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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

I think clt will see a front thump of snow then get a sleetfest, happens everytime then go a few counties up and you have a nice snowstorm with some sleet
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'd probably go 6-12" in the Triad and for most east of the mountains that have the best thermal profiles just based on the potential for significant mixing with sleet. The southern mountains are the only area I'd be confident enough for 12+
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Thanks. I was thinking the same amounts. In the Triangle debacle storm in 2017, I ended up with 5 inches of sleet/snow and .75" qpf. My best guess for my backyard this go round is 8 inches at the moment with closer to a foot in GSO and 12+ to the North and West of the Triad.
 
Just speaking for my area there is a huge difference between the GFS and it's replacement (FV3 obviously looks better) and I will say the sounding on the FV3 look very similar to the NAM at onset of precip, with the NAM being just a few degrees colder at the surface..... I'm cautiously optimistic about the frontend and that it can hold on longer than anticipated.
 
Andy Hamachek said:
When do watches and warnings start getting posted?
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For GA probably tomorrow evening even into Saturday. There is still so much uncertainty for here that, it will be constantly updating any advisory, watches or warnings. NE Mountains will likely be issued a warning tomorrow at some point if things verify.
 
packfan98 said:
Thanks. I was thinking the same amounts. In the Triangle debacle storm in 2017, I ended up with 5 inches of sleet/snow and .75" qpf. My best guess for my backyard this go round is 8 inches at the moment with closer to a foot in GSO and 12+ to the North and West of the Triad.
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Yeah I definitely remember that lol, we'll have at least double, if not triple the amount of QPF in some locations so we could see legitimate accumulations of sleet in a scenario like this. Something in the ballpark of 2-5" is realistic for the RDU-CLT corridor with Charlotte doing slightly better overall w/ a deeper CAD dome there.
 
NWS RAH seems to be expecting heartbreak for RDU snow lovers by expecting mostly a rain/snow mix changing to rain with a high of 38. Maybe they are on to something but nearly every model is colder and most show predominantly snow now. Still 3 days out from the event so they must be thinking a trend of the snow line north and west is still possible.
"Sunday
A chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 10am, then rain and snow likely between 10am and noon, then rain after noon. High near 38. Chance of precipitation is 80%."
 
NAM is rolling and out to hour 14 the heights in the NE US are pressing down a touch but otherwise no real changes. Should be interesting to see what this does at the end of the run. Still too far out to put much stock in what it shows, my rule of thumb is usually to not take it seriously until it's within hour 60 and in range of the 3km which is where it seems to get much better.
 
CyclonicFury said:
NWS RAH seems to be expecting heartbreak for RDU snow lovers by expecting mostly a rain/snow mix changing to rain with a high of 38. Maybe they are on to something but nearly every model is colder and most show predominantly snow now. Still 3 days out from the event so they must be thinking a trend of the snow line north and west is still possible.
"Sunday
A chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 10am, then rain and snow likely between 10am and noon, then rain after noon. High near 38. Chance of precipitation is 80%."
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Yeah I don't see this completely changing over to rain at least for a long duration as the NWS expects from the Triangle area & points NW, not with a CAD dome of this ferocity being able to constantly resupply cold/dry air into the piedmont.
 
I know this won't be a super popular opinion, but at this point you just have to accept what he eventually will happen, (and to be honest there's really not much consistency with any of the models run to run and within the OP) honestly to me this storm is a huge bonus right now for everyone. The fact that we're having this conversation, and not having to punt all or some of December is awesome. There will be winners and there will be losers and that's just the weather, well hell that's life .
 
CyclonicFury said:
NWS RAH seems to be expecting heartbreak for RDU snow lovers by expecting mostly a rain/snow mix changing to rain with a high of 38. Maybe they are on to something but nearly every model is colder and most show predominantly snow now. Still 3 days out from the event so they must be thinking a trend of the snow line north and west is still possible.
"Sunday
A chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 10am, then rain and snow likely between 10am and noon, then rain after noon. High near 38. Chance of precipitation is 80%."
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Most likely basing this off of past performance of storms. Probably estimating a pretty big warm nose that we usually always seem to get.
 
For those who have access to the 6z Euro, did it shift north/south with our system and colder or warmer? How did QPF look? I saw a snow map but since those only go out to hour 90 on the off hour runs it's tough to figure out much from it.
 
deltadog03 said:
I know this won't be a super popular opinion, but at this point you just have to accept what he eventually will happen, (and to be honest there's really not much consistency with any of the models run to run and within the OP) honestly to me this storm is a huge bonus right now for everyone. The fact that we're having this conversation, and not having to punt all or some of December is awesome. There will be winners and there will be losers and that's just the weather, well hell that's life .
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great point. past few years we were talking about pinning our hope on friggin february at this time of the year
 
Even if we don't get much snow accumulation from this system, high temperatures for Sunday in the RDU area have trended colder on models. NAM only has Wake County at 29 degrees on Sunday at 18z, and a signifciant winter event would occur at that temperature regardless of whether it was snow or not. I'm not sure what model NWS RAH and most local forecasts are holding onto as nearly every model that I have seen has a high temperature near freezing, not near 40 degrees F.
 
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