in a little quicker than modeled, usually these overrunning events see that. The RGEM has it moving in early Saturday AM.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png
 
I would not be shocked at all if it verified, but I find the 12z 12km NAM suspect because it shows a much later arrival of precipitation than the 3km and other models. It also seems to be much drier with the "front end thump" than other models.

Something else to consider: if temperatures at RDU are just a couple degrees colder than predicted by the GFS could we be looking at a crippling ice storm similar to 2002? NAM shows subfreezing temperatures for most of the event. In the 2002 storm, temperatures hovered in the 30-32 degree range and that was enough to cause major impacts.
 
Lol what? They clearly didn't see the 12Z runs.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1059 AM EST Thu Dec 6 2018


.UPDATE...
Forecast looks to be on track, with only minor updates to
temperature and dew point grids through the afternoon. Continue to
evaluate winter precip potential through early next week, with
some adjustments expected with the afternoon forecast package
following evaluation of latest model runs. At this time, looks
like freezing rain potential is increasing for nightime periods
over the weekend.
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CyclonicFury said:
I would not be shocked at all if it verified, but I find the 12z 12km NAM suspect because it shows a much later arrival of precipitation than the 3km and other models. It also seems to be much drier with the "front end thump" than other models.

Something else to consider: if temperatures at RDU are just a couple degrees colder than predicted by the GFS could we be looking at a crippling ice storm similar to 2002? NAM shows subfreezing temperatures for most of the event. In the 2002 storm, temperatures hovered in the 30-32 degree range and that was enough to cause major impacts.
Click to expand...

An ice storm is possible, but unfortunately it's a self limiting process due to latent heat release, and given that the high weakens and moves off to the east later on in the storm( when the warm nose is strongest ), we lose our source of dry air to offset the latent heat release of freezing, so we'll probably just hover around 32. Earlier on when we could be below freezing, I bet 80% of the precip falling from the sky will be sleet
 
NAM was worse, GFS wasn't as good, and now the Canadian and FV3 are colder and snowier. I guess we get the model wars now.
 
Fv3 has me with a paste job, and a county south all rain, that will haunt me throughout the storm if it verifies
 
Is it considered model noise when the Euro comes in giving me rain and 37? Or should I still expect snow and ice?
 
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