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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

deltadog03 said:
I know this won't be a super popular opinion, but at this point you just have to accept what he eventually will happen, (and to be honest there's really not much consistency with any of the models run to run and within the OP) honestly to me this storm is a huge bonus right now for everyone. The fact that we're having this conversation, and not having to punt all or some of December is awesome. There will be winners and there will be losers and that's just the weather, well hell that's life .
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Agreed, and the 10 day forecast for my area is showing temperatures at or below normal for the entire 10 day period. Obviously that can change but I'm not seeing any torch 70s or higher like we've seen in some past Nino Decembers.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah I don't see this completely changing over to rain at least for a long duration as the NWS expects from the Triangle area & points NW, not with a CAD dome of this ferocity being able to constantly resupply cold/dry air into the piedmont.
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They will play catch up as usual... it will play out something like advisories NW of the triangle, then as the system unfolds a tier of counties to the SE will get added and then as it continues to unfold another tier of counties, lol won't be the first time.

Btw tonight's 0z models will have more data ingested correct?
 
CyclonicFury said:
NWS RAH seems to be expecting heartbreak for RDU snow lovers by expecting mostly a rain/snow mix changing to rain with a high of 38. Maybe they are on to something but nearly every model is colder and most show predominantly snow now. Still 3 days out from the event so they must be thinking a trend of the snow line north and west is still possible.
"Sunday
A chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 10am, then rain and snow likely between 10am and noon, then rain after noon. High near 38. Chance of precipitation is 80%."
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I think Raleigh is also banking on surface temps never getting close to 32 and the WAA will have to be rather stout in their eyes to eliminate sleet.
 
deltadog03 said:
I know this won't be a super popular opinion, but at this point you just have to accept what he eventually will happen, (and to be honest there's really not much consistency with any of the models run to run and within the OP) honestly to me this storm is a huge bonus right now for everyone. The fact that we're having this conversation, and not having to punt all or some of December is awesome. There will be winners and there will be losers and that's just the weather, well hell that's life .
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Amazingly, in an often backloaded NINO winter like this (plus climo), there's certainly reason to believe considerably more snow/ice is on the way in January or February...
 
CyclonicFury said:
Even if we don't get much snow accumulation from this system, high temperatures for Sunday in the RDU area have trended colder on models. NAM only has Wake County at 29 degrees on Sunday at 18z, and a signifciant winter event would occur at that temperature regardless of whether it was snow or not. I'm not sure what model NWS RAH and most local forecasts are holding onto as nearly every model that I have seen has a high temperature near freezing, not near 40 degrees F.
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They're taking things slowly and going the conservative route for now... better to forecast warmer/rain scenario and adjust colder if needed as we get closer than to forecast a big snow this far out that busts and get a lot of flack over it. It's a tough world to be in with the way social media is these days and how people just see a certain amount of snow forecast and expect that to happen even if things change.
 
Just something to chew on. The NWS looks at the same data everybody here does....."but"....They have to make a "responsible forecast" and you have to factor in climatology and historical data as well as model data. The models could be way off in the transition zones. So could the NWS forecast. Todays runs "should" begin to dial things in and the forecast may or may not change accordingly for places line RDU and CLT to name a few
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I think clt will see a front thump of snow then get a sleetfest, happens everytime then go a few counties up and you have a nice snowstorm with some sleet
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usually don't even have to go a few counties up. Northern and Southern Mecklenburg county are typically vastly different. I live just outside of uptown, a storm last year gave me a raging sleet fest while 20 minutes away at Mountain Island Lake got a big snow and 20 minutes south towards Pineville had almost all rain.
 
Avalanche said:
I think Raleigh is also banking on surface temps never getting close to 32 and the WAA will have to be rather stout in their eyes to eliminate sleet.
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Well the WAA will actually have to occur near the surface which doesn't happen in CAD, the cold high to our north will have to completely collapse earlier on in the storm, or the precipitation rates will have to be so intense that sensible heat transfer from aloft plus change of phase due to freezing will shove the warm nose towards the ground, neither of which seem fairly plausible at this stage anyway. Again, remember that WAA aloft is actually a process that strengthens & reinforces the CAD dome because at the top of the dome there's usually a huge warm inversion, having WAA aloft coinciding with cold/dry advection near the ground will only make the CAD stronger.
 
RealtorWeatherGirlGA said:
For GA probably tomorrow evening even into Saturday. There is still so much uncertainty for here that, it will be constantly updating any advisory, watches or warnings. NE Mountains will likely be issued a warning tomorrow at some point if things verify.
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Theres already a special weather statement...:):weenie:
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well the WAA will actually have to occur near the surface which doesn't happen in CAD, the cold high to our north will have to completely collapse earlier on in the storm, or the precipitation rates will have to be so intense that sensible heat transfer from aloft plus change of phase due to freezing will shove the warm nose towards the ground, neither of which seem fairly plausible at this stage anyway. Again, remember that WAA aloft is actually a process that strengthens & reinforces the CAD dome because at the top of the dome there's usually a huge warm inversion, having WAA aloft coinciding with cold/dry advection near the ground will only make the CAD stronger.
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Sounds like you think we don't have to worry about WAA that much with this storm.
 
snowlover91 said:
They're taking things slowly and going the conservative route for now... better to forecast warmer/rain scenario and adjust colder if needed as we get closer than to forecast a big snow this far out that busts and get a lot of flack over it. It's a tough world to be in with the way social media is these days and how people just see a certain amount of snow forecast and expect that to happen even if things change.
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Yes. We're weenies and like big snow maps. They're providing a service, and in their estimation, it's prudent to not overreact too quickly to models situations that have a history of fairly large swings, even at short leads. Honking for a Biblical snowstorm at this point makes no sense. Mentioning the chance for wintry weather, however, does make sense. For now.
 
Sandbar said:
Just something to chew on. The NWS looks at the same data everybody here does....."but"....They have to make a "responsible forecast" and you have to factor in climatology and historical data as well as model data. The models could be way off in the transition zones. So could the NWS forecast. Todays runs "should" begin to dial things in and the forecast may or may not change accordingly for places line RDU and CLT to name a few
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I think what they have failed to do is merely mention the other possibility.......that the triangle could end up with more snow and colder surface temps.
Personally, I have learned to trust what I've witnessed on this site as a better determinant factor into how my region is going to be.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well the WAA will actually have to occur near the surface which doesn't happen in CAD, the cold high to our north will have to completely collapse earlier on in the storm, or the precipitation rates will have to be so intense that sensible heat transfer from aloft plus change of phase due to freezing will shove the warm nose towards the ground, neither of which seem fairly plausible at this stage anyway. Again, remember that WAA aloft is actually a process that strengthens & reinforces the CAD dome because at the top of the dome there's usually a huge warm inversion, having WAA aloft coinciding with cold/dry advection near the ground will only make the CAD stronger.
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I might be off base here but I think if the CAD is indeed stronger than modeled I feel like that CLT proper at least won't have to worry about changing over to rain like most local forecasts are saying could happen but might need to worry about ZR.

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Showmeyourtds said:
Atlanta was and is more than likely going to have a cold rain. Areas along and especially north and east of Lake Lanier are the only places in Georgia that will flirt with a shot of impactful winter wx. Don’t let the occasional smash job on the FV3 or the NAM lead you to believe that the immediate Atlanta area (ITP) is going to get burried in snow or ice. Hasn’t ever been the case with this storm.
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That's a pretty bold statement considering the fine details have yet to be ironed out. I wouldn't count out Atlanta for ice until we know the strength of the CAD and HP placement.
 
For those of us in Wake and surrounding areas we need a slider and the front end to perform. At least we don't have one of the major models breaking away from the others with a negative solution....at this point! I keep waiting for it but so far they continue to align for the most part. Watching NAM and EURO closely today and ignoring the FV3 clown maps
 
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